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This two and a half day workshop offered five sessions organized around a change adaptation framework. Each session was designed to be a shared learning process that would both test the framework as a tool and help the participants learn how they might use it in their workplaces. Sessions had a combination of speakers and group exercises. The workshop brought together nearly 170 individuals from more than 60 organizations to identify shared conservation goals and to explore regional scale strategies to conserve Southern Sierra Nevada natural resources in the face of rapid change and an uncertain future.Public land managers and partners in the Southern Sierra Nevada Region are keenly aware that valued resources are...
Most species and ecosystems face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions for population persistence in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies; a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of the Mediterranean-type ecosystems....
Conservation managers and policy makers require models that can rank the impacts of multiple, interacting threats on biodiversity so that actions can be prioritized. An integrated modelling framework was used to predict the viability of plant populations for five species in southern California’s Mediterranean-type ecosystem. The framework integrates forecasts of land-use change from an urban growth model with projections of future climatically-suitable habitat from climate and species distribution models, which are linked to a stochastic population model. The population model incorporates the effects of disturbance regimes and management actions on population viability. This framework: (1) ranks threats by their...
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrology data at a 270 meter resolution, which is relevant for watershed-scale evaluation and planning. These data have formed the basis for multiple research projects and vulnerability assessments applying climate change projections to conservation decision-making, providing a common base-layer and set of assumptions across these projects.This article on the Climate Commons provides documentation, examples, and links intended to assist resource managers and researchers in accessing and using this data. Please see also the Webinar hosted by the CA LCC on September 17, 2014, “Webinar: The 2014 Basin Characterization Model...
We propose a statistically robust, logistically feasible, long-term monitoring program for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley of California to track spatial and temporal population trends resulting from changing climate and habitat conditions. Specifically, we recommend a sampling design and survey protocol. We provide the data storage and analytical framework for population and trend estimates to be made annually as new data come in through the online data portal in the California Avian Data Center (CADC). We also recommend a series of needed pilot studies including evaluating methods for estimating error rates in shorebird counts, determining the appropriate scale for measuring habitat, and tracking habitat...
Are there places that buffer species from climate change? If so, where are they, and can species get there? California natural resource managers need to develop climate change adaptation strategies to address the responses of species to warming trends, shifting precipitation regimes, and changes in vegetation communities. Climate change refugia – areas that remain relatively stable as the climate changes – are important to consider in adaptation planning, but little was known about the nature and distribution of these places.In the CA LCC-funded project “Determining Landscape Connectivity and Climate Change Refugia Across the Sierra Nevada”, researchers mapped the meadows of the Sierra Nevada and used data on the...
This dataset includes Climatic Water Deficit (CWD) change, average winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) and average spring (Mar, Apr, May) snowpack change, recharge change, and runoff change from Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the GFDL and PCM A2 Scenarios in Sierra Nevada California, for 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The data was processed using historic (1979-2000) and future (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099) values to calculate change. CWD: The term climatic water deficit defined by Stephenson (1998) is quantified as the amount of water by which potential evapotranspiration (PET) exceeds actual evapotranspiration (AET). This term effectively integrates the combined effects of solar radiation, evapotranspiration,...
CVJV Implementation Plan chapter and/or chapter sections incorporating results of scenario modeling and description of method to follow to evaluate potential impacts to water supplies and habitats of future proposed changes to water supply management.
This update describes the project’s background and summarizes progress and data produced.Most waterfowl habitats in the Central Valley of California rely on managed surface water supplies stored in reservoirs and delivered via a complex system to a wide array of competing water users. Water supplies vary with snow pack, temperature, and precipitation, all of which are projected to change substantially under some global climate models; land use and water management decisions also greatly impact water supplies. Led by USGS - Western Ecological Research Center , this multi - partner project ( California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, USFWS, CVJV, California Dept. of Fish and Game, Ducks Unlimited, Delta Waterfowl,...
Based on simulation studies using historic monitoring data from SF Bay, we propose a monitoring plan with a standardized survey protocol that will provide robust estimates of spatial and temporal changes in shorebird populations in SF Bay. We also present an online data entry portal developed for the California Avian Data Center (CADC) to capture data and provide general summaries from annual monitoring data. We recommend an annual survey of a stratified random sample of locations to be conducted during high tide on a single day. We provide the analytical framework for population and trend estimates to be made annually as new data come in through the online data portal in CADC. Overall, the new survey design is...
The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area...
This section of the Climate Commons is dedicated to web pages and data management plans for the CA LCC-funded projects. The purpose is to deliver the scientific products resulting from the CA LCC-funded applied research projects for use by the intended audience, California’s natural resource managers. The project pages provide access to the many types of products, including online tools, publications, and datasetsData management plans are required of every project at the begininng of the project, and CA LCC’s Data Managers work with the Principle Investigators to fill out the data management plans and eventually catalog and present their results in the Climate Commons through these web pages. Often the PI works...
EcoAdapt, in collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service and California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (CA LCC) hosted the Adaptation Planning Workshop for the Sierra Nevada in June 2013 in Sacramento, California. The goal of the workshop was to identify management strategies that will help regionally important ecosystems and species adapt to changing climate conditions and to lay the groundwork for adaptation action. Thirty-two attendees representing 21 public agencies (including national forests), non-governmental organizations, and others participated in the workshop. Managers, scientists, and conservation practitioners identified adaptation strategies for six focal resources: alpine/subalpine systems, Sierra...
This technical report presents PRBO Conservation Science’s (now called Point Blue Conservation Science) development of scenarios of climate change impacts on tidal marsh vegetation and bird species from 2010-2110 based on low or high rates of sea level rise (0.52 or 1.65 m in 100 yr) and low or high suspended sediment availability.
Guidance for incorporating climate change into conservation and restoration strategies was provided in two Climate-Smart Actions for Natural Resource Managers workshops hosted by the Bay Area Ecosystem Climate Change Consortium (BAECCC, baeccc.org) and sponsored by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, California Coastal Conservancy, and The Nature Conservancy on November 29, 2012 and September 24, 2013. Materials from both of these workshops are presented in this webpage, presented on the CA LCC’s Climate Commons.
Project GoalThe Goal of the Central Valley Landscape Conservation Project is to identify climate-smart conservation actions in partnership with scientists and natural resource managers that will maximize the adaptive capacity of priority species, habitats, and ecosystems to support an ecologically connected Central Valley landscape.Project ObjectivesConserve resilient and adaptable ecosystems that sustain future Central Valley biodiversity.Promote landscape-scale connectivity and ecological and physical processes that function within current and future ranges of variability to support a diverse and thriving Central Valley.Reduce the impacts of climate change and other co-occurring stressors to Central Valley ecosystems....
A collection of information resources assembled to support the CVLCP partnership efforts, including scenario planning, assessing vulnerabilities, and developing adaptation strategies.
As a clear consensus is emerging that suitable habitat for many species will dramatically reduce and/or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population-level factors on which the climate change literature has been relatively silent—the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals...
The Greater Farallones NMS Climate Adaptation Plan is the result of a 2-year process to characterize climate impacts and vulnerabilities to Sanctuary resources along the North-central California coast and ocean, and to develop management strategies to respond to and decrease those vulnerabilities, ultimately enhancing resource resilience to climate impacts. The Plan represents the culmination of a Sanctuary Advisory Council planning process that resulted in the development of 78 adaptation strategy recommendations for the region’s management agencies to take to enhance coastal habitat resilience. The Plan presents the final adaptation strategies from these recommendations that Greater Farallones National Marine...