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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
Larval and juvenile Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) use shallow, low-velocity, channel-margin areas (backwaters) as nursery habitats. It is hypothesized that within-day flow fluctuations caused by hydropower operations can directly affect the suitability of such habitats by altering water temperature and habitat geometry. Despite the importance of backwaters to juvenile fishes, there is a lack of established approaches for modelling how river management affects these habitats. Here, we describe a physical habitat model that predicts the effects of mainstem flow variation on backwater temperature, geometry and invertebrate availability. We specifically modelled these effects on habitat in a portion of...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning. In this approach, a subset of global climate model projections are selected that represent a range of plausible future climate scenarios for a particular area. Through a series of facilitated workshops, managers can then explore different management...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
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Synopsis: A simulation model, modified from percolation theory, was empirically tested to determine if population distribution patterns correlated with different landscape patterns, for different species across a landscape. Using two grasshopper species in a short-grass prairie of north-central Colorado, the experiment found that the threshold for population aggregation (random to clumped distribution) was differentially affected by dispersal ranges and habitat specialization for habitat generalists and habitat specialists, respectively. Habitat generalists aggregated differentially depending on dispersal abilities. Generalist species with good dispersal abilities aggregated when <35% of the landscape consisted...
Question: Predicting the future abundance and distribution of invasive plants requires knowing how they respond to environmental conditions. In arid and semi-arid ecosystems where water is a limiting resource, environmental conditions and disturbance patterns influence invasions by altering acquisition and utilization of water over space and time. We ask: 1. How do variations in climatic and soil properties influence temporal soil water dynamics? 2. How does this variation affect the establishment of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), a cool-season annual grass that has successfully colonized much of the U.S. Great Basin? Location: Short-grass Steppe in northeastern Colorado, USA; Arid Lands Ecology reserve in southeastern...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
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Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging because it creates a sudden, significant, and concentrated demand on road-network systems. Transportation planners and emergency managers need methods to help them determine if a road network can handle an evacuation surge and if not, where interventions can best reduce overall clearance times. We use the coastal community of Bay...
We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter...
    map background search result map search result map Critical thresholds in species responses to landscape structure. Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations Evacuation clearance time estimations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations for demand mitigation scenarios. Evacuation clearance time estimations of short-notice, daytime distant-tsunami evacuations with capacity improvement scenarios. Bay Farm Island tsunami evacuation MATSIM network Vehicular Demand estimation for short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation of Bay Farm Island, CA Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations Evacuation clearance time estimations of short-notice, daytime distant-tsunami evacuations with capacity improvement scenarios. Vehicular Demand estimation for short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation of Bay Farm Island, CA Bay Farm Island tsunami evacuation MATSIM network Evacuation clearance time estimations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations for demand mitigation scenarios. Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Critical thresholds in species responses to landscape structure.