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Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response...
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While habitat selection and population estimates are well documented for spring migrating birds in the central Platte River system, little information or monitoring efforts on the North Platte River exist, particularly for the multiple priority bird species known to be present. Most conservation partners deliver habitat programs in the region with limited information and a lack of a landscape prioritization tools. In order for conservation delivery to be more effective and efficient in utilizing limited funds, a decision support tool is critical so that priority species habitat needs are being addressed through appropriate restoration/management strategies in the correct geography at multiple scales. We propose...
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...
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The project consists of three distinct conservation projects: 1) the Sommers/Todd Place project, 2) the Scott Place project, and 3) the Duke Place project. All three projects combined encompass approximately 19,000 deeded acres located at two critical locations along the Green River in northern Sublette County and at an important corridor and buffer area between the Bridger-Teton National Forest and the Green River. Sommers/Todd Place: This portion of the porject encompasses over 5,100 deeded acres along the Green River. The ranches are contiguous and are located on both sides of the Green River. It is located along the west flank of the Pinedale Anticline natural gas field. The project includes a conservation...
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This project will develop species distribution models (SDM) to evaluate current and future occurrence and density of wetland-dependent birds relative to several predictors, including land use patterns, wetland condition and connectivity, geomorphic setting and climate. These tools will suggest which wetland-dependent bird species appear most vulnerable to climate and land use change based on the expected extent of range change under various scenarios. Knowledge of natural history and habitat associations of species coupled with coefficients from regression models will provide insight into the potential reasons for species vulnerability. This information will be valuable in the development of management strategies.
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds varies among species and regions, creating a major source of uncertainty for managers. The goal of this project is to develop tools to support migratory bird management decision-making in the face of uncertain future climate and land use conditions. In order to identify and implement the most effective management strategies,...


    map background search result map search result map Sommers/Grindstone Conservation Easement Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Capture of Down-Scale Climate Change Models. Part B: The Application of High Resolution Climate Models for Avian Conservation Capture and interpretation of down-scaled climate change models to benefit avian conservation Predicting Bird and Bat Fatality Risk at Wind Farms and Proposed Wind Farm Sites Using Acoustic Ultrasonic Recorders Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Sandhill Cranes and Waterfowl of the North Platte River Valley: Evaluation of Habitat Selection to Guide Conservation Delivery Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty Sommers/Grindstone Conservation Easement Sandhill Cranes and Waterfowl of the North Platte River Valley: Evaluation of Habitat Selection to Guide Conservation Delivery Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Capture of Down-Scale Climate Change Models. Part B: The Application of High Resolution Climate Models for Avian Conservation Capture and interpretation of down-scaled climate change models to benefit avian conservation Predicting Bird and Bat Fatality Risk at Wind Farms and Proposed Wind Farm Sites Using Acoustic Ultrasonic Recorders On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty