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We will develop a set of linked models to help predict the effects of climate change on rivers and endangered species. These will include watershed- and reach-scale models to predict streamflow, water temperatures, and other fish habitat metrics under various climatic scenarios for the reaches used by species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), plus a combined bioenergetics and life-cycle model (to be done by the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS]) to assess the impact of these factors on fish growth, reproduction, and survival. We propose to test the model framework at a site on the Methow River, Washington, to explore additional opportunities for collaboration and model development.
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This research focuses on understanding processes controlling temporal and spatial variability in aquatic carbon fluxes in headwater streams. Headwater streams are areas of active carbon cycling because of steep topographic gradients, complex soil and vegetation patterns, and an abundance of small lakes and streams. The project will combine information from the following major components: High-frequency measurements of aquatic carbon fluxes using in-stream sensors will provide information on temporal dynamics at unprecedented resolution. A geostatistical model will be developed to characterize relations between landscape type (e.g., wetlands, forest, tundra) and aquatic C dynamics and fluxes. Variations in fluxes...
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Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.
FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
This project applied sea-level rise (SLR) modeling approaches along the Pacific coast tidal gradient at a parcel scale through improved data collection tools and collaboration relevant to land managers. At selected salt marsh parcels in both the North Pacific and California LCCs, data collection techniques were employed to assess detailed baseline habitat elevations; tidal ranges, microclimate, and extreme weather events; sediment supply sources; vegetation community composition; and vertebrate population indices. The design provides resource managers with information on the value of different datasets and methods including their uncertainty, as well as determines their usefulness in climate change adaptation planning...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Alaska, British Columbia, CA-2, All tags...
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
FY2014Land management agencies seek to understand how organisms use the landscape in order to develop management strategies that maintain healthy, resilient communities that have the ecological and evolutionary potential to respond to climate change. An ideal approach to understanding how organisms move through the landscape is by inferring ongoing and historic movements from patterns of genetic continuity that characterize regional sets of populations. From patterns of genetic connectivity we can infer the habitat and landscape characteristics that facilitate animal movement and species range shifts over both short and long timescales. Knowing the spatial distribution of critical linkages or corridors allows conservation...
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Successful conservation strategies in the face of climate change will require careful consideration of how changing climate will affect wildlife and habitats. Development of innovative, data-driven, accessible tools will assist in understanding and planning for those effects. This project was funded to (1) develop climate envelope models and associated prediction maps for 26 federally threatened and endangered terrestrial (T&E) vertebrate species occurring in peninsular Florida, (2) provide a technical guidebook for use and interpretation of climate envelope models, (3) develop visualization and social networking tools that will allow natural resource managers and the general public to view our models, and (4) create...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Applications and Tools, Climate change, Climate envelope models, Completed, Conservation planning, All tags...
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This research focuses on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. This project supports the development of the Land-use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS tracks changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux by combining: A State-and-Transition Simulation Model (STSM) to simulate changes in land-use across a range of geographic scales. A Stock and Flow Model to track...
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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The disturbance team contributes to the goals of the LandCarbon project and conducts research focusing on 3 main components: (1) monitoring disturbance patterns and their impacts on carbon cycling, (2) understanding drivers creating the patterns and impacts, and (3) using scenarios of change to project future potential disturbance patterns, their interactions with other disturbances, and subsequent impacts on carbon cycling. Key research questions driving our work include: (1) Monitoring: How can remotely sensed, field-based, and other data best be used individually and synergistically to track changes in fire occurrence in ecosystem types with long fire-return intervals and the impacts on carbon? How do disturbances...
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This project modeled the effects of future climate change on bird distributions and their status in the lower 48 states. Its goal was to examine more than 600 species of birds and produce more than 100 predictive scenarios for each species, resulting in more than 600,000 data layers for birds. The purpose of the project was to provide information critical to the design and implementation of management and conservation strategies that could be used by all Landscape Conservation Cooperatives.
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
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Description of Work U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will expand the online availability of geospatial data to monitor the presence and extent of invasive species in wetlands, coastal areas and other sensitive habitats. USGS is working with the Great Lakes Observing System collaboration and other data sharing efforts across the Great Lakes to compile the data into a user friendly format that is accessible on line. Elevation data will be expanded in the Great Lakes Basin using a collaborative to support the GLRI. This information would support invasive species monitoring, wetland inventory, and habitat restoration. USGS will work with the Great Lakes Observing System and other data sharing efforts to make USGS geospatial...


map background search result map search result map Evaluating Climate-Induced Runoff and Temperature Change on Stream Habitat Metrics for Endangered or Threatened Fish - BOR Project FY2011 Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada Geospatial Information for decision support in AOCs and ecosystems Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Ecosystem disturbances monitoring an modeling Headwater C fluxes LUCAS modeling Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit Future of Climate Change on a Species: A Tool for the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Envelope Models in Support of Landscape Conservation Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Headwater C fluxes Evaluating Climate-Induced Runoff and Temperature Change on Stream Habitat Metrics for Endangered or Threatened Fish - BOR Project FY2011 A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Geospatial Information for decision support in AOCs and ecosystems Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Climate Envelope Models in Support of Landscape Conservation Future of Climate Change on a Species: A Tool for the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Ecosystem disturbances monitoring an modeling LUCAS modeling