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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
America’s remaining grassland in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is at risk of being lost to crop production. When crop prices are high, like the historically high corn prices that the U.S. experienced between 2008 and 2014, the risk of grassland conversion is even higher. Changing climate will add uncertainties to any efforts toward conservation of grassland in the PPR. Grassland conversion to cropland in the region would imperil nesting waterfowl among other species and further impair water quality in the Mississippi watershed. In this project, we sought to contribute to the understanding of land conversion in the PPR with the aim to better target the use of public and private funds allocated toward incentivizing...
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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
This webinar was recorded on May 7, 2015. Sustainable management of natural resources under competing demands is challenging, particularly when faced with novel and uncertain future climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge requires the consideration of information about the effects of management, disturbance, land use, and climate change on ecosystems. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a flexible framework for integrating landscape processes and comparing alternative management scenarios, but incorporating climate change is an active area of research. In this presentation, three researchers present work funded by Climate Science Centers across the country to incorporate climate projections...
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act because of population and habitat fragmentation coupled with inadequate regulatory mechanisms to control development in critical areas. In addition to the current threats to habitat, each 1 degree celsius increase due to climate change is expected to result in an additional 87,000 km2 of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) that will be converted to unsuitable habitat for sage-grouse. Thus, the future distribution and composition of sagebrush landscapes is likely to differ greatly from today’s configuration. We conducted a large, multi-objective project to identify: (1) characteristics of habitats required by sage-grouse,...
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The INL Ecohydrology Experiment uses irrigation to simulate increased winter or summer precipitation. Treatments include a doubling of annual precipitation added in summer (four 50-mm events) or in winter (two 100-mm events added), and non-irrigated control plots. Standard USDA species abbreviations are used.
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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
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This data set includes a dropped-edge analysis of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on land cover data from 2006 and graph theory to evaluate Landscape Resistance to Dispersal (LRD). LRD represents the degree to which habitat availability limits species movement. LRD decreases as habitat availability increases and increases as habitat availability decreases. This data set includes a range of LRD thresholds to represent species with different dispersal abilities and responses to landscape structure. A threshold indicates the highest LRD that still allows dispersal by a particular group of species. LRD thresholds are included in the data set, with low values representing connectivity...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological impacts of mangrove migration are diverse, ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial-nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea-level rise and drought;...
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Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala...


map background search result map search result map Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Laboratory Notes - Scanned Laboratory Notebook Pages for the following project - Ecological implications of mangrove forest migration in the southeastern US (2012-2-13) New soil data collection: subplot-level shear strength New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Ecohydrology Experiment Data Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Ecohydrology Experiment Data Laboratory Notes - Scanned Laboratory Notebook Pages for the following project - Ecological implications of mangrove forest migration in the southeastern US (2012-2-13) New soil data collection: subplot-level shear strength New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains