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The central objective of this project was to answer two questions: 1) how downscaled climate datasets, modeled vegetation changes, and information on estimated species sensitivities can be used to develop climate change adaptation strategies, and 2) how model results and datasets can be made more useful for informing the management of species and landscapes. To answer these questions, we identified enthusiastic partners working in two very different complex landscapes within the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC): 1) the British Columbia Park system, specifically the midcoast region, and 2) the National Wildlife Refuge system in the Willamette Valley, OR. The issues and concerns of each group...
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This project developed a soil vulnerability index and map indicating where forest cover will be most affected by climate change. Using this map, researchers developed a greater understanding of potential changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes under future climate conditions. They then evaluated how this information could be used to improve vegetation models across the landscape. They compared the results of different modeling approaches to the soil vulnerability map, synthesized the state of knowledge and uncertainty, and introduced management implications for action.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
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The Wildlife Conservation Society will assess the climate change vulnerability of bird species that regularly breed in substantial populations in Alaska using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Initial work will focus on breeding birds in Arctic Alaska including shorebirds, waterfowl and waterbird species (loons, gulls, terns, jaegers), and land bird species (passerines, raptors, ptarmigan).
This project will conduct a vulnerability assessment, develop climate-smart adaptation strategies and actions, and generate implementation plans for focal habitats of the South and Central Coast regions of the CALCC, with a specific focus on four Southern California National Forests (Angeles, San Bernardino, Cleveland, Los Padres).Specific project goals include:(1) Assess the regional vulnerabilities and resiliencies of focal habitats to climate change and non-climate change stressors.(2) Generate climate-informed maps to identify how vulnerabilities vary spatially to help prioritize conservation areas and activities.(3) Identify implementable climate-smart conservation strategies and actions to conserve priority...
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The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project supports climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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There are many challenges in detecting precipitation trends in Alaska. The most substantial are the small number of observations, inhomogeneities, differences among gridded data sets, and differentiating between long-term trends and decadal variability. Analyzing both station and regional products will increase our understanding of where local trends in precipitation may differ significantly from regional trends, providing key information for developing better downscaled climate projections. These in turn, will provide insight into fine scale heterogeneity in climate change that may be important in determining the stability of key habitat features, such as wetlands and insect avoidance areas. As a by-product of...
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The Beaufort Sea coast in Arctic Alaska and neighboring northern Canada has recently experienced extreme and accelerated climate change, including a dramatic reduction in summer sea ice. Human systems will likely be impacted through changes to oil industry and community infrastructure currently in place along parts of the coast, to habitat availability for harvested species such as caribou, waterbirds, and anadromous fish, to culturally important landscape elements, and to both recreational and subsistence coastal access. We used literature review and structured interviews to 1) identify current, broad interests for ongoing coastal research in the arctic, 2) identify the best mechanisms and format for communicating...
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
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Our proposal addresses Funding Category Ill by evaluating natural resource management practices and adaptation opportunities. More specifically, our project addresses Science Need #6 to improve monitoring and inventory of watersheds and ecosystems (including invasive species). Our proposed study will occur within the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) (upper Virgin River, UT) and the Desert LCC (lower Virgin River, AZ and NVL and therefore will be submitting to both cooperatives. Invasive saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) is the third most abundant tree in Southwestern riparian systems (Friedman et al. 2005). Resource managers must often balance the management goals of protecting wildlife species and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...
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Southern Nevada Water Authority will add new modeling and analytical capabilities to tools developed as part of a previous WaterSMART Climate Analysis Tools Grant that assessed impacts of climate change on water quality and sediment transport in Lake Mead. Project results are intended to increase an understanding of how water quality characteristics and nutrient levels in Lake Mead may be affected by climate change.
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Texas Tech University will conduct quantitative and predictive analysis of the connectivity of isolated desert “wetlands”, that include tinajas, the name for eroded pools in bedrock, for 20 wildlife species over the Sonoran desert ecoregion. Potential loss of wetlands due to climate change will also be studied to identify high value areas that can be prioritized for future restoration efforts and targeted for better management practices.Target species for landscape connectivity analysis include:Colorado River toad ( Incilius alverius )American bullfrog ( Lithobates catesbeianus )Chiricahua leopard frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis )Lowland leopard frog ( Lithobates yavapaiensis )Couch’s spadefoot ( Scaphiopus couchii...
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Montane Conifer Connectivity of areas of high elevation and high human footprint in the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative study area. This application provides Montane Conifer Connectivity for 2000 and 2080 (A1B).The three primary geospatial layers used in this analysis were a digital elevation model (DEM), a vegetation layer, and a human footprint layer. Due to the geographic extent of the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative, digital elevation models from different sources had to be used to create one seamless DEM. The digital elevation models were obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the United States Geologic Survey, and the Government of the Yukon Territory....
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This project will complete a tribally-based climate change vulnerability assessment t and adaptation plan for Eulachon that spawn in the Chilkoot and Chilkat rivers near Haines, Alaska. Local monitoring will collect data on spawning populations in the Chilkoot River, and a tribal stakeholder group will be convened to analyze climate change projections, apply traditional knowledge, rank climate vulnerabilities, and prioritized adaptation strategies.
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Overview Land and resource managers in the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) currently lack conservation planning tools that can directly feed into the planning, design, delivery, and monitoring of ecosystems across all levels of biodiversity from genes to ecosystems. The North Pacific Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity Project utilized a landscape connectivity simulator (UNICOR) and a genetic simulation program (CDPOP) to model the functional (dispersal and genetic) connectivity in the North Pacific Landscape. The outputs from these programs indicated areas with high potential for landscape and genetic isolation and low probability of dispersal and colonization. In addition, this...


map background search result map search result map North Pacific Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity Project: Assessing Landscape and Species Vulnerability - Spatial Data Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Moving from Awareness to Action: Informing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests Effects of Bio-Control and Restoration on Wildlife in Southwestern Riparian Habitats A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada Landscape Connectivity of Isolated Waters for Wildlife in the Sonoran Desert North Pacific Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity Project: Assessing Landscape and Species Vulnerability - Final Report Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation:  Case Studies in the North Pacific LCC - Final Report 2016 population estimate report Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities A Study of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality and Internal Nutrient Recycling in Lake Mead, Arizona-Nevada Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration 2016 population estimate report Effects of Bio-Control and Restoration on Wildlife in Southwestern Riparian Habitats North Pacific Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity Project: Assessing Landscape and Species Vulnerability - Spatial Data North Pacific Forest Landscape Corridor and Connectivity Project: Assessing Landscape and Species Vulnerability - Final Report Moving from Awareness to Action: Informing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests Landscape Connectivity of Isolated Waters for Wildlife in the Sonoran Desert Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation:  Case Studies in the North Pacific LCC - Final Report Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records