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Abstract (from Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of...
The restoration of historical fire regimes is often a primary objective in the conservation of fire-adapted forests. However, individual species’ responses to future climate change may uncouple historical vegetation–disturbance relationships, producing potentially negative ecological consequences to fire restoration. We used a landscape simulation model to assess how forest pattern will respond to future climate regimes and whether the restoration of historical fire regimes will benefit forest conservation under future climate regimes. Our study landscape was the 335,000-ha Kaibab Plateau at the North Rim of the Grand Canyon spanning a broad elevation-vegetation gradient of pinyon-juniper, ponderosa pine, mixed...