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Ecosystem services – the benefits that nature provides to people – are a natural link between ecosystem functions and economic and social impacts. However, climate change is already impacting and altering ecosystem services. Research focused on all aspects of ecosystem services falls within the mission of the Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). While knowledge of ecosystem services supply is strong, analyses of service delivery and value currently fall outside the research agenda and capacity of the CASCs This project will draw on existing literature and expertise and experiences of CASC leadership and staff to identify the types of ecosystem services and the value of information of CASC research that are...
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Negative human-bear interactions are a common problem and management priority for many wildlife agencies in North America. Bears are adaptable to anthropogenic activity and food sources which creates opportunities for conflict with humans, including property damage, livestock depredation, and in severe cases, human injury. Acute climate events and long-term directional climate change can exacerbate the frequency and severity of human-bear interactions by changing resource availability, increasing overlap between humans and wildlife, and driving competition. Despite the pervasive threat that climate change poses, studies evaluating climate, human-wildlife interactions, and adaptive management strategies are limited....
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The smallmouth bass (SMB) is a widespread species with a distribution that extends throughout the eastern and central U.S., in addition to introduced populations in other regions. From a management perspective, the SMB is important both as a popular sport fish and as a threat to native species where it is present outside of its natural range. Understanding the population-level responses of this species to environmental change is thus a priority for fisheries resource managers. This project aimed to explicitly model the impacts of projected climate and land use change on the growth, population dynamics, and distribution of stream-dwelling SMB in the U.S. Impacts on growth and demographic variables were modeled using...
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This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled climate projections because of the multiple methodologies used to produce them and the time-consuming process required to obtain model output. In response, the research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date...
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We are seeking to better understand networks among resource managers with respect to developing plans for climate change adaptation. We are pursuing this through a network analysis based on a survey of federal resource management staff and scientists in the southwestern and Midwestern U.S. Originally planned, this study was conceived to cover the Southwest and North Central Climate Science Centers, as defined by the USGS. In practice, surveys are most easily distributed within regions as defined by the federal resource agencies. Unfortunately, there is no uniform set of regions. We have tried to be comprehensive in our survey and cover at least the North Central and Southwestern Region.
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As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer models to simulate complex elements of our climate and their interactions with ecosystems, wildlife, and biodiversity. While an extensive array of general circulation models (GCMs, climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean) exist, there is currently a lack of global biodiversity models. This project...
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This project produced land use change change forecasts for the United States at the national scale, based on the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2001. Both urban and agricultural expansion were modeled at 300-meter resolution at ten-year intervals from 2010 to 2050.
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The goal of the glacial lakes regional study was to predict the impacts of climate and land use change on coldwater fish habitat in the glacial lakes region, which covers most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The study includes both top-level, regional analyses and more detailed case studies of individual lakes. The goal of this project was to provide (1) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the trophic status of Midwestern coldwater glacial lakes, (2) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the regional distribution of coldwater lake oxythermal habitat, and (3) guidance on the types of coldwater lakes in which locations will be the most or least vulnerable to land use and climate...
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Moose are an economically and culturally important species in Minnesota. Like many species, however, moose are experiencing reductions in distribution and abundance across the Midwest as a result of climate change and habitat loss. Moose populations have declined by 60% since 2006, in part because of thermal heat stress in warming summers and increased frequency of contact with white-tailed deer that transmit fatal parasites. Forest managers are looking for actionable strategies to improve moose habitat in the near-term while also planning for future forest conditions in a warming climate. To address this need, this project brings together researchers and managers to examine how climate adaptive forest management...
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Many animal species have unique characteristics that allow them to survive during winter. For example, the snowshoe hare changes its fur color from brown to white to camouflage better in winter months, and the ruffed grouse roosts under the snow to stay warm and hidden in winter. These winter-adapted species, however, are facing new challenges as climate change is resulting in shorter winters and rapid declines in snowpack. Shorter winters pose a significant threat to winter-adapted species that are used to living in, under, or on top of a protective blanket of snow. Wildlife managers are tasked with conserving these species, yet studies understanding how specific management actions can enhance species' ability...
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The San Francisco Bay estuary contains the largest remaining expanse of tidal salt marshes in the western U.S. These marshes are home to a variety of federal and state protected species, such as the California clapper rail, California black rail, and the salt marsh harvest mouse. The estuary is also located on the Pacific Flyway, and is an important site for migrating and wintering birds. As climate conditions change, these salt marshes face a number of threats, including accelerated rates of sea-level rise, shifting precipitation, erosion, and more frequent and intense storms. Seas in the San Francisco Bay estuary have been rising 2.2 centimeters per decade, and could rise by as much as 1.24 meters by 2100, according...
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Quaking aspen populations are declining in much of the West due to altered fire regimes, competition with conifers, herbivory, drought, disease, and insect outbreaks. Aspen stands typically support higher bird biodiversity and abundance than surrounding habitat types, and maintaining current distribution and abundance of several bird species in the northern Great Basin is likely tied to the persistence of aspen in the landscape. This project examined the effects of climate change on aspen and associated bird communities by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with landscape simulations of vegetation community and disturbance dynamics under various climate change scenarios. Field data on avian...
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Marine and inland fisheries provide substantial economic, nutritional, recreational, and cultural benefits to human populations globally. Though extensive research and management efforts exist to ensure the sustainability of these important resources, many fisheries still face threats including climate change, habitat degradation, and overfishing. The inland fisheries community often cites that less attention is given to inland fisheries compared to marine but, to date, no quantitative analysis has examined these differences. Our goal is to compare investment and resources allocated to the research and management of marine and inland fisheries relative to their value at a global scale. Through the development of...
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This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change...
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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems and essential part of the water cycle in tropical islands, which is threaten by climate change. Changes in streamflow patterns may impact streams, estuarine, and coastal habitats. In Hawai‘i, these habitats support five native stream fish species. To examine how changes in streamflow have impacted habitat quality for these native aquatic species, an ongoing project has been examining statewide long-term stream records. This study will examine historical extreme weather patterns, including flood and drought, to describe the characteristics and flow patterns of stream habitats in HawaiÊ»i. This information will then be associated with observed fish populations...
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As resource managers, policy makers, and citizens grapple with the effects of climate change, the demand for more usable or “actionable” science has increased. One promising approach to developing scientific information that can be easily and readily applied to management and policy decisions is to have scientists and decision makers work together to produce information. This approach, often referred to as the “co-production of knowledge”, integrates the background, experience, and know-how of each group to develop the scientific information that will be most useful to society. This project will test an approach to knowledge co-production by introducing a trained social scientist to a co-produced drought-related...
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Many ungulate populations in the Rocky Mountains are predicted to respond to declining snow levels and increased drought, though in ways that remain uncertain. This project investigated how climate change may affect the abundance of Rocky Mountain ungulates, their migration patterns, the degree to which they transmit diseases to livestock, and their herbivory impact on aspen. To complete this work we brought together a team of USGS and University scientists with experience, data, and strong agency collaboration that enabled us to quantify climate impacts and deliver products useful for wildlife managers.
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As temperature and precipitation patterns change, different species in different areas will be affected in different ways. Some places may serve as refuges for wildlife—places where animals can remain or to which they can easily move to escape the worst impacts of climate change. This project will establish a Refugia Research Coalition to leverage recently funded Northwest CASC research projects on the topic of ecological refugia. The goal of this collaborative effort will be to synthesize our understanding of ecological refugia in the Pacific Northwest and how best to use refugia-related research products as tools for adaptive management planning in the region. Ecological refugia will be an important means of protecting...
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Stream flow is directly tied to climate, and numerous studies provide substantial evidence that climate change is a threat to future aquatic water flow processes. In the southwestern United States, mountain snow is a primary water source for streams and rivers. However, climate change is threatening the region's mountain snow, leading to reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. These effects can change the timing, quality, and amount of water flowing in aquatic systems, creating challenges for natural resource managers. The goal of the proposed project is to synthesize existing research and management plans to identify misalignments between aquatic flows and the...
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The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is currently engaged in an Ecological Drought initiative, focused on understanding the impacts of drought on natural ecosystems across the country. This project was designed to support the Ecological Drought initiative by creating a USGS EcoDrought Actionable Science Working Group. The goal of this working group was to identify science needs for drought-related decisions and to provide natural resource managers with practical strategies for adapting to and planning for drought. The working group engaged social scientists to garner advice on relevant social science research questions and data needs, as well as to identify any regulatory, institutional,...


map background search result map search result map Fate of Endangered Species in San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes with Sea-Level Rise Quantifying the Influence of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain Ungulates Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users Projected Land Use Change for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley A Value and Investment Assessment of Marine and Inland Fisheries Globally to Inform Future Resource Management Strategies Producing Usable Science: Testing the Effectiveness of Stakeholder Engagement in Climate Research Eco-drought Actionable Science Working Group Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? An Ecosystem Services Approach to Climate Adaptation Research The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America Filling the Knowledge Gaps: Extreme Weather Driven Changes in Streamflow Patterns and their Impacts on Fish in Hawaiian Streams Future of Aquatic Flows: Endangered streams: Understanding misalignments between aquatic flows and management strategies to inform adaptation efforts Fate of Endangered Species in San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes with Sea-Level Rise Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Establishing a Refugia Research Coalition (RRC) for Collaborative Refugia-Related Research and Management in the Pacific Northwest Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Future of Aquatic Flows: Endangered streams: Understanding misalignments between aquatic flows and management strategies to inform adaptation efforts Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Producing Usable Science: Testing the Effectiveness of Stakeholder Engagement in Climate Research Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users Projected Land Use Change for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America Filling the Knowledge Gaps: Extreme Weather Driven Changes in Streamflow Patterns and their Impacts on Fish in Hawaiian Streams Eco-drought Actionable Science Working Group An Ecosystem Services Approach to Climate Adaptation Research A Value and Investment Assessment of Marine and Inland Fisheries Globally to Inform Future Resource Management Strategies Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling