Skip to main content
Advanced Search

Filters: Tags: forecasting (X)

36 results (42ms)   

Filters
Date Range
Extensions
Types
Contacts
Categories
Tag Types
Tag Schemes
View Results as: JSON ATOM CSV
thumbnail
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a systematic, quantitative approach to prioritize candidate basins that can support the assessment and forecasting objectives of the major USGS water science programs. Candidate basins were the level-4 hydrologic units (HUC4) with some of the smaller HUC4s being combined (hereafter referred to as modified HUC4 basins). Candidate basins for the contiguous United States (CONUS) were grouped into 18 hydrologic regions. Thirty-three geospatial variables representing land use, climate change, water use, water-balance components, streamflow alteration, fire risk, and ecosystem sensitivity were initially considered to assist in ranking candidate basins for study. The two highest...
thumbnail
A table is presented listing: (1) USGS Gage Station Numbers, (2) Model Identification Tags, (3) Model Term Estimates, (4) Model Term Fit Statistics, and (5) Model Performance Indices for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) Models estimating hydrological drought probabilities in the United States. Models were developed using streamflow daily values (DV) readily available from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) and mean monthly streamflows readily computed from NWIS streamflow DV. Models were prepared for 9,144 sites throughout the United States as described in: Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities In The United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions...
ARGN14.WDM contains nine data series: air temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (dsn 400), dewpoint temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (dsn 500), wind speed in miles per hour (dsn 300), solar radiation in Langleys (dsn 600), computed potential evapotranspiration in thousandths of an inch (dsn 200), and four flags data series for air temperature (dsn 410), dewpoint temperature (dsn 510), wind speed (dsn 310) and solar radiation (dsn 610) respectively from January 1,1948, to September 30, 2015. The primary source of the data is the Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois. To open this file user needs to install any of the utilities described in the section "The Related External Resources" in this page.
The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
With wind power capacities increasing in many electricity systems across the world, operators are faced with new problems related to the uncertain nature of wind power. Foremost of these is the quantification and provision of system reserve. In this paper a new methodology is presented which quantifies the reserve needed on a system taking into account the uncertain nature of the wind power. Generator outage rates and load and wind power forecasts are taken into consideration when quantifying the amount of reserve needed. The reliability of the system is used as an objective measure to determine the effect of increasing wind power penetration. The methodology is applied to a model of the all Ireland electricity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Wind
The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
thumbnail
This data release is the update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - ScienceBase data release Bera (2021b), with the processed data for the period October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020. This data release describes the watershed data management (WDM) database file WBDR20.WDM. The WDM database file WBDR19.WDM (Bera, 2020b) is updated with the quality-assured and quality-controlled meteorological and hydrologic data for the period October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020, following the guidelines documented in Bera (2017) and is renamed as WBDR20.WDM. Meteorological data other than precipitation (wind speed, solar radiation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) are copied...
Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue. Despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties, this paper shows that, if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty, i.e., in the form of predictive distributions, then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, costs, wind
Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing “single-valued” (spot) predictions are nowadays widely used. However, end-users may require to have additional information on the uncertainty associated to the future wind power production for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves estimation, unit commitment, trading in electricity markets, a.o. Several models for on-line uncertainty estimation have been proposed in the literature and new products from numerical weather prediction systems (ensemble predictions) have recently become available, which has increased the modelling possibilities. In order to provide efficient on-line uncertainty estimation, choices have to be made on which model and modelling...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Modeling, Wind
The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is...
thumbnail
This data release contains the forcings and outputs of 7-day ahead maximum water temperature forecasting models that made real-time predictions in the Delaware River Basin during 2021. The model is driven by weather forecasts and observed reservoir releases and produces maximum water temperature forecasts for the issue day (day 0) and 7 days into the future (days 1-7) at five sites. This data release captures the entire forecasting period that is reported in Zwart et al. 2022, and is an extension of a previous data release that contains all data needed to build these models but only extends to July 16, 2021 (Oliver et al. 2021). Additionally, this release contains a tidy version of the model predictions with paired...
The text file "Wind speed.txt" contains hourly data and associated codes from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2014. The primary source of the data is the Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois. The codes consist of a three-digit sequence in the form "xyz" that describe the origin and transformations of the data values. They indicate if the data are original or missing, the method that was used to fill the missing periods, and any other transformations of the data. The user of the data should consult Over and others (2010) for the detailed documentation of the data codes. Reference Cited: Over, T.M., Price, T.H., and Ishii, A.L., 2010, Development and analysis of a meteorological database, Argonne National...
Changes in the hydrologic equilibrium of a river basin resulting from resource development also produce changes in the quality pattern. since the burden of quality maintenance must be shared by users (just as are quantities) predictions are needed for quality changes which might result from contemplated development at any specified location within the river system. This study reports the development of a computer simulation model of the water and salt flow systems within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Because of the close relationship between the hydrologic and salinity flow systems, an understanding of the hydrologic system is essential to successful management of the salinity system. In this study development...
In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around £5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term...
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power
Present power markets are designed for trading conventional generation. For wind generation to participate in a short-term energy market, lengthy wind power production forecasts are required. Although wind speed forecasting techniques are constantly improving, wind speed forecasts are never perfect, and resulting wind power forecast errors imply imbalance costs for wind farm owners. In this paper, a new method for minimization of imbalance costs is developed. Stochastic programming is used to generate optimal wind power production bids for a short-term power market. A Wind power forecast error is represented as a stochastic process. The imbalance costs resulting from this strategy are then compared to the case when...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Wind, market
The text file "Air Temperature.txt" contains hourly data and associated codes from January 1, 1948, to September 30, 2014. The primary source of the data is the Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois. The codes consist of a three-digit sequence in the form "xyz" that describe the origin and transformations of the data values. They indicate if the data are original or missing, the method that was used to fill the missing periods, and any other transformations of the data. The user of the data should consult Over and others (2010) for the detailed documentation of the data codes. Reference Cited: Over, T.M., Price, T.H., and Ishii, A.L., 2010, Development and analysis of a meteorological database, Argonne National...
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power


map background search result map search result map Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States (2017) Data to support near-term forecasts of stream temperature using process-guided deep learning and data assimilation Watershed Data Management (WDM) Database (WBDR20.WDM) for West Branch DuPage River Streamflow Simulation, DuPage County, Illinois, January 1, 2007, through September 30, 2020 Data used to prioritize the selection of river basins for intensive monitoring and assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey Data to support near-term forecasts of stream temperature using process-guided deep learning and data assimilation Data used to prioritize the selection of river basins for intensive monitoring and assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey Terms, Statistics, and Performance Measures for Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression Models Estimating Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States (2017)