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Fossil records are replete with examples of long-term biotic responses to past climate change. One particularly useful set of records are those preserved in lake and marine sediments, recording both climate changes and corresponding biotic responses. Recently there has been increasing focus on the need for conservation of ecological and evolutionary processes in the face of climate change. We review key areas where palaeoecological archives contribute to this conservation goal, namely: (i) determination of rates and nature of biodiversity response to climate change; (ii) climate processes responsible for ecological thresholds; (iii) identification of ecological resilience to climate change; and (iv) management of...
Two major approaches address the need to predict species distributions in response to environmental changes. Correlative models estimate parameters phenomenologically by relating current distributions to environmental conditions. By contrast, mechanistic models incorporate explicit relationships between environmental conditions and organismal performance, estimated independently of current distributions. Mechanistic approaches include models that translate environmental conditions into biologically relevant metrics (e.g. potential duration of activity), models that capture environmental sensitivities of survivorship and fecundity, and models that use energetics to link environmental conditions and demography. We...