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Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965215000110): The goal of this study was to assess the importance of the 2007 sea ice retreat for hydrologic conditions on the Alaskan North Slope, and how this may have influenced the outbreak of tundra fires in this region. This study concentrates on two years, 2007 and 1996, with different arctic sea ice conditions and tundra fire activity. The year of 2007 is characterized by a low summer sea ice extent (second lowest) and high tundra fire activity, while 1996 had high sea ice extent, and few tundra fires. Atmospheric lateral boundary forcing from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis drove the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, along with varying...
Parcel cost benefit and portfolio selection data for reserve design optimization using modern portfolio analysis
1) Raw parcel-level habitat data for the South Carolina Lowcountry surrounding Cape Romain NWR and Francis Marion NF, from current current conditions and for three projected sea-level rise futures based on SLAMM model outputs, NLCD land cover and the projected distribution of sea levels for 2050. 2) a table of parcel identification numbers (without georeference) with parcel size (Ha) and sub-group identity. 3) Optimization-model derived reserve design portfolios that define the Pareto-optimal frontier for each sub-group and for four budget scenarios along axes of reserve design benefits and risk.
This capacity-building activity supported three tribal college and university (TCU) mini-grants to initiate student phenological and meteorological observation projects in support of climate change research, to document impacts of climate change and development of indigenous geography curriculum. Students made observations of culturally and/or traditionally significant plants to generate data sets for use in climate change impact assessment of these plants and plant communities. The activity contributed to the larger national efforts of the Smithsonian National Museum of the American Indian’s “Indigenous Geography” curricula, by engaging with students at tribal colleges to explore the linkage between the “seasonality”...
USGS researchers from the North Central CASC and the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center recently collaborated with the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program to develop a new product that communicates the results from a collaborative effort—involving resource managers, subject-matter experts, and a larger climate change adaptation team—to identify potential climate impacts and management responses in Badlands National Park. The researchers used scenario planning and ecological simulation modeling to anticipate management challenges and identify options for Badlands National Park and adjacent federal and tribal lands in the coming decades (through 2050). The ecological simulation models help...
Which tree species and biome types are most vulnerable to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains?
March 2017 Project Update: Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern Colorado
The project team, funded by the NC CSC, worked in two river basins in southwestern Colorado (San Juan and Gunnison) to focus on five objectives: 1) understand social-ecological vulnerabilities, 2) create scenarios and models to facilitate decision making, 3) develop actionable adaptation strategies, 4) identify institutional arrangements needed for adaptation, and 5) document and transfer best practices. The team was interested in the intersection of the climate system, the ecological system, and the social system. Social and natural scientists worked together and with many stakeholders to achieve these objectives.
This data set provides the abiotic water balance variables used for species distribution modelings for Pinus albicaulis within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge Spot Landcover Classification in Relation to Greater Sage Grouse
This landcover raster was generated through a Random Forest predictive model developed in R using a combination of image-derived and ancillary variables, and field-derived training points grouped into 18 classes. Overall accuracy, generated internally through bootstrapping, was 75.5%. A series of post-modeling steps brought the final number of land cover classes to 28.
Training points collected in the field between 2012 and 2013 were grouped into 18 classes: Forested Burn (66), Foothill Woodland Steppe Transition (73), Greasewood Flat (73), Greasewood Steppe (239), Greasewood Sage Steppe (277), Great Plains Badlands (166), Great Plains Riparian (255), Low Density Sage Steppe (776), Medium Density Sage Steppe (783), Mixed Grass Prairie (555), Mixed Grass Prairie Burned (278), Ponderosa Pine Woodland and Shrubland (512), Riparian Floodplain (223), Semi-Desert Grassland (103), Sparsely Vegetated Mixed Shrub (252), Silver Sage Flat (70) , Silver Sage Steppe (64), and Water (246). When insufficient field data were available for a class, we augmented it through photointerpretation of...
Collaboration on the Wind River: Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho team up with scientist coalition
The Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes on the Wind River Indian Reservation in Wyoming are preparing for drought and other climate fluctuations with help from a broad coalition of scientists. Read More: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sites/drought.gov.drought/files/media/whatisnidis/Newsletter/October%202015%20v4.pdf
Members of the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes have been working with an interdisciplinary team of social, ecological, and climate scientists from the North Central CSC, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and the National Drought Mitigation Center along with other university and agency partners to prepare regular climate and drought summaries to aid in managing water resources on the Wind River Reservation and in surrounding areas.
This study investigates potential changes in erosion rates in the Midwestern United States under climate change, including the adaptation of crop management to climate change. Previous studies of erosion under climate change have not taken into account farmer choices of crop rotations or planting dates, which will adjust to compensate for climate change. In this study, changes in management were assigned based on previous studies of crop yield, optimal planting date, and most profitable rotations under climate change in the Midwestern United States. Those studies predicted future shifts from maize and wheat to soybeans based on price and yield advantages to soybeans. In the results of our simulations, for 10 of...
Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on Fish and Wildlife: A Conservation Effects Assessment Bibliography
This paper presents results of a study to assess the impacts of climate change on Midwestern streams and the ability of alternative regulations to maintain critical stream conditions. The study focuses on two generic types of regulations, those that restrict withdrawals to a constant flowrate at all times and those that allow withdrawals to increase and decrease with streamflow. Trading of water withdrawal permits is also considered as an adjunt to both policies. The study uses a modeling technique based on the SWAT model, applied to data for a Midwestern river basin. Streamflow was assumed stressed by agricultural irrigation, which is most intense during times when natural streamflows are at their lowest even without...