Filters: Tags: rooftop solar (X)1 result (6ms)
Some theoretical results concerning the nature of the relationship between the scientific quality and economic value of imperfect weather forecasts are obtained. A prototype multistage decision-making model is considered, involving only two possible actions and two possible states of weather. This particular form of model is motivated by a real-world application known as the fruit-frost problem. For an infinite-horizon, discounted version of this model it is shown that economic value remains zero below a forecast quality threshold and then rises monotonically but nonlinearly above this threshold. In particular, the relative sensitivity of economic value to changes in the quality of forecasts increases as perfect...