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Societal dependence on oil leads to increasingly negative social consequences throughout the world, including climate change, air pollution, political and economic instability, and habitat degradation. Reliance on the automobile for transportation also contributes to a sedentary lifestyle, an obesity epidemic and poor health. These problems are particularly pronounced in the USA, which currently consumes c. 27% of global oil production and produces c. 25% of global carbon emissions, and where c. 65% of adults are overweight or obese. Other countries throughout the world that replicate or hope to replicate the automobile-based lifestyle of the USA face similar problems now or in the near future. This paper develops...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
Societal dependence on oil leads to increasingly negative social consequences throughout the world, including climate change, air pollution, political and economic instability, and habitat degradation. Reliance on the automobile for transportation also contributes to a sedentary lifestyle, an obesity epidemic and poor health. These problems are particularly pronounced in the USA, which currently consumes c. 27% of global oil production and produces c. 25% of global carbon emissions, and where c. 65% of adults are overweight or obese. Other countries throughout the world that replicate or hope to replicate the automobile-based lifestyle of the USA face similar problems now or in the near future. This paper develops...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
Interests in obtaining carbon offsets in host countries for CDM projects may serve as an obstacle to implementing more stringent general environmental policies in the same countries. A relatively lax environmental policy, whereby carbon emissions remain high, can be advantageous for such countries as it leaves them with a higher than otherwise scope for future emissions reductions through CDM and other offset projects. In this paper, the potential to affect the availability of future CDM projects is shown to distort environmental and energy policies of CDM host countries, in two ways. First, policies to reduce the use of fossil energy are weakened. This in turn weakens private sector incentives to switch to lower-carbon...
ABSTRACT: To help meet national energy demands, interest has been focused on the coal, oil shale, and uranium deposits of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Several energy output projections for the basin have been presented based upon water availability. Inherent in all these analyses are estimates as to the rate of water use in each energy development. New energy technologies are characterized by parameters extrapolated from small scale energy facilities. The data provide projected costs, conversion efficiencies, and material inputs and outputs. Alternative techniques for process cooling and solids handling provide variable rates of water use which affect other conversion parameters. Results from a mathematical model...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
ABSTRACT: To help meet national energy demands, interest has been focused on the coal, oil shale, and uranium deposits of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Several energy output projections for the basin have been presented based upon water availability. Inherent in all these analyses are estimates as to the rate of water use in each energy development. New energy technologies are characterized by parameters extrapolated from small scale energy facilities. The data provide projected costs, conversion efficiencies, and material inputs and outputs. Alternative techniques for process cooling and solids handling provide variable rates of water use which affect other conversion parameters. Results from a mathematical model...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
In order to promote the production and use of electricity generated from renewable energy sources, support schemes such as the Renewables Portfolio Standard and various green power programs have been implemented. When evaluating the costs and benefits associated with those schemes, people need accurate information about the characteristics of renewable generation. The objective of the present paper is to identify the kind of information to be provided to lay people in Japan in order to enhance their understanding of biomass generation. We used the two-stage "mental model" method to conduct open-ended interviews and a questionnaire survey to reveal people's beliefs about biomass generation. From the survey results,...
In this study we analyze and compare the climate impacts from the recovery, transport and combustion of forest residues (harvest slash and stumps), versus the climate impacts that would have occurred if the residues were left in the forest and fossil fuels used instead. We use cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) as an indicator of climate impacts, and we explicitly consider the temporal dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide and biomass decomposition. Over a 240-year period, we find that CRF is significantly reduced when forest residues are used instead of fossil fuels. The type of fossil fuel replaced is important, with coal replacement giving the greatest CRF reduction. Replacing oil and fossil gas also gives long-term...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: case, crude oil, markets, oil, predictability
Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP, that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders.
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
The history of hydrocarbon generation, expulsion and migration from the Upper Devonian Bakken and Mississippian Lodgepole source rocks in the Williston Basin has been successfully replicated by a 330-km long TEMISPACK model, running from the centre of Williston Basin to the Wapella oilfield in Saskatchewan. The model shows that oil generation is the cause of overpressures in the Bakken Fm., where shale vertical permeabilities must be as low as 10-2-10 -3 nD when overpressures are around 15 MPa. Hydraulic fracturing threshold was not commonly reached. Yet, our model suggests that expulsion efficiencies are as high as 0.85. Observed very low Bakken shale porosities (0.03) are entirely consistent with this result....
In order to promote the production and use of electricity generated from renewable energy sources, support schemes such as the Renewables Portfolio Standard and various green power programs have been implemented. When evaluating the costs and benefits associated with those schemes, people need accurate information about the characteristics of renewable generation. The objective of the present paper is to identify the kind of information to be provided to lay people in Japan in order to enhance their understanding of biomass generation. We used the two-stage "mental model" method to conduct open-ended interviews and a questionnaire survey to reveal people's beliefs about biomass generation. From the survey results,...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
By replacing fossil fuels bioenergy has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but indirect effects might partly or even completely eliminate this benefit. Production of bio-energy products, such as biofuels for transport, causes several indirect effects through their interactions with the global economic and physical systems. Indirect land-use change leads to GHG emissions – in some cases in the same order of magnitude as the fossil emissions – and loss of nature, but there are other relevant indirect effects as well. Intensification of agricultural production is another indirect effect and could be stimulated more to minimise the undesirable land conversion. However, intensification through increased...
The history of hydrocarbon generation, expulsion and migration from the Upper Devonian Bakken and Mississippian Lodgepole source rocks in the Williston Basin has been successfully replicated by a 330-km long TEMISPACK model, running from the centre of Williston Basin to the Wapella oilfield in Saskatchewan. The model shows that oil generation is the cause of overpressures in the Bakken Fm., where shale vertical permeabilities must be as low as 10-2-10 -3 nD when overpressures are around 15 MPa. Hydraulic fracturing threshold was not commonly reached. Yet, our model suggests that expulsion efficiencies are as high as 0.85. Observed very low Bakken shale porosities (0.03) are entirely consistent with this result....
Regional economic impact assessment (REIA) and social impact assessment (SIA) are methodologically close, since REIA provides predictions of change in employment both directly and indirectly resulting from a project, thereby giving some indication of future population changes, derived demand for social services and infrastructure, and the likely regional social mix. There are, however, a number of theoretical difficulties with conventional REIAs. As extrapolations they normally avoid discussion of processes of structural change, which could result in substantial changes within the time horizon of a project. Another issue is the justification for including secondary project impacts in assessing a project's worth....