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This study is part of an assessment of potential effects of climate change on the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Its purpose is to investigate potential future lake mixing patterns and primary production. Nested physical and biological models were applied to seasonal mixed layer depth, heat content, primary productivity, and to algal biomass measured as particulate chlorophyll. Two independent second generation General Circulation Models provided scenarios for future conditions of cloud cover, air temperature, humidity, and winds. The climate variables were used to force heat balance and surface mixed layer models for Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Physical models of heat balance and mixed layer...