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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
Because of concerns with the growing threat of global climate change from increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, the United States and other countries are implementing, by themselves or in cooperation with one or more other nations, climate change mitigation projects. These projects will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or sequester carbon, and will also result in non-GHG benefits (i.e., environmental, economic, and social benefits). Monitoring, evaluating, reporting, and verifying (MERV) guidelines are needed for these projects to accurately determine their net GHG, and other, benefits. Implementation of MERV guidelines is also intended to: (1) increase the reliability of data for estimating GHG benefits;...
We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and...
Improving energy efficiency is the most effective and least expensive way to reduce carbon dioxide (C02) emissions in most industrialized nations - including the UK. A report from the UKAEA's own Energy Technology Support Unit concludes that energy efficiency can displace nearly four times more C02 than nuclear power can - more quickly and more cost-effectively. Each pound invested in efficient lighting can displace four to five times as much C02 as a pound invested in new nuclear power. Meanwhile, given recent dramatic progress in renewable energy technologies, the most promising long-term COz-abatement strategy may be a synergistic combination of energy efficiency and renewable energy.
Our responses to the emerging challenges of energy planning have to be faster and more effective than they have been so far. While the Gulf war has forced us to realise the danger, it is to be hoped that the solutions that are sought will take the form not of short-term palliatives but of a new direction in our planning effort. Sixth of a series of articles discussing the broad approach of the Planning Commission under the V P Singh government.
The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers...
Until large numbers of bat fatalities began to be reported at certain North American wind energy facilities, wildlife concerns regarding wind energy focused primarily on bird fatalities. Due in part to mitigation to reduce bird fatalities, bat fatalities now outnumber those of birds. To test one mitigation option aimed at reducing bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, we altered the operational parameters of 21 turbines at a site with high bat fatalities in southwestern Alberta, Canada, during the peak fatality period. By altering when turbine rotors begin turning in low winds, either by changing the wind-speed trigger at which the turbine rotors are allowed to begin turning or by altering blade angles to reduce...
Until large numbers of bat fatalities began to be reported at certain North American wind energy facilities, wildlife concerns regarding wind energy focused primarily on bird fatalities. Due in part to mitigation to reduce bird fatalities, bat fatalities now outnumber those of birds. To test one mitigation option aimed at reducing bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, we altered the operational parameters of 21 turbines at a site with high bat fatalities in southwestern Alberta, Canada, during the peak fatality period. By altering when turbine rotors begin turning in low winds, either by changing the wind-speed trigger at which the turbine rotors are allowed to begin turning or by altering blade angles to reduce...
Over the past several years, the State of Washington has invested substantial time and energy to streamline the environmental regulatory and permit process. The creation of the Multi-Agency Permitting Team (MAP team) pilot is one such strategic investment. The concept is based on the idea that an interagency team composed of diverse disciplines, located within one office, will experience enhanced communication, coordination, and higher-quality, more timely permit decisions. Currently, the MAP team consists of staff from five government agencies: the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington State Department of Ecology, Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington State Department of transportation,...
In this paper the precautionary principle is reviewed alongside the process of international implementation. Adoption of the precautionary principle is advocated to deal with energy choices as a mechanism to account for potential climate change impacts, notwithstanding the debate on scientific uncertainty on the links between solar activity, greenhouse gas concentration and climate. However, it is also recognized that the widespread application of the precautionary principle to energy choices does not seem to be taking place in the real world. Relevant concrete barriers are identified stemming from the intrinsic logic governing the hegemonic economic system, driving the energy choices by economic surplus and rent...
Increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries's strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits, which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made. This paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in Scotland, a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy. The external effects we consider are those on landscape quality, wildlife and air quality. We also consider the welfare implications of...
In this paper part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. The investigation included the interaction with biogeochemical cycles, the effects of clouds and aerosols, ice flow instability, albedo instability and modified ocean circulation. In this paper our results for clouds and aerosols and for biogeochemical cycles are reported.
This paper presents information relevant to rule-making for geopressuredgeothermal development on state-owned lands. The analysis is focused on those potential social and economic effects of resource development, if any, which may require special attention during the leasing and permitting process. For the most part, many of the expected socioeconomic impacts are not unique to geothermal development, but are already being felt by residents of the fairways because of ongoing developmental activities. The social and economic impacts likely to result from resource development depend upon characteristics specific to the site and surrounding social and economic systems. Specific impacts and their probability, magnitude,...
This paper presents information relevant to rule-making for geopressuredgeothermal development on state-owned lands. The analysis is focused on those potential social and economic effects of resource development, if any, which may require special attention during the leasing and permitting process. For the most part, many of the expected socioeconomic impacts are not unique to geothermal development, but are already being felt by residents of the fairways because of ongoing developmental activities. The social and economic impacts likely to result from resource development depend upon characteristics specific to the site and surrounding social and economic systems. Specific impacts and their probability, magnitude,...
This paper summarizes the main results of a study on the costs of abatement of CO2 emissions in Brazil. It discusses three possible futures for the long run (2010 and 2025) activity of the Brazilian economy and -- with the help of a linear programming model for Brazil's energy sector -- three scenarios for energy production and use. One of these scenarios illustrates the possibility of halving future carbon emissions originating from energy generation and consumption, with relatively small increases in energy associated costs and investments. This abatement scenario would require, on the supply side of the Brazilian energy balance, increased amounts of hydropower, ethanol and bagasse from sugarcane, plus wood and...
In this paper, we present an economic analysis of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This technique entails injection of CO2 into mature oil fields in a manner that reduces the oil's viscosity, thereby enhancing the rate of extraction. As part of this process, significant quantities of CO2 remain sequestered in the reservoir. If CO2 emissions are regulated, oil producers using EOR should therefore be able to earn revenues from sequestration as well as from oil production. We develop a theoretical framework that analyzes the dynamic co-optimization of oil extraction and CO2 sequestration, through the producer's choice of the fraction of CO2 in the injection stream at each moment. We find that the optimal fraction of...
Stabilising the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at a level of 450 ppm in order to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C requires an ambitious climate policy. This study analyses the role of different technologies in the EU-27 with regard to efficiency improvements, fuel switching and energy saving measures under such a climate policy target. The analysis is carried out using the regionalised Pan-European TIMES energy system model, a technology oriented, linear optimisation model. Thereby limited resources and import potentials of various energy carriers, competition among different sectors and the country-specific differences in energy demand are taken into account. As a result, it turns out that the...
Nations must work together to minimize the risk of global warming. A worldwide energy efficiency campaign - led and coordinated by an International Energy Efficiency Agency (IEEA) - could be a critical component in such an effort. The IEEA could: I) strengthen energy efficiency efforts in industrialized countries; 2) help to build capability for implementing energy efficiency improvements in developing and East European countries; 3) provide capital for large-scale energy efficiency investments in developing and East European nations. Appropriate activities for the IEEA include information dissemination; joint R& D programrues; demonstration of technologies as well as policy instruments; training or supporting national...
Firm estimates have been given of the oil, gas and gas-liquid reserves that Mexico is likely to develop in the next decade or more. But the decision has yet to be made as to how fast and how far its energy resources should be developed. One faction, including the Pemex technocrats, believe that foreign capital should be utilized with all speed, to accelerate Mexico's export of energy products, especially to the US. Another group argues that the development of domestic and agrarian enterprises should be granted a higher priority. The resolution of the debate, and the recovery of the world oil market, will determine whether Mexico will become one of the richest or the most unstable of the oil exporters in the Third...


map background search result map search result map Publication: A blind spot in climate change Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: A blind spot in climate change