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Abstract (from ESA): Estimating population size and resource selection functions (RSFs) are common approaches in applied ecology for addressing wildlife conservation and management objectives. Traditionally such approaches have been undertaken separately with different sources of data. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) provides a hierarchical framework for jointly estimating density and multi‐scale resource selection, and data integration techniques provide opportunities for improving inferences from SCR models. Despite the added benefits, there have been few applications of SCR‐RSF integration, potentially due to complexities of specifying and fitting such models. Here, we extend a previous integrated SCR‐RSF model...
Abstract (from AGU 100): This study investigates snowmelt and streamflow responses to cloudiness variability across the mountainous parts of the western United States. Twenty years (1996–2015) of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐derived cloud cover indices (CC) with 4‐km spatial and daily temporal resolutions are used as a proxy for cloudiness. The primary driver of nonseasonal fluctuations in daily mean solar insolation is the fluctuating cloudiness. We find that CC fluctuations are related to snowmelt and snow‐fed streamflow fluctuations, to some extent (correlations of <0.5). Multivariate linear regression models of daily snowmelt (MELT) and streamflow (ΔQ) variations are constructed for each...
A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948–2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate...
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To assess the current topography of the tidal marshes we conducted survey-grade elevation surveys at all sites between 2009 and 2013 using a Leica RX1200 Real Time Kinematic (RTK)Global Positioning System (GPS) rover (±1 cm horizontal, ±2 cm vertical accuracy; Leica Geosystems Inc., Norcross, GA; Figure 4). At sites with RTK network coverage (San Pablo, Petaluma, Pt. Mugu, and Newport), rover positions were received in real time from the Leica Smartnet system via a CDMA modem (www.lecia-geosystems.com). At sites without network coverage (Humboldt, Bolinas, Morro and Tijuana), rover positions were received in real time from a Leica GS10 antenna base station via radio link. When using the base station, we adjusted...
Climate change is affecting species and ecosystems across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Natural resource managers looking to maintain ecological function and species persistence have requested information to improve resource management in the face of climate change. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. An interdisciplinary team worked to understand the mechanisms that are driving...
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The South Central U.S. encompasses a wide range of ecosystem types and precipitation patterns. Average annual precipitation is less than 10 inches in northwest New Mexico but can exceed 60 inches further east in Louisiana. Much of the region relies on warm-season convective precipitation – that is, highly localized brief but intense periods of rainfall that are common in the summer. This type of precipitation is a significant driver of climate and ecosystem function in the region, but it is also notoriously difficult to predict since it occurs at such small spatial and temporal scales. While global climate models are helpful for understanding and predicting large-scale precipitation trends, they often do not capture...
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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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As the impacts of climate change amplify, understanding the consequences for wetlands will be critical for their sustainable management and conservation, particularly in arid regions such as the Columbia Plateau. The depressional wetlands in this region (wetlands located in topographic depressions where water can accumulate) are an important source of surface water during the summer months. However, their health depends directly on precipitation and evaporation, making them susceptible to changes in temperature and precipitation. Yet few tools for monitoring water movement patterns (hydrology) in and out of these landscapes currently exist, hindering efforts to model how they are changing. This project provided...
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The beaches of the Hawaiian Islands attract nearly 9 million visitors each year, who inject around $15.6 billion into the state’s economy and support almost 200,000 jobs. Beyond their economic importance, Hawaiian beaches are also culturally and ecologically valuable. However, climate change driven sea-level rise is causing many beaches to disappear, endangering property, infrastructure, and critical habitats. The goal of this project was to develop a method for forecasting erosion-vulnerable beach areas that could be used in coastal management planning. Researchers focused on the island of Kauaʻi, modeling beach response to rising sea level over the next century and producing maps that provide information about...
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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This dataset contains projections for San Francisco County. CoSMoS makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Data for Central California covers the coastline from Pt. Conception to Golden Gate Bridge. Methods...
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This data contains geographic extents of projected coastal flooding, low-lying vulnerable areas, and maximum/minimum flood potential (flood uncertainty) associated with the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This dataset contains projections from the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Santa Barbara County, north of Pt. Conception. CoSMoS makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Data for Central California...
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This data contains maximum model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains maximum depth of flooding (cm) in the region landward of the present-day shoreline for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average...


map background search result map search result map Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Can We Conserve Wetlands Under a Changing Climate? Mapping Wetland Hydrology in the Columbia Plateau Tijuana: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico CoSMoS v3.1 - Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 flood hazard projections: 100-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 1-year storm in Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 - San Francisco County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: average conditions in San Mateo County The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands CoSMoS v3.1 flood depth and duration projections: 100-year storm in Santa Cruz County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: average conditions in Monterey County Tijuana: Tidal Marsh Digital Elevation Model CoSMoS v3.1 - San Francisco County CoSMoS v3.1 - Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 1-year storm in Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi CoSMoS v3.1 flood depth and duration projections: 100-year storm in Santa Cruz County Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges CoSMoS v3.1 flood hazard projections: 100-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: average conditions in Monterey County Can We Conserve Wetlands Under a Changing Climate? Mapping Wetland Hydrology in the Columbia Plateau Improving Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Regional Climate Models Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands