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Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jawr.12179/abstract): Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures ( T ). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic...
This article is a product from the project "Can Mammals Mediate Climatically-Induced Vegetation Transitions in Alpine Ecosystems of the Western United States?". Abstract: In ecological studies, it is useful to estimate the probability that a species occurs at given locations. The probability of presence can be modeled by traditional statistical methods, if both presence and absence data are available. However, the challenge is that most species records contain only presence data, without reliable absence data. Previous presence-only methods can estimate a relative index of habitat suitability, but cannot estimate the actual probability of presence. In this study, we develop a presence and background learning...
Our knowledge of avian behaviors during the non-breeding period still lags behind that of the breeding season, but the last decade has witnessed a proliferation in research that has yielded significant progress in understanding migration patterns of North American birds. And, although the great majority of migration research has historically been conducted in the eastern half of the continent, there has been much recent progress on aspects of avian migration in the West. In particular, expanded use of techniques such as radar, plasma metabolites, mist-netting, count surveys, stable isotopes, genetic data, and animal tracking, coupled with an increase in multi-investigator collaborations, have all contributed to...
Board Game, Species Information Cards, and Spinner Template for "Migration Mismatch" board game.
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The Sqigwts 3-D Landscape is an interactive three-dimensional experience developed to provide an opportunity to effectively learn about the important cultural significance of sqigwts, the water potato (Sagittaria latifolia), to the Schitsu’umsh or Coeur d’Alene Indian Tribe (of the Pacific Northwest USA). The goal is to provide information on the potential vulnerability of this species to climate change and of the Schitsu’umsh living relationship with it. Schitsu’umsh knowledge and practice is called hnkhwelkhwlnet, meaning “our ways of life in the world,” and is conveyed through acts of re-telling oral traditions and stories. For the Schitsu’umsh, storytelling is a living act and can only truly occur in-person...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10236-013-0684-3): A three-level nested Regional Ocean Modeling System was used to examine the seasonal evolution of the Copper River (CR) plume and how it influences the along- and across-shore transport in the northern Gulf of Alaska (NGoA). A passive tracer was introduced in the model to delineate the growth and decay of the plume and to diagnose the spread of the CR discharge in the shelf, into Prince William Sound (PWS) and offshore. Furthermore, a model experiment with doubled discharge was conducted to investigate potential impacts of accelerated glacier melt in future climate scenarios. The 2010 and 2011 simulation revealed that the upstream (eastward)...
Changes in the Earth’s climate are expected to impact freshwater habitats around the world by altering water temperatures, water levels, and streamflow. These changes will have consequences for inland fish – those found within lakes, rivers, streams, canals, reservoirs, and other landlocked waters – which are important for food, commerce, and recreation around the world. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in 2011, 33.1 million people fished and spent $41.8 billion in the United States alone. Yet to date, little comprehensive research has been conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on inland fisheries at a large scale. The aim of this project was to summarize the current state of knowledge,...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0138759): Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0380133014002597): Fish stock-recruitment dynamics may be difficult to elucidate because of nonstationary relationships resulting from shifting environmental conditions and fluctuations in important vital rates such as individual growth or maturation. The Great Lakes have experienced environmental stressors that may have changed population demographics and stock-recruitment relationships while causing the declines of several prey fish species, including rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We investigated changes in the size and maturation of rainbow smelt in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron and recruitment dynamics of the Lake Michigan stock over the past...
Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management of recreationally and commercially important fisheries, which have been valued at more than $7 billion USD annually. Our research focused on how climate change could influence fish habitat (including water temperature, ice cover, and water levels), phytoplankton production that supports fish biomass, and ultimately the growth and consumption of many important recreational and commercial fish species. This final report was produced for the NCCWSC-funded project Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes.
Habitat loss and alteration from land use change, species invasion, and more recently, climate change have reduced biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide. Habitat decisions have important implications to individual fitness as well as population dynamics and community structure. Resource limitation, predation, competition, and unfavorable abiotic conditions all have the potential to influence survival and future reproductive potential. Understanding how changes to ecosystem structure and function impact species and populations of conservation concern is essential for conservation delivery to be effective. Similar to many migratory species, shorebird populations are declining worldwide and declines may be related...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecy.1853/full): Predicting species responses to perturbations is a fundamental challenge in ecology. Decision makers must often identify management perturbations that are the most likely to deliver a desirable management outcome despite incomplete information on the pattern and strength of food web links. Motivated by a current fishery decline in inland lakes of the Midwestern United States, we evaluate consistency of the responses of a target species (walleye (Sander vitreus)) to press perturbations. We represented food web uncertainty with 196 plausible topological models and applied four perturbations to each one. Frequently the direction of the focal...
We classified walleye ( Sander vitreus) recruitment with 81% accuracy (recruitment success and failure predicted correctly in 84% and 78% of lake-years, respectively) using a random forest model. Models were constructed using 2779 surveys collected from 541 Wisconsin lakes between 1989 and 2013 and predictor variables related to lake morphometry, thermal habitat, land use, and fishing pressure. We selected predictors to minimize collinearity while maximizing classification accuracy and data availability. The final model classified recruitment success based on lake surface area, water temperature degree-days, shoreline development factor, and conductivity. On average, recruitment was most likely in lakes larger than...
[Excerpt from Introduction] "The San Francisco Bay Estuary supports a large and diverse bird community. More than 50% of most Pacific flyway diving duck populations are found in the Estuary during the winter months (Trost 2002; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2002). San Francisco Bay has been designated as a site of international importance for shorebirds (Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network), supporting millions of individuals (Morrison et al. 2001; Takekawa et al. 2001; Warnock et al. 2002), including species that use tidal marsh habitats. In total, the Bay’s tidal marshes support at least 113 bird species that represent 31 families (Takekawa et al., in press)..."


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