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This publication is a product from the project, "Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest".
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
Summary of drought monitoring and limitations in the US Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).
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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...
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Snowshoe hares are the primary food source of the federally threatened Canada lynx. In western Montana for example, snowshoe hare make up 96% of lynx diet. In fact, hares are critical players in forest ecosystems because most carnivores prey on them. The main way that snowshoe hares escape predation is through camouflage. In response to changes in day length, snowshoe hares molt seasonally, changing color from brown to white in the winter to blend in with the snowfall and hide from predators. However, due to shorter snow seasons caused by recent changes in climate, snowshoe hares are turning white before it snows, making them more visible to predators. Because 21 other species around the world also undergo these...
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Climate change has emerged as a key environmental concern of the 21st century and a major challenge for land and wildlife managers. Although scientists have made tremendous progress in predicting the impact of climate change on a regional and global scale, drilling down such projections to a locally applicable form has been difficult. A major project of the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC), funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), drew on the work of an interdisciplinary team of scientists to help close the gap between theory and practical application in the arid southwestern U.S. Climate change in this region is predicted to be extreme,...
The production of dairy and beef is important for food security and the economies of the U.S. Caribbean. The dairy industry is the leading agricultural sector in Puerto Rico, contributing about 22% of the total agricultural income. Region-wide, beef and dairy production generate over 25,000 jobs and occupy more than 50,000 acres. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, cattle production has been declining in recent years due to higher insurance costs and natural disasters, while sheep and goat production has increased. Caribbean countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their geography and economic capacity. Climate change is driving temperatures higher and the region is experiencing more frequent and intense...
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The scaled quail is an important species that indicates the overall health of the habitats they occupy in the arid Southwest. Some populations are declining, which may be linked to the long-term trend in warmer, drier conditions and reduced monsoonal rainfall across their range. It’s believed that temperature and humidity levels have been too high, reducing the survival of eggs and chicks. Climate models project decreasing rainfall and warming temperatures to continue for the region, so understanding this linkage is becoming increasingly critical. To address this need, researchers sought to measure the success of scaled quail nests at locations across their range, to determine if nest success is related to temperature,...
With our colleagues at the USGS, we are creating a new paradigm for drought planning that gives ecological impacts a seat at the table. Our approach recognizes the importance of considering human water use as a driver of ecological responses, and provides mechanisms for identifying feedback loops and situations where the ecological water availability thresholds for nature and people (via key ecosystem services) may differ within a given geography. Teasing apart these and other components of addressing drought risks is helping update natural resource planning and conservation strategy development as the frequency and intensity of droughts continue to increase in the US.
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The purpose of this project was to estimate and map the probability that grassland converts to cropland in the northern plains and prairie region given potential climate change. This region provides critical breeding and migratory habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species, and is also a highly productive agricultural region. Generally, the regional effects projected by climate models are increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation, which could provide incentives for private landowners to convert native and managed grassland to intensive cropland. Conversion of grassland to cropland can result in habitat loss for dependent species and the degradation of a range of ecosystem services. If...
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Extreme events not only affect people but can have detrimental impacts on natural resources, such as fish and freshwater habitats. Impacts of extreme events, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme flooding, have immediate consequences, but also have the ability to alter habitats and animals far in the future by providing opportunities for exotic species to colonize new areas. Some fish communities in streams, rivers, and lakes may have the natural ability to resist the long-term impacts of extreme weather events. In this project, researchers will investigate the ability of Caribbean fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, which have both economic and cultural importance, to resist the impacts of extreme weather events....


map background search result map search result map Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat