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Fire risk in deserts is increased by high production of annual forbs and invasive grasses that create a continuous fine fuel bed in the interspaces between shrubs. Interspace production is influenced by water, nitrogen (N) availability, and soil texture, and in some areas N availability is increasing due to anthropogenic N deposition. The DayCent model was used to investigate how production of herbaceous annuals changes along gradients of precipitation, N availability, and soil texture, and to develop risk-based critical N loads. DayCent was parameterized for two vegetation types within Joshua Tree National Park, California, USA: creosote bush (CB) and pi�on?juniper (PJ). The model was successfully calibrated in...