Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit...

Categories: Publication; Types: Journal Citation; Tags: Land use and Land cover, Scenarios, Spatially-explicit modeling, State-and-transition simulation model

State-and-Transition Simulation Models, parameters, input data, and simulation results

This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of sagebrush-steppe vegetation dynamics for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) Priority Areas for Conservation (PACs) in the Great Basin. The STSM was built using the ST-Sim platform and uses an integrated stock-flow submodel (STSM-SF) to simulate and track continuous vegetation component cover changes caused by annual growth, natural regeneration, and post-fire sagebrush seeding and planting restoration. Spatially explicit models were built for three sage-grouse PACs (Klamath Oregon/California [KLAM], NW Interior Nevada [NWINV], Strawberry Utah [STRAW]) that differed in historic wildfire patterns and the amounts of various component...

Tags: California, Centrocercus urophasianus, Greater sage-grouse, Klamath OR/CA Priority Area for Conservation, NW Interior NV Priority Area for Conservation, All tags... Nevada, Oregon, Sagebrush biome, Simulation model, Strawberry Priority Area for Conservation, United States, Utah, annual grass cover, biota, environment, perennial grass cover, pinyon-juniper cover, post-fire restoration, sage-grouse habitat, sagebrush cover, sagebrush revegetation, state-and-transition simulation model, vegetation change, Fewer tags

NW-Interior Nevada time series (2018-2068) of potential habitat and 50-year change

Potential future greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat restoration was projected (2018-2068) for three sage-grouse Priority Area for Conservation (PACs) populations located along the northwestern, central, and eastern edge of the Great Basin using outputs from a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) developed for sagebrush ecosystems. These datasets, for the NW-Interior Nevada, USA (NWINV) sage-grouse population, include: 1) a set of 78 categorical raster layers illustrating a time series (decade intervals) of potential future habitat, and 2) a set of 15 uncategorized raster layers illustrating potential change in habitat classification across space, after simulating 50 years...

Tags: Centrocercus urophasianus, Greater sage-grouse, NW-Interior Nevada Priority Area for Conservation, Nevada, Sagebrush biome, All tags... United States, biota, environment, perennial grass cover, post-fire restoration, sage-grouse habitat, sagebrush cover, sagebrush revegetation, state-and-transition simulation model, vegetation change, Fewer tags

State-and-Transition Simulation Model of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044)

This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem including transition pathways related to management activities and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform linked to the FARSITE fire behavior model. The St-SIM file structure includes three components: 1) Buffelgrass.ssim.input folder that houses the input files used by St-SIM, 2) the Buffelgrass.ssim.output folder which houses the scenario outputs used by St-SIM for visualization and export of data, and 3)...

Tags: Arizona, Buffelgrass, Saguaro National Park, State-and-transition simulation model, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), All tags... biota, fire, invasive species, Fewer tags

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Climate-resilient, Conservation, Landscapes, Open-canopy longleaf, Other Landscapes, All tags... South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Southeast CASC, State-and-transition simulation model, Urban growth, Fewer tags

State-and-transition simulation model of rangeland vegetation in southwest South Dakota (1969-2050)

This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of rangeland vegetation dynamics in southwest South Dakota. It was co-designed with resource management partners to support scenario planning for climate change adaptation. The study site encompasses part of multiple jurisdictions, including Badlands National Park, Buffalo Gap National Grasslands, and Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. The model represents key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition (i.e., distribution of ecological community phases). See Miller et al. (2017) for further details. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform (www.apexrms.com/stsm)....

Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Badlands National Park, Bison, Buffalo Gap National Grassland, Cattle, Climate change, All tags... Climatology, Data Visualization & Tools, Fire, Grazing, Invasive species, Land Use Change, Livestock, North Central CASC, Northern Great Plains, Scenario planning, Science Tools for Managers, South Dakota, State-and-transition simulation model, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Fewer tags

State-and-Transition Simulation Models to explore post-fire habitat restoration in three greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) Priority Areas for Conservation, USA (2018-2068)

Wildfires are increasingly modifying wildlife habitat in the western United States and managers need ways to scope the pace and degree to which post-fire restoration actions can re-create habitat in dynamic landscapes. We simulated post-fire revegetation and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat restoration using a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) developed for sagebrush ecosystems. The STSM represented the vegetation dynamics of the sagebrush ecosystem and included annual fires, annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, and sagebrush revegetation restoration. We compared simulated vegetation output with sage-grouse perennial grass and sagebrush cover habitat needs...

Tags: California, Centrocercus urophasianus, Ecology, Greater sage-grouse, Klamath OR/CA Priority Area for Conservation, All tags... NW Interior NV Priority Area for Conservation, Nevada, Oregon, Sagebrush biome, Strawberry Priority Area for Conservation, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, Utah, annual grass cover, biota, environment, perennial grass cover, pinyon-juniper cover, post-fire restoration, sage-grouse habitat, sagebrush cover, sagebrush revegetation, state-and-transition simulation model, vegetation change, Fewer tags

Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Help Inform Management Decisions

Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119011705.ch10/summary): This chapter discusses an approach that uses MC1 results to create climate-informed state-and-transition simulation model (cSTSMs) in two contrasting landscapes: dry forests in central Oregon and wet forests in western Washington. The studies presented here examine trends in different socioecological values under different climate and management assumptions using a dynamic global vegetation model/STSM approach. The authors found that simulated management actions did not prevent climate-induced vegetation change. Simulated management did in some cases promote desired forest structures and increase resilience to climate change....

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Birds, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Landscapes, Northwest CASC, Wildlife and Plants, landscapes, state-and-transition simulation model, Fewer tags

Strawberry Utah time series (2018-2068) of potential habitat and 50-year change

Potential future greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat restoration was projected (2018-2068) for three sage-grouse Priority Area for Conservation (PACs) populations located along the northwestern, central, and eastern edge of the Great Basin using outputs from a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) developed for sagebrush ecosystems. These datasets, for the Strawberry Utah, USA (STRAW) sage-grouse population, include: 1) a set of 78 categorical raster layers illustrating a time series (decade intervals) of potential future habitat, and 2) a set of 15 uncategorized raster layers illustrating potential change in habitat classification across space, after simulating 50 years...

Tags: Centrocercus urophasianus, Greater sage-grouse, Sagebrush biome, Strawberry Priority Area for Conservation, United States, All tags... Utah, biota, environment, perennial grass cover, post-fire restoration, sage-grouse habitat, sagebrush cover, sagebrush revegetation, state-and-transition simulation model, vegetation change, Fewer tags

State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Buffelgrass in Saguaro National Park (2014-2044) to explore ecological uncertainties

This is a spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation model of buffelgrass dynamics in Saguaro National Park, AZ. Buffelgrass is an invasive grass spreading in the park. The model represents uninvaded and invaded parts of the desert ecosystem and includes a connection to a fire behavior model. The model was built using the ST-Sim software platform linked to the FARSITE fire behavior model. The St-SIM file structure includes three components: 1) Buffelgrass.ssim.input folder that houses the input files used by St-SIM, 2) the Buffelgrass.ssim.output folder which houses the scenario outputs used by St-SIM for visualization and export of data, and 3) Buffelgrass.ssim file which is opened by St-SIM to provide...

Tags: Arizona, Fire, Invasive species, Saguaro National Park, Simulation model, All tags... State-and-transition simulation model, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Fewer tags

Klamath Oregon/California time series (2018-2068) of potential habitat and 50-year change

Potential future greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat restoration was projected (2018-2068) for three sage-grouse Priority Area for Conservation (PACs) populations located along the northwestern, central, and eastern edge of the Great Basin using outputs from a spatially explicit state-transition simulation model (STSM) developed for sagebrush ecosystems. These datasets, for the Klamath Oregon/California, USA (KLAM) sage-grouse population, include: 1) a set of 78 categorical raster layers illustrating a time series (decade intervals) of potential future habitat, and 2) a set of 15 uncategorized raster layers illustrating potential change in habitat classification across space, after simulating...

Tags: California, Centrocercus urophasianus, Greater sage-grouse, Klamath OR/CA Priority Area for Conservation, Oregon, All tags... Sagebrush biome, United States, biota, environment, perennial grass cover, post-fire restoration, sage-grouse habitat, sagebrush cover, sagebrush revegetation, state-and-transition simulation model, vegetation change, Fewer tags