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Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
Policymakers and managers in the U.S. energy sector will face complex multidimensional challenges as they confront potential supply shortfalls, infrastructure constraints, and environmental limitations in the years ahead. Using a technique known as scenario analysis, this paper investigates key energy issues and decisions that could improve or reduce the ability of the United States to deal with the uncertainties that may challenge the U.S. economy during the next fifty years. Four scenarios have been developed representing a diverse range of future worlds to explore the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape U.S. energy markets and the economy for the next fifty years. Each scenario has been quantified...
The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs, Models dis cussed relate to vegetation (e.g, crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO2, other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further,...
Federally owned and managed public lands occupy approximately 30 percent of the land area of the United States, and anywhere from 50 percent to more than 80 percent of the land area of many of the western states. Determining the appropriate use of these lands involves balancing objectives related to economic, recreational, and conservation interests. This paper examines established and emerging conflicts within and across these objectives through both a narrative discussion of specific topics and a series of case studies. The authors find that new challenges, including pressures to devote portions of public lands to renewable energy project development and the multifaceted threats presented by climate change, will...
Bedded trona (Na2CO=-NaHCO=.214,0) in the lacustrine Green River Formation of Eocene age in the Green River Basin, southwest Wyomin~ constitutes the largest known resource of natural sodium carbonate in the world, in this study, 116 gigatons (Gt) of trona ore are estimated to be present in 22 beds, ranging from 1.2 to 11 meters (m) in thickness. Of this total, 69 Gt of trona ore are estimated to be in beds containing less than 2 percent halite and 47 Gt in beds containing 2 or more percent halite. These 22 beds underlie areas of about 130 to more than 2,000 km: at depths ranging from about 200 m to more than 900 m below the surface. The total resource of trona ore in the basin for which drilling Information is available...