Filters: Tags: Seismological Research Letters (X)
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The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully...
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Midplate seismicity associated with some former rift-zones is distributed diffusely near, but exterior to, the rift basins. This "basin-exterior' seismicity cannot be attributed to reactivation of major basin-border faults on which uppercrustal extension was concentrated at the time of rifting, because the border faults dip beneath the basins. The seismicity may nonetheless represent reactivation of minor faults that were active at the time of rifting but that were located outside of the principal zones of upper-crustal extension; the occurrence of basin-exterior seismicity in some present-day rift-zones supports the existence of such minor basin-exterior faults. Other hypotheses for seismicity exterior to former...
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In this paper we summarize our recently-published work on estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration for shallow earthquakes in western North America. Although none of the sets of coefficients given here for the equations are new, for the convenience of the reader and in keeping with the style of this special issue, we provide tables for estimating random horizontal-component peak acceleration and 5 percent damped pseudo-acceleration response spectra in terms of the natural, rather than common, logarithm of the ground-motion parameter. The equations give ground motion in terms of moment magnitude, distance, and site conditions for strike-slip, reverse-slip, or unspecified faulting mechanisms. Site...
We surveyed the area north of New Madris, Missouri, for prehistoric liquefaction deposits and uncovered two new sites with evidence of pre-1811 earthquakes. At one site, located about 20 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, radiocarbon dating indicates that an upper sand blow was probably deposited after A.D. 1510 and a lower sand blow was deposited prior to A.D. 1040. A sand blow at another site about 45 km northeast of New Madrid, Missouri, is dated as likely being deposited between A.D.55 and A.D. 1620 and represents the northernmost recognized expression of prehistoric liquefaction likely related to the New Madrid seismic zone. This study, taken together with other data, supports the occurrence of at least...
Two events dominated the January 1994, Wyomissing, PA earthquake sequence, an Mw 4.0 foreshock, followed by an Mw 4.6 mainshock. We modeled regional waveforms to estimate the event depth and the moment tensors for the two largest events in the sequence, and examine teleseismic wave-forms recorded on the ARCESS short-period seismic array to estimate the depth and source time function of the mainshock. Our data constrain the depth of the events to be shallower than 5 km, and prefer a depth of 3-5 km. For an assumed depth of 3 km, the mainshock moment tensor is 75% double couple, with (the major double couple) planes striking at 135??N, 347??N, dips of 49??, 46??, and rakes of 68??, 114??. The estimated moment is 8.9...
Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase...
Interpretation of existing regional magnetic and gravity data and new local high-resolution aeromagnetic data provides new insights on the tectonic history and structural development of the Wabash Valley Fault System in Illinois and Indiana. Enhancement of short-wavelength magnetic anomalies reveal numerous NW- to NNE-trending ultramafic dikes and six intrusive complexes (including those at Hicks Dome and Omaha Dome). Inversion models indicate that the interpreted dikes are narrow (???3 m), lie at shallow depths (<200 m) and are steeply dipping. Some of the interpreted dikes closely follow mapped faults; their abundance suggests that the Wabash Valley Fault System contains many more faults than those mapped. Both...
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This article reports on a workshop held to explore the potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). We discuss the current status of OEF in the United States and elsewhere, the types of products that could be generated, the various potential users and uses of OEF, and the need for carefully crafted communication protocols. Although operationalization challenges remain, there was clear consensus among the stakeholders at the workshop that OEF could be useful.
Two reflection seismic profiles at English Hill, across the southern edge of the Benton Hills escarpment, southeast Missouri, establish that geologic structures at English Hill are of tectonic origin. The lowland area to the south of the escarpment is relatively undisturbed. The geology at English Hill is structurally complex, and reflection seismic and geologic data indicate extensive and episodic faulting of Paleozoic, Cretaceous, Tertiary, and Quaternary strata. The individual faults have near-vertical fault surfaces with maximum vertical separations on the order of 15 m. They appear to be clustered in north-northeast trending zones that essentially parallel one of the dominant Benton Hills structural trends....
The relationship between seismicity and faults observed on seismic reflection profiles from the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the central Mississippi Valley has been intensively studied for the past 15 years. However, comparable studies relating reflector sequences and earthquakes in the southern Illinois Basin, located northeast of the NMSZ, have not been undertaken. This study investigates the possible relationship between the source parameters of the November 9, 1968, magnitude (mbLg) 5.5 earthquake (a NNE-trending, previously interpreted west-dipping reverse fault at 21.2 ?? 5.4 km depth) in southern Illinois, and a zone of moderately dipping reflectors in crystalline (?) basement observed on a nearby high-quality...
The Hayward Fault produced its last major (M7) earthquake in 1868 (Figure 1). It is widely considered to be the most hazardous fault in the San Francisco Bay region. In large part, this is because it lies so close to a densely populated urban corridor that has an abundance of old structures highly vulnerable to seismic hazard. The probability of a major earthquake on this fault was estimated to be 45% in thirty years (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1990). In 1991, Lienkaemper et al. (hereinafter referred to as L91) estimated the potential for seismic slip along the entire length and depth of the fault zone. Recent studies have provided new information relevant to the seismic potential of the...
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