This report is structured around the specific objectives in the format of three stand-alone manuscripts that are in the process of submission to peer-reviewed journals. The first manuscript includes objectives 1-2, the second manuscript addresses objective 3, and the final manuscript objective 4. The overarching goal of the proposal was to understand how both recently experienced and projected water temperatures might influence population-specific patterns of embryo incubation, timing of hatching and fry emergence, and survival of sockeye salmon embryos. Additionally, we sought to explore the potential for adaptation in a heritable threshold life history trait that shapes whether an individual migrates to the ocean after either one or two years of freshwater rearing, and the demographic consequences of that evolution in the context of a changing climate. The specific objectives of the project were: 1) to use information on spawning timing of discrete populations and water temperatures to predict the timing of juvenile hatching and fry emergence under the range of conditions observed in the Kvichak and Wood River watersheds; 2) predict changes in water temperatures likely to be experienced by salmon populations in Iliamna Lake using downscaled Global Circulation Models under plausible scenarios of CO2 emissions through the year 2099; 3) conduct a controlled laboratory experiment to quantify the population-specific functional responses between timing of hatching and embryo survival under scenarios of freshwater warming; and 4) assess probabilities of persistence and likelihood for life history adaptation (smolting size threshold) to warming temperatures using individual-based eco-evolutionary models parameterized based on representative sockeye salmon populations in the Kvichak watershed.
