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Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.
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This project applied sea-level rise (SLR) modeling approaches along the Pacific coast tidal gradient at a parcel scale through improved data collection tools and collaboration relevant to land managers. At selected salt marsh parcels in both the North Pacific and California LCCs, data collection techniques were employed to assess detailed baseline habitat elevations; tidal ranges, microclimate, and extreme weather events; sediment supply sources; vegetation community composition; and vertebrate population indices. The design provides resource managers with information on the value of different datasets and methods including their uncertainty, as well as determines their usefulness in climate change adaptation planning...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Alaska, British Columbia, CA-2, All tags...
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FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
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FY2014Land management agencies seek to understand how organisms use the landscape in order to develop management strategies that maintain healthy, resilient communities that have the ecological and evolutionary potential to respond to climate change. An ideal approach to understanding how organisms move through the landscape is by inferring ongoing and historic movements from patterns of genetic continuity that characterize regional sets of populations. From patterns of genetic connectivity we can infer the habitat and landscape characteristics that facilitate animal movement and species range shifts over both short and long timescales. Knowing the spatial distribution of critical linkages or corridors allows conservation...
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
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Successful conservation strategies in the face of climate change will require careful consideration of how changing climate will affect wildlife and habitats. Development of innovative, data-driven, accessible tools will assist in understanding and planning for those effects. This project was funded to (1) develop climate envelope models and associated prediction maps for 26 federally threatened and endangered terrestrial (T&E) vertebrate species occurring in peninsular Florida, (2) provide a technical guidebook for use and interpretation of climate envelope models, (3) develop visualization and social networking tools that will allow natural resource managers and the general public to view our models, and (4) create...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Applications and Tools, Climate change, Climate envelope models, Completed, Conservation planning, All tags...
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
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This project modeled the effects of future climate change on bird distributions and their status in the lower 48 states. Its goal was to examine more than 600 species of birds and produce more than 100 predictive scenarios for each species, resulting in more than 600,000 data layers for birds. The purpose of the project was to provide information critical to the design and implementation of management and conservation strategies that could be used by all Landscape Conservation Cooperatives.
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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This work provides a flexible and scalable framework to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) region. This is accomplished through use of lumped parameter, physically-based, conceptual hydrologic and stream temperature models formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This allows for model predictions of streamflow and temperature at ungaged locations and a formal accounting of model estimate uncertainty at each location, something not previously achieved in these models. These environmental models also link seamlessly with the land use and fish models. The goal for this project was to provide: 1) Estimates...
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Wetlands provide critical services to natural and human communities alike, forming important wildlife habitat, storing and filtering water, sequestering carbon, and offering opportunities for recreation. Unfortunately, not only are these valuable ecosystems understudied compared to others, but they are also among the most sensitive to climate change. Climate change threatens wetlands by altering temperature and precipitation, which cause changes in water level and water temperature. Due to this threat, the international community and domestic agencies alike have highlighted the need to better understand wetlands in the face of climate change, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the Ramsar Convention,...
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Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse...
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Human effects on the global climate system, principally through changing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, are expected to lead to significant warming and other associated changes in the climate worldwide. Human-induced climate changes are likely already observable in quantities such as the global mean temperature, and over the next century can be expected to include significant effects on the local environment in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands. The currently available climate change projections from global coupled atmosphere/ocean models, as summarized for example in the recent IPCC assessment reports, have very limited direct application to Hawaii or other Pacific islands,...
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Coral reefs are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Importantly though, the degree of threat varies for different coral reef areas due to differences in local and regional climate drivers. Climate models are based on the scientific community’s understanding of climate drivers and were used during this project to look forward or ‘project’ conditions in coral reef areas. The projections are global maps that depict changes in acidification and the frequency and severity of the temperature stress events that cause coral bleaching. The project team found that the date by which really severe bleaching is projected to occur annually varies with latitude. Beyond this...
map background search result map search result map Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit Using Dynamic Linear Modeling to Characterize Hydrologic Regimes and Detect Flow Modifications at Multiple Temporal Scales Future of Climate Change on a Species: A Tool for the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Envelope Models in Support of Landscape Conservation Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Using Dynamic Linear Modeling to Characterize Hydrologic Regimes and Detect Flow Modifications at Multiple Temporal Scales Climate Envelope Models in Support of Landscape Conservation Future of Climate Change on a Species: A Tool for the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives