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Abstract Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing...
The central hypothesis of a nonlinear geophysical flood theory postulates that, given space-time rainfall intensity for a rainfall-runoff event, solutions of coupled mass and momentum conservation differential equations governing runoff generation and transport in a self-similar river network produce spatial scaling, or a power law, relation between peak discharge and drainage area in the limit of large area. The excellent fit of a power law for the destructive flood event of June 2008 in the 32,400-km2 Iowa River basin over four orders of magnitude variation in drainage areas supports the central hypothesis. The challenge of predicting observed scaling exponent and intercept from physical processes is explained....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Climate, floods, scaling theory
By using the established hydraulic relationships among flood frequency, flood magnitude, and river-channel capacity, we develop a scale-independent assessment of the hydrogeomorphic impacts of 21 dams across the United States that have broad ranges in function and contributing drainage area. On the basis of generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis of pre- and post-dam hydrologic records, our analysis indicates that the 2 yr discharge has decreased ~60% following impoundment, exceeding the magnitude of climatically triggered discharge reductions occurring during the Holocene. Reductions in the frequency of the pre-dam 2 yr discharge have been equally profound. The pre-dam 2 yr flood has occurred on average twice...
Riverine riparian vegetation has changed throughout the southwestern United States, prompting concern about losses of habitat and biodiversity. Woody riparian vegetation grows in a variety of geomorphic settings ranging from bedrock-lined channels to perennial streams crossing deep alluvium and is dependent on interaction between ground-water and surface-water resources. Historically, few reaches in Arizona, southern Utah, or eastern California below 1530 m elevation had closed gallery forests of cottonwood and willow; instead, many alluvial reaches that now support riparian gallery forests once had marshy grasslands and most bedrock canyons were essentially barren. Repeat photography using more than 3000 historical...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-2003-4): In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management...
* We review the predicted changes in extreme events following climate change in flowing waters in arctic and subarctic regions. These regions are characterised by tundra or taiga ecosystems in either erosional or depositional glacial landforms or presently glacierised areas of the Northern Hemisphere. * The ecological and geomorphic effects of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, such as episodes of strongly increased precipitation, temperatures and flows, can be exacerbated by altered base conditions. For example, winter temperature variations between frost and thaw will become more frequent at many places because mean temperature during the winter is closer to 0 °C, potentially leading to changes in...
A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven...
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The Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska,USAis a globally important region for numerous avianspecies including millions of migrating and nesting waterbirds.However, data on the current spatial distributionof critical nesting areas and the importance of environmental variables in the selection of nest locations aregenerally lacking for waterbirds in this region.We modeled nest densities for 6 species of geese and eiders thatcommonly breed on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, including cackling goose (Branta hutchinsii minima),emperor goose (Chen canagica), black brant (B. bernicla nigricans), greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifronsfrontalis), spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri), and common eider (S. mollissima).Thedata...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: BIRDS, BIRDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DELTAS, All tags...
California’s highly variable climate and growing water demands combine to pose both water-supply and flood-hazard challenges to resource managers. Recently important efforts to more fully integrate the management of floods and water resources have begun, with the aim of benefitting both sectors. California is shown here to experience unusually large variations in annual precipitation and streamflow totals relative to the rest of the US, variations which mostly reflect the unusually small average number of wet days per year needed to accumulate most of its annual precipitation totals (ranging from 5 to 15 days in California). Thus whether just a few large storms arrive or fail to arrive in California can be the difference...
During the AD 1990s the Waubay Lakes complex in eastern South Dakota experienced historically unprecedented high water levels. Property damage from this flooding led to an examination of the occurrence of past pluvial episodes and their relation to climate. A 1000-year hydroclimate reconstruction was developed from local bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) tree-ring records and lake-sediment cores. Analysis of lake shoreline and drainage features provides late-Quaternary geomorphic context for this high-resolution record. Tree-ring width and shell geochemistry of the ostracode Candona rawsoni show marked coherence, indicating synchronous responses to moisture balance in vegetation and lake salinity; geomorphic evidence...
* We review the predicted changes in extreme events following climate change in flowing waters in arctic and subarctic regions. These regions are characterised by tundra or taiga ecosystems in either erosional or depositional glacial landforms or presently glacierised areas of the Northern Hemisphere. * The ecological and geomorphic effects of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, such as episodes of strongly increased precipitation, temperatures and flows, can be exacerbated by altered base conditions. For example, winter temperature variations between frost and thaw will become more frequent at many places because mean temperature during the winter is closer to 0 °C, potentially leading to changes in...
ABSTRACT: Data from long-term ecosystem monitoring and research stations in North America and results of simulations made with interpretive models indicate that changes in climate (precipitation and temperature) can have a significant effect on the quality of surface waters. Changes in water quality during storms, snowmelt, and periods of elevated air temperature or drought can cause conditions that exceed thresholds of ecosystem tolerance and, thus, lead to water-quality degradation. If warming and changes in available moisture occur, water-quality changes will likely first occur during episodes of climate-induced stress, and in ecosystems where the factors controlling water quality are sensitive to climate variability....
Long-term variations in Holocene flood magnitude were quantified from the bankfull dimensions of abandoned channels preserved on floodplain surfaces in the northern Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah. Cross-sectional areas of abandoned channels were reconstructed, and relationships derived from the modern gage records were used to estimate bankfull discharges from bankfull cross-section areas. The results indicate systematic (nonrandom) variations of bankfull floods in the northern Uinta Mountains. Large floods, as much as 10%?15% greater than modern, dominated from 8500 to 5000 calendar yr B.P., and again from 2800 to 1000 cal yr B.P. Small floods, as much as 15%?20% less than modern, characterize the periods...
To facilitate estimation of streamflow characteristics at an ungauged site, hydrologists often define a region of influence containing gauged sites hydrologically similar to the estimation site. This region can be defined either in geographic space or in the space of the variables that are used to predict streamflow (predictor variables). These approaches are complementary, and a combination of the two may be superior to either. Here we propose a hybrid region-of-influence (HRoI) regression method that combines the two approaches. The new method was applied with streamflow records from 1,091 gauges in the southeastern United States to estimate the 50-year peak flow (Q50) . The HRoI approach yielded lower root-mean-square...
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Populus?Salix forests are a valued riparian vegetation type in western North America. These pioneer, obligate phreatophytes have declined on some rivers, raising conservation concerns and stimulating restoration plantings, but have increased on others. Understanding patterns and causes of forest change is essential for formulating conservation, restoration and management plans. Our goal was to assess spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation change on the Upper San Pedro River in semiarid Arizona, USA, one of the few undammed rivers in the region. Over 100 years ago, intense floods initiated channel incision and substantially altered hydrogeomorphology. Pioneer trees began to establish in the widening post-entrenchment...
Spatial and temporal variation of fish communities in four secondary channels of the San Juan River between Shiprock, NM and Bluff, UT were investigated from July 1993 through November 1994. Fish abundance and habitat availability data were collected to determine if physical attributes of sites influenced spatial and temporal variation in their fish communities. Stability of habitat was shown to positively influence the stability of the fish community. Analysis of variance revealed greater spatial than temporal variation in the abundance of red shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis, fathead minnow, Pimephales promelas, and flannelmouth sucker Catostomus latipinnis, while speckled dace, Rhinichthys osculus showed greater...
Although our current (1990) knowledge of hydrologic and hydraulic processes is based on many years of study, there are river environments where these processes are complex and poorly understood. One of these environments is in mountainous areas, which cover about 25 percent of the United States. Use of conventional hydrologic and hydraulic techniques in mountain-river environments may produce erroneous results and interpretations in a wide spectrum of water-resources investigations. An ongoing U.S. Geological Survey research project is being conducted to improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes of mountainous areas and to improve the results of subsequent hydrologic investigations. Future...
The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on...
The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [Interagency Committee on Water Data, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed-threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed...
Preservation of biodiversity depends on restoring the full range of historic environmental variation to which organisms have evolved, including natural disturbances. Lotic ecosystems have been fragmented by dams causing a reduction in natural levels of environmental variation (flow and temperature) and consequently a reduction of biodiversity in downstream communities. We conducted a long-term study of the macroinvertebrate communities before and after natural flood disturbances in an unregulated reference site (natural flows and temperatures), a regulated site (regulated flows and temperatures), and a partially regulated reference site (regulated flows and natural temperatures) on the upper Colorado River downstream...
map background search result map search result map A century of riparian forest expansion following extreme disturbance: Spatio-temporal change in Populus/Salix/Tamarix forests along the Upper San Pedro River, Arizona, USA Predicting Waterbird Nest Distributions on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska A century of riparian forest expansion following extreme disturbance: Spatio-temporal change in Populus/Salix/Tamarix forests along the Upper San Pedro River, Arizona, USA Predicting Waterbird Nest Distributions on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska