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The PFLCC has recently completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological and urbanistic conditions. These spatially explicit and temporal scenarios simulate both urban growth and climate change and identify the most suitable areas for conservation given the resulting land use pattern. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements.The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully...
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The PFLCC has recently completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological and urbanistic conditions. These spatially explicit and temporal scenarios simulate both urban growth and climate change and identify the most suitable areas for conservation given the resulting land use pattern. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements.The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully...
Current binomial (presence/absence) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from PRISM (Daly et al. 2004) averaged for the years 1971-2000.
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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For management agencies, there is a growing need to understand (1) how climate change affects and will continue to affect wildlife populations of conservation concern, and (2) how the negative Upper Midwest Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative Request for Funding 2013 demographic effects of climate change can be mitigated through management strategies. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) integrates available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, details assumptions and uncertainties, and ultimately projects population-level responses of target species to future climate change. Climate change is already influencing distributions and abundances of species throughout North...
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This map shows areas of high current, near-term, and long-term potential landscape development, based on factors such as urban areas, agriculture, roads, and energy development.
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Freshwater Resilience, Highest and High, Watersheds for Complex and Non-complex Stream Networks, Northeast U.S. is one of a suite of products from the Nature’s Network project (naturesnetwork.org).As growing human populations increase the pace of climate and land use changes, estimating the resilience of freshwater systems will be increasingly important for delivering effective long-term conservation. A region-wide analysis of freshwater stream networks was developed by Mark Anderson and associates at The Nature Conservancy (Anderson et al., 2013) to estimate the capacity of each network to cope with climatic and environmental change. The analysis centered on the evaluation resiliency: characteristics that may...
These data are netcdf files of the projected timing of the onset of thermal stress severe enough (>8 Degree Heating Weeks) to cause coral bleaching 2x per decade and 10x per decade (annual) under emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The projected timing (a year between 2006 and 2100) is the data value. Values are only shown for the ~60,000 four-km pixels where coral reefs are known to occur.
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The percentage difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on April 1 for the reference (1989-2011) climate period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on April 1 for the T4 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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Mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on February 20, the date of peak basin-integrated mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) for the T4 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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This data set contains links that are important to each species' habitat network. Those important links are scored based on the percent currently under protection status, projected change in climate suitability by the middle of the 21st century, and projected change in percent urbanized by the middle of the 21st century. Important links were identified from all links in the networks of each species based on their Integral Index of Connectivity (dIIC). Any links with dIIC scores > 0.9 or which connected to nodes with dIIC > 0.9 were retained here as "important" links.
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Genetic, demographic, and environmental processes affect natural populations synergistically, and understanding their interplay is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. Stream fishes in metapopulations are particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation because persistence depends on dispersal and colonization of new habitat but dispersal is constrained to stream networks. Great Plains streams are increasingly fragmented by water diversion and climate change, threatening connectivity of fish populations in this ecosystem. We used seven microsatellite loci to describe population and landscape genetic patterns across 614 individuals from 12 remaining populations of Arkansas darter ( Etheostoma cragini) in...
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Within grassland communities of the GPLCC one such key indicator species is the Lesser Prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidinctus). Lesser Prairie-chicken range extends across the southern portion of the GPLCC area throughout Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. Lesser Prairie-chickens are a good target species because they are widely distributed across the southern GPLCC, are a species of conservation concern, have large home ranges, and are likely sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances. Similarly, the Greater Prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), is a species of conservation concern, with large home range, distributed across the northern portion of the GPLCC including portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska,...
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Rate of global biodiversity loss increased significantly during the 20th century associated with human environmental alterations. Specifically, mismanagement of freshwater resources contributed to historical and contemporary loss of stream-dwelling fish diversity and will likely play a role in determining the persistence of species in the future. We present a mechanistic pathway by which human alteration of streams has caused the decline of a unique reproductive guild of Great Plains stream-dwelling fishes, and suggest how future climate change might exacerbate these declines. Stream fragmentation related to impoundments, diversion dams and stream dewatering are consequences of increasing demand for freshwater resources...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, AR-04, CATFISHES/MINNOWS, CO-03, CT-04, All tags...
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We propose to use long-term fish-population data from a relict reach of the Pecos River, New Mexico to assess population dynamics of imperiled prairie-river minnows, including Arkansas River shiner. Development of viable management strategies requires basic understanding of population ecology. Rigorous, quantitative ecological methods can be used to analyze continuous, long-term demographic data, but such data are rarely available for imperiled, non-game fishes. Data available for the Pecos River provide a unique opportunity to apply quantitative methods to prairie-river minnow conservation and management. Analyses proposed here would determine (1) whether population regulation is density dependent or flow-regime...
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This project will create a targeted and easily understandable guide to tools that support landscape-level planning in the face of climate change for NPLCC partners. The guide will build on previous NPLCC research on decision support needs with an emphasis on tools currently in use in the region. A survey of NPLCC partners will discover who is currently using or planning to use tools in the region, tools they are using, how well these tools are meeting their needs, and regional and outside experts engaged in tool use. Additional tools research will provide information on tools not currently in use in the region that could also provide needed functionality.
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The central objective of this project was to answer two questions: 1) how downscaled climate datasets, modeled vegetation changes, and information on estimated species sensitivities can be used to develop climate change adaptation strategies, and 2) how model results and datasets can be made more useful for informing the management of species and landscapes. To answer these questions, we identified enthusiastic partners working in two very different complex landscapes within the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC): 1) the British Columbia Park system, specifically the midcoast region, and 2) the National Wildlife Refuge system in the Willamette Valley, OR. The issues and concerns of each group...


map background search result map search result map Consequences of stream fragmentation and climate change for rare Great Plains fishes Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Colorado Plateau REA Change Agents - Development - Current, Near-Term, and Long-Term Potential High Landscape Development Northern Leopard Frog: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models NPLCC Guide to Planning Tools Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation:  Case Studies in the North Pacific LCC - Final Report Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected April 1 values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Analysis Data: Conservation status, genetics, and population vulnerability of Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) in Colorado Final Report: Development of regional planning tools to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on a sensitive grassland bird Freshwater Resilience, Highest and High, Watersheds for Complex and Non-complex Stream Networks, Northeast U.S Important links for Black bear, Rafinesque's big-eared bat, and timber rattlesnake Publication: A blind spot in climate change Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Habitat Grids Statewide Impact Assessment Reports Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected April 1 values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected seasonal peak values under T4 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] NPLCC Guide to Planning Tools Analysis Data: Conservation status, genetics, and population vulnerability of Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) in Colorado Northern Leopard Frog: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows Habitat Grids Statewide Impact Assessment Reports Colorado Plateau REA Change Agents - Development - Current, Near-Term, and Long-Term Potential High Landscape Development Consequences of stream fragmentation and climate change for rare Great Plains fishes Final Report: Development of regional planning tools to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on a sensitive grassland bird Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Freshwater Resilience, Highest and High, Watersheds for Complex and Non-complex Stream Networks, Northeast U.S Publication: A blind spot in climate change Important links for Black bear, Rafinesque's big-eared bat, and timber rattlesnake Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation:  Case Studies in the North Pacific LCC - Final Report Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative