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This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park".
These data are netcdf files of the projected timing of the onset of thermal stress severe enough (>8 Degree Heating Weeks) to cause coral bleaching 2x per decade and 10x per decade (annual) under emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The projected timing (a year between 2006 and 2100) is the data value. Values are only shown for the ~60,000 four-km pixels where coral reefs are known to occur.
The Hawaiian Islands are home to a variety of native species that have been subject to numerous threats including development of habitat for human use, predation by introduced herbivores, and competition with invasive plant species. In addition to these threats global climate change is expected to increase temperature and alter patterns of precipitation in Hawaii. This project models the relative vulnerability of native plant species to the effects of climate change, in order to assist resource managers in effectively allocating limited resources to efficiently preserve and protect current and future habitat for native plants. We modeled vulnerability by creating an expert system – a network model linking biological...
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-13-00202.1): Traditional long-term (decadal) and large-scale (hundreds of kilometers) shoreline change modeling techniques, known as single transect, or ST, often overfit the data because they calculate shoreline statistics at closely spaced intervals along the shore. To reduce overfitting, recent work has used spatial basis functions such as polynomials, B splines, and principal components. Here, we explore an alternative to such basis functions by using regularization to reduce the dimension of the ST model space. In our regularized-ST method, traditional ST is an end member of a continuous spectrum of models. We use an evidence information criterion...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
This report identifies needs and opportunities in the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region relative to climate change science, management, and adaptation strategies. The region includes the territories of Guam and American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI), and the independent states of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This inventory is responsive to the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) Strategic Science Agenda and its articulation with the region.
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
A beautiful plant found only on Haleakala may become rarer. A recent study coauthored by UH researcher Paul Krushelnycky shows changing climate patterns allowing fog and rain to reach higher elevations are threatening the plant but he cautions all is not lost. He joined us in our studio to tell us more. Paul is currently Assistant Researcher, at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at the University of Hawaii in Manoa.
This Project Snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Development of Statistical Methods to Estimate Baseline and Future Low Flow Characteristics of Ungaged Streams in Hawai`i".
This Project Snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Coral reef resilience to climate change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands".
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Dominant Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands".
This final report is for the Pacific Islands CSC funded project "Very Fine Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Past and Future Climates for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Islands of O`ahu and Kaua`i".
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
Reducing coral reef vulnerability to climate change requires that managers understand and support the natural resilience of coral reefs. We define coral reef resilience as: the capacity of a reef to resist and/or recover from disturbance given its probable exposure regime, and maintain provision of ecosystem goods and services. Spatial variation in exposure to disturbance and the resilience of reefs in the face of those disturbances will determine the fate of coral reefs within management jurisdictions. This project sought to: (1) undertake ecological resilience assessments in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is in the west Pacific near Guam, and (2) collaboratively develop a decision-support...
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This data set describes the predicted daily climate (temperature and rainfall) for low, mid, and high-elevations on Mona Loa, Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100. Climate predictions are based on 3 alternative climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, A1B, and RCP 8.5) - see Liao et al. 2015 for more details and climate references. The predicted daily risk of susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers are based on the daily climate data, mosquito abundance and other factors. Also see Samuel et al. 2011 The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native Hawaiian birds: a modeling approach. Ecological Applications 21:2960-2973 for description of the epidemiological model used for avian malaria risk predictions.
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As a low-lying coastal nation, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is at the forefront of exposure to climate change impacts. The Republic of the Marshall Islands has a strong dependence on natural resources and biodiversity not only for food and income but also for culture and livelihood. However, these resources are threatened by rising sea levels and associated coastal hazards (storm surges, saltwater intrusion, erosion, etc.). High-quality data for atoll ‘ridge to reef’ (land and ocean) areas are needed to provide remote communities with the tools and strategies to make adaptation efforts before disasters occur. Although the Republic of the Marshall Islands’ National Strategic Plans recognize the need to...
Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Hawaiian Seascapes and Their Management Implications".
A cocktail of land-based sources of pollution threatens coral reef ecosystems, and addressing these has become a key management and policy challenge in the State of Hawaii, other US territories, and globally. In West Maui, Hawai'i, nearly one quarter of all living corals were lost between 1995 and 2008. Onsite disposal systems (OSDS) for sewage leak contaminants into drinking water sources and nearshore waters. In recognition of this risk, the Hawaii State Department of Health (DOH) is prioritizing areas for cesspool upgrades. Independently, we applied a decision analysis process to identify priority areas to address sewage pollution from OSDS in West Maui, with the objective of reducing nearshore coral reef exposure...
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This folder contains 7 excel files with data from a household questionnaire survey (N=199) conducted for the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration project. The fieldwork took place in March and April 2017. Besides the excel file, the folder also contains the original questionnaire in PDF format. The questionniare looked at livelihood, perceptions of climate change and ecosystem services and migration behaviour. The excel files are 1 file for the main questionnaire data and 6 additional files with data from tables in the questionnaire. Each variable in the questionnaire starts with a Leter (A-K) and a number. This refers to the question number in the questionnaire. The databases uses 3 codes for missing values:...
(1) This written report summarizes and synthesizes results of literature review, interviews, and workshops, providing the scientific basis for and extension strategies for the management recommendations provided in the "green website" [Data Input New Collection]. The report includes an addendum regarding reference bibliographies and a references list with citations. (2) Selected, unusual references that are not readily available online or through standard academic sources were collected by the project. (3) Selected photographs are retained by the project in electronic form.
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Landscape-scale conservation of threatened and endangered species is often challenged by multiple, sometimes conflicting, land uses. In Hawaiʻi, efforts to conserve native forests have come into conflict with objectives to sustain non-native game mammals, such as feral pigs, goats, and deer, for subsistence and sport hunting. Maintaining stable or increasing game populations represents one of the greatest obstacles to the recovery of Hawaii’s 425 threatened and endangered plant species. Many endemic Hawaiian species have declined and become endangered as a result of herbivorous non-native game mammals. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, including the spread of invasive grasses and changing precipitation patterns...


map background search result map search result map Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100 Managing Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i RMI Questionnaire data of the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project Enhancing Stakeholder Capacity for Coastal Inundation Assessments in the Marshall Islands Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100 RMI Questionnaire data of the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project Enhancing Stakeholder Capacity for Coastal Inundation Assessments in the Marshall Islands