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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
The files contained on this site are for use with the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) for the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), developed by the Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group of the U.S. Geological Survey. PRMS is a daily deterministic watershed-scale model (Markstrom and others, 2015), and can be used at a conterminous United States (CONUS) extent with on the Geospatial Fabric (Viger and Bock, 2014) in the NHM infrastructure (Regan and others, 2018). The NHM-PRMS is the sum of three parts: the source code, parameter values, geospatial fabric (Regan and others, in press). These components are used to generate the simlation output files. Child items of this page include all or parts of these...
Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts on Pacific Northwest water resources and ecosystems. Recognizing this, resource managers have expressed growing interest in incorporating climate change information into long-range planning. The availability of hydrologic scenarios to support climate change adaptation and long-range planning, however, has been limited until very recently to a relatively small number of selected case studies. More comprehensive resources needed to support regional planning have been lacking. Furthermore, ecosystem studies at the landscape scale need consistent climate change information and databases over large geographic areas. Products using a common set of methods that would...
Summary The Hydrologic Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF) was applied to the Illinois River Basin using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) system. Values of the HSPF model parameters were based on the calibrations of three representative watersheds within the basin. Over the 1985–1995 simulation period, monthly and annual mass balances correlated well with observed discharges at three gaging stations along the Illinois River. However, poor correlation of daily flows was due largely to the weakness of the HSPF model in routing dynamic flows through the complicated Illinois River system. To address this problem, a one-dimensional...
Wetlands provide critical services to natural and human communities alike, forming important wildlife habitat, storing and filtering water, sequestering carbon, and offering opportunities for recreation. Unfortunately, not only are these valuable ecosystems understudied compared to others, but they are also among the most sensitive to climate change. Climate change threatens wetlands by altering temperature and precipitation, which cause changes in water level and water temperature. Due to this threat, the international community and domestic agencies alike have highlighted the need to better understand wetlands in the face of climate change, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the Ramsar Convention,...
Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement (“downscaling”), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less...

    map background search result map search result map Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Climate Change Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin and Coastal Drainages USGS NHM-PRMS Releases Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska USGS NHM-PRMS Releases Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Climate Change Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin and Coastal Drainages Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska