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ABSTRACT: Samples from 107 piñon pines (Pinns edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single-year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent...
Researchers representing each of the Colorado River Basin states as well as the Secretary of the Interior were presented with an interactive computer simulation of a progressively increasing drought and were given the collective opportunity to change the ways in which basin-wide and within-state water management were conducted. The purpose of this ?gaming? exercise was to identify rules for managing the Colorado River which are effective in preventing drought-caused damages to basin water users. This water management game was conducted three times, varying the collective choice roles for management of the river yet staying substantially within the current institution for management of the Colorado River known as...
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This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
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The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
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The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
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This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
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The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
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This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that can be calculated for different time periods to indicate periods of abnormal wetness or dryness. SPI is derived solely from monthly precipitation and can be compared across regions with different climates. The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation, and the probabilities are standardized so that an index of zero indicates the median precipitation amount (half of the historical precipitation amounts are below the median, and half are above the median). This dataset shows the average 12-month SPI (in classes ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry) for the three-month forecast period indentified...
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This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
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The MAPSS team together with long-time collaborator Chris Daly of the Spatial Climate Analysis Service is using Daly's PRISM model to produce high-resolution data grids of observed fire weather. The PRISM model produces interpolations of weather station data that are sensitive to topography, which is especially important in the complex, fire-prone terrain of the mountainous West. Input station data are gathered primarily from the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) SNOTEL networks. For mapped examples of the PRISM-generated historical weather data grids see the Spatial Climate Analysis Service's Web...
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This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that can be calculated for different time periods to indicate periods of abnormal wetness or dryness. SPI is derived solely from monthly precipitation and can be compared across regions with different climates. The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation, and the probabilities are standardized so that an index of zero indicates the median precipitation amount (half of the historical precipitation amounts are below the median, and half are above the median). This dataset shows the average 12-month SPI (in classes ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry) for the three-month forecast period indentified...
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This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
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Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 by 2.5 minute grid based upon the International Research Institute for Climate Predition's (IRI) Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP). Utilizing average monthly precipitation data from 1980 through 2000 at a resolution of 2.5 degrees, WASP assesses the precipitation deficit or surplus over a three month temporal window that is weighted by the magnitude of the seasonal cyclic variation in precipitation. The three months' averages are derived from the precipitation data and the median rainfall for the 21 year period is calculated for each grid cell. Grid cells where the three month running average of precipitation is less than 1 mm per day...
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This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
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This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3417/2017006): The Earth system is undergoing rapid, profound anthropogenic change. The primary axes of change include not only the climate system, but also the spread of invasive species, altered biogeochemical and hydrological cycles, modified disturbance regimes, and land degradation and conversion. These factors are influencing the distribution of species and the structure and function of ecosystems worldwide, interacting with climatic stressors that may preclude the persistence of many current species distributions and communities. Ecological disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks can interact with climate variability to precipitate abrupt change...


map background search result map search result map MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-December 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-December 2012 (based on NSIPP 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast June - August 2012 (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Palmer drought severity index forecast May - July 2012 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-August 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - June 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-July 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast JANUARY - JUNE 2012 (based on COLA 7-month weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast April - October (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast June - December 2011 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January - July 2011 (based on COLA 7-mo weather forecast) MCI DGVM high fire potential consensus forecast October-December, 2010 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January - July 2011 (based on COLA 7-mo weather forecast) MCI DGVM high fire potential consensus forecast October-December, 2010 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-December 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-December 2012 (based on NSIPP 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast June - August 2012 (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Palmer drought severity index forecast May - July 2012 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-August 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - June 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January-July 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-month weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast JANUARY - JUNE 2012 (based on COLA 7-month weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast April - October (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast June - December 2011 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution