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These publications exemplify the use of the data from this project, " A Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation and Management of Florida’s Biodiversity", by the broader scientific community.
Abstract: Understanding the consequences of anthropogenic change for migratory species is challenging because although they have evolved to cope with environmental uncertainty, migrants still rely on predictable relationships within and among habitats to make informed decisions. Calidris shorebirds rely on ephemeral wetlands during northward migration through mid-continental North America, where favorable habitat conditions are annually and regionally unpredictable and increasingly altered by land-use change. During spring 2013 and 2014, we assessed Calidris habitat use in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) and the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) at both local and landscape scales. Although anthropogenic change has altered...
Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured...
This article is a product from the project "Can Mammals Mediate Climatically-Induced Vegetation Transitions in Alpine Ecosystems of the Western United States?". Abstract: It is very common that only presence data are available in ecological niche modeling. However, most existing methods for evaluating the accuracy of presence–absence (binary) predictions of species require presence–absence data. The aim of this study is to present a new method for accuracy assessment that does not rely on absence data. Two new statistics Fpb and Fcpb were derived based on presence–background data. With generated six virtual species, we used DOMAIN, generalized linear modeling (GLM), and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to produce different...
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This dataset includes the cover of creosote bush (Larrea tridentata)in 1989, 1995, 1999, 2005, and 2009 across southern Arizona. Cover was determined using sub-pixel classifications of two Landsat scenes from path 36, row 38 (centered on latitude: 31.7470, longitude: -111.3981) and path 37, row 38 (31.7470, -112.9431) that encompass Tucson, AZ.
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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Different species have different ways of coping with changing climate conditions. Some species may move to more-favorable habitats, others may change their behavior (such as by shifting their diets), and still others may change the timing of life-cycle events (such as migration). The ability of a species to accommodate changing conditions is known as its “adaptive capacity”. Understanding the adaptive capacity of different species is a critical component of identifying which species are most vulnerable to climate change, and can ultimately inform the prioritization of conservation efforts. The goal of this project is to create a framework providing natural resource managers with a means of assessing the ability...
This publication is a product from the project, "Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest".
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
Summary of drought monitoring and limitations in the US Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).
The production of dairy and beef is important for food security and the economies of the U.S. Caribbean. The dairy industry is the leading agricultural sector in Puerto Rico, contributing about 22% of the total agricultural income. Region-wide, beef and dairy production generate over 25,000 jobs and occupy more than 50,000 acres. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, cattle production has been declining in recent years due to higher insurance costs and natural disasters, while sheep and goat production has increased. Caribbean countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their geography and economic capacity. Climate change is driving temperatures higher and the region is experiencing more frequent and intense...
With our colleagues at the USGS, we are creating a new paradigm for drought planning that gives ecological impacts a seat at the table. Our approach recognizes the importance of considering human water use as a driver of ecological responses, and provides mechanisms for identifying feedback loops and situations where the ecological water availability thresholds for nature and people (via key ecosystem services) may differ within a given geography. Teasing apart these and other components of addressing drought risks is helping update natural resource planning and conservation strategy development as the frequency and intensity of droughts continue to increase in the US.
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The purpose of this project was to estimate and map the probability that grassland converts to cropland in the northern plains and prairie region given potential climate change. This region provides critical breeding and migratory habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species, and is also a highly productive agricultural region. Generally, the regional effects projected by climate models are increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation, which could provide incentives for private landowners to convert native and managed grassland to intensive cropland. Conversion of grassland to cropland can result in habitat loss for dependent species and the degradation of a range of ecosystem services. If...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...
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Snowshoe hares are the primary food source of the federally threatened Canada lynx. In western Montana for example, snowshoe hare make up 96% of lynx diet. In fact, hares are critical players in forest ecosystems because most carnivores prey on them. The main way that snowshoe hares escape predation is through camouflage. In response to changes in day length, snowshoe hares molt seasonally, changing color from brown to white in the winter to blend in with the snowfall and hide from predators. However, due to shorter snow seasons caused by recent changes in climate, snowshoe hares are turning white before it snows, making them more visible to predators. Because 21 other species around the world also undergo these...
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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...
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Many Midwestern lakes are experiencing warming water temperatures as a result of climate change. In general, this change is causing coldwater fish species such as cisco and coolwater species such as walleye to decline. Meanwhile, warmer water species such as largemouth and smallmouth bass are increasing as temperatures warm. However, some fish populations are more vulnerable to these changes than others. This divergence could be the result of interactions between climate and habitat conditions, or as a result of interactions among fish species. For example, walleye responses to warming temperatures could vary depending on the abundance of largemouth bass. The goal of this project is to quantify the responses of...


map background search result map search result map Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Shifts in Creosote bush in southern Arizona, 1989 - 2009 Adaptive Capacity: The Linchpin for Understanding and Addressing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest Shifts in Creosote bush in southern Arizona, 1989 - 2009 Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest Predicted Likelihood of Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the U.S. Northern Plains and Prairies Given Climate Change Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Adaptive Capacity: The Linchpin for Understanding and Addressing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts