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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables....
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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Final Report - Executive Summary: This final project report is prepared to summarize the research project titled “Assessing evapotranspiration rate changes for proposed restoration of the forested uplands of the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC)” for the Desert LCC of the Bureau of Reclamation as a requirement for closing out the project. This report includes the scope of work, summary of research project, results, and conclusions.Among all of the components of the terrestrial water cycle, evapotranspiration (ET) consumes the largest amount of water. Accurate estimation of ET is very important to understand the influence of ET to the hydrologic response of recharge and runoff processes in the water...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR, ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR, All tags...
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Description: The upper Gila River in New Mexico is one of the few unobstructed rivers in the Colorado River Basin with largely intact native fish populations, including four federally listed and one state listed species.Freshwater systems throughout the West continue to be threatened by human encroachment and water development. Methodologies or decision support tools to evaluate resource management practices that foster an understanding of how fish species adapt to the effects of climate change are critical to future resource management planning.
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Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species or populations at risk from global climate change, but few translate impact assessments to climate change adaptation actions. Furthermore, most climate change adaptation efforts emphasize where to implement management actions, whereas timing remains largely overlooked. The rate of modern climate change introduces urgency in evaluating whether delaying conservation actions compromises their efficacy for reaching important conservation targets. We evaluated the importance of multiple climate change adaptation strategies including timing of actions on preventing extinctions for a threatened climate-sensitive species, the Eastern Massasauga...
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Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely recognized as among the most important threats to global biodiversity. New analytical approaches are providing improved ability to predict the effects of landscape change on population connectivity at vast spatial extents. This paper presents an analysis of population connectivity for three species of conservation concern [swift fox (Vulpes velox); lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus); massasuaga (Sistrurus catenatus)] across the American Great Plains region. We used factorial least-cost path and resistant kernel analyses to predict effects of landscape conditions on corridor network connectivity. Our predictions of population connectivity provide testable...
Categories: Data, Project, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, CO-01, CO-02, CO-03, CO-04, All tags...
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Genetic, demographic, and environmental processes affect natural populations synergistically, and understanding their interplay is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. Stream fishes in metapopulations are particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation because persistence depends on dispersal and colonization of new habitat but dispersal is constrained to stream networks. Great Plains streams are increasingly fragmented by water diversion and climate change, threatening connectivity of fish populations in this ecosystem. We used seven microsatellite loci to describe population and landscape genetic patterns across 614 individuals from 12 remaining populations of Arkansas darter ( Etheostoma cragini) in...
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Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e. how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? We measured above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span...
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Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e. how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? We measured above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)...
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Streams across the world are highly fragmented due to the presence of in-stream barriers (e.g., dams and stream-road crossings), many of which restrict or block fish passage. Retrofitting or replacing these structures is a high priority for restoring habitat connectivity for native fishes and other aquatic organisms in the Pacific Northwest. The task of restoring habitat connectivity for problematic stream-road crossings is daunting given the many thousands of barriers that are present and the massive financial investments required. Further, the potential risks to road infrastructure from flooding, debris flows, and climate change will need to be addressed to ensure the best allocation of resources. In this study,...
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Above- and belowground production in coastal wetlands are important contributors to carbon accumulation and ecosystem sustainability. As sea level rises, we can expect shifts to more salt-tolerant communities, which may alter these ecosystem functions and services. Although the direct influence of salinity on species-level primary production has been documented, we lack an understanding of the landscape-level response of coastal wetlands to increasing salinity. What are the indirect effects of sea-level rise, i.e. how does primary production vary across a landscape gradient of increasing salinity that incorporates changes in wetland type? We measured above- and belowground production in four wetland types that span...
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The overarching goal of this research was to use site-specific data to develop local and regionally-applicable climate change models that inform management of tidal wetlands along the Pacific Northwest coast. The overarching questions were: (1) how do tidal marsh site characteristics vary across estuaries, and (2) does tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise (SLR) vary along a latitudinal gradient and between estuaries? These questions are addressed in this data collection with three specific objectives: (1) measure topographical and ecological characteristics (e.g., elevation, tidal range, vegetation composition) for tidal marsh and intertidal mudflats, (2) model SLR vulnerability of these habitats, and (3)...
Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
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Conclusions: Grizzly bear population fragmentation corresponded to the presence of settled mountain valleys and major highways. In these disturbed areas, the inter-area movements of female bears was affected more than for male bears. Without female connectivity, small subpopulations of grizzly bears are not viable over the long term. Thresholds/Learnings: Females grizzlies reduced their movement rates drastically when settlement increased to >20% of a given area. In highly settled areas (>50% settlement), both sexes demonstrated similar reductions in movement. Synopsis: Researchers studied the current state and potential causes of population fragmentation in grizzly bears over western Canada, the Greater Yellowstone...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Alberta, British Columbia, Canadian Rockies, Chilcotin Ranges and Fraser Plateau, Clear Hills and Western Alberta Upland, All tags...
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Intrafragment ecology is little studied for imperiled riverine fishes although river fragmentation and habitat loss increasingly threaten sensitive species. A long-term population-monitoring program in the Pecos River, New Mexico, provided detailed data for 15 annual cohorts of speckled chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis), which were used to assess intrafragment patterns in recruitment and year-class strength in relation to distributional patterns, flow-regime characteristics, and air temperature. Cohorts avoided a degraded upstream reach. Age-1 and older individuals had distributions consistently centered within a central, relict-ecosystem reach that contained high-quality habitat. Age-0 individuals were widespread...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), CATFISHES/MINNOWS, Climate Change, Climate Change, All tags...
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The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed...
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Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected...
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Many waterbird species utilize a diversity of aquatic habitats; however, with increasing anthropogenic needs tomanage water regimes there is global concern over impacts to waterbird populations. The federally threatened pipingplover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plovers) is a shorebird that breeds in three habitat types in the Prairie PotholeRegion of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Canada: riverine sandbars; reservoir shorelines; and prairie wetlands. Watersurface areas of these habitats fluctuate in response to wet–dry periods; decreasing water surface areas exposeshorelines that plovers utilize for nesting. Climate varies across the region so when other habitats are unavailable forplover nesting because of flooding,...


map background search result map search result map Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940–2100 Population fragmentation and inter-ecosystem movements of grizzly bears in western Canada and the northern United States. Where the Stream Meets the Road: Prioritizing Culvert Replacement for Fish Passage - Thesis Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. (2012-2014) Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. above- and belowground primary production (2012-2014) data Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. environmental data (2012-2014) Sea-level rise projections for and observational data of tidal marshes along the California coast Report and Publications: Assessing Evapotranspiration Rate Changes for Proposed Restoration of the Forested Uplands of the DLCC Science Brief for Resource Managers: Metacommunity Dynamics of Gila River Fishes Publication: A blind spot in climate change Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Publication: Intrafragment riverscape conservation for an imperiled, small-bodied, pelagic-broadcast spawning minnow: speckled chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis) Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands Publication: Water availability strongly impacts population genetic patterns of an imperiled Great Plains endemic fish Publication: Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. (2012-2014) Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. above- and belowground primary production (2012-2014) data Primary production across a coastal wetland landscape in Louisiana, U.S.A. environmental data (2012-2014) Where the Stream Meets the Road: Prioritizing Culvert Replacement for Fish Passage - Thesis Science Brief for Resource Managers: Metacommunity Dynamics of Gila River Fishes Publication: Water availability strongly impacts population genetic patterns of an imperiled Great Plains endemic fish Publication: Intrafragment riverscape conservation for an imperiled, small-bodied, pelagic-broadcast spawning minnow: speckled chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis) Report and Publications: Assessing Evapotranspiration Rate Changes for Proposed Restoration of the Forested Uplands of the DLCC Sea-level rise projections for and observational data of tidal marshes along the California coast Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940–2100 Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands Publication: A blind spot in climate change Publication: Delaying conservation actions matters for species vulnerable to climate change Population fragmentation and inter-ecosystem movements of grizzly bears in western Canada and the northern United States.