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The atmospheric water balance over the upper Colorado River is evaluated twice daily for the seven winter seasons 1957?1963. The atmospheric water balance yields the exchange of water and water vapor at the earth-atmosphere interface through the observation of the spatial and time distributions and fluxes of water vapor in the atmosphere over the basin. The quantity precipitation minus evaporation is determined as a residual of the computation and is accumulated for daily and seasonal values. In addition, a natural period analysis is performed; the natural periods are delineated by homogeneity in the parameter precipitation minus evaporation. The dry periods are shown to exhibit a seasonal trend in evaporation rate...
ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the effects of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed using monthly stream flows for 1968–1987 and 1988–1997, respectively. The R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency values computed for the monthly comparisons were 0.74 and 0.69 for the calibration period and 0.82 and 0.81 for the validation period. The effects of nine 30-year (1968 to 1997) sensitivity runs and six climate change scenarios were then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. A doubling of atmospheric CO2 to 660 ppmv (while holding other climate variables constant)...