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Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0236.1): Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction methods, and a new one developed here, are applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM. The quantile mapping (QM) and cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) bias correction methods can significantly alter the GCM’s mean climate change signal, with differences of up to 2°C and 30% points for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, respectively. Equidistant quantile...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: EIA, bias, energy forecasting
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In 'Simulation to evaluate response of population models to annual trends in detectability', we provide data and R code necessary to create simulation scenarios and estimate trends with different population models (Monroe et al. 2019). Literature cited: Monroe, A. P., G. T. Wann, C. L. Aldridge, and P. S. Coates. 2019. The importance of simulation assumptions when evaluating detectability in population models. Ecosphere 10(7):e02791. 10.1002/ecs2.2791, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.2791/full.
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During Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Florida and Georgia experienced significant impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses result in increased immediate and long-term hazards to shorelines that include densely populated regions. These hazards put critical infrastructure at risk to future flooding and erosion and may cause economic losses. The USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program (CMHRP) is assessing hurricane-induced coastal erosion along the southeast US coastline and implications for vulnerability to future storms. Shoreline positions were compiled prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic...
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During Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Florida and Georgia experienced significant impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses result in increased immediate and long-term hazards to shorelines that include densely populated regions. These hazards put critical infrastructure at risk to future flooding and erosion and may cause economic losses. The USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program (CMHRP) is assessing hurricane-induced coastal erosion along the southeast US coastline and implications for vulnerability to future storms. Shoreline positions were compiled prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic...
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During Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Florida and Georgia experienced significant impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses result in increased immediate and long-term hazards to shorelines that include densely populated regions. These hazards put critical infrastructure at risk to future flooding and erosion and may cause economic losses. The USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program (CMHRP) is assessing hurricane-induced coastal erosion along the southeast US coastline and implications for vulnerability to future storms. Shoreline positions were compiled prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: EIA, bias, energy forecasting
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: EIA, bias, energy forecasting
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Studies utilizing Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry rarely result in 100% fix success rates (FSR). Many assessments of wildlife resource use do not account for missing data, either assuming data loss is random or because a lack of practical treatment for systematic data loss. Several studies have explored how the environment, technological features, and animal behavior influence rates of missing data in GPS telemetry, but previous spatially explicit models developed to correct for sampling bias have been specified to small study areas, on a small range of data loss, or to be species-specific, limiting their general utility. Here we explore environmental effects on GPS fix acquisition rates across a wide...
Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed...
The concept of managing the environment and any associated human health impacts by means of such science-based tools as toxicological evaluation, risk assessment, and economic appraisal has become widely accepted in professional circles. These increasingly complex methodologies have not won universal support, however, even among the technically minded, and the wider public has in many cases remained sceptical. The public’s seeming lack of enthusiasm has frequently been assigned to ignorance of science, irrationality even, and some attempts have been made to ameliorate the situation by means of education, though with little evidence of success. However, this review advances an alternative explanation, namely, that...
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During Hurricane Irma in September 2017, Florida and Georgia experienced significant impacts to beaches, dunes, barrier islands, and coral reefs. Extensive erosion and coral losses result in increased immediate and long-term hazards to shorelines that include densely populated regions. These hazards put critical infrastructure at risk to future flooding and erosion and may cause economic losses. The USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program (CMHRP) is assessing hurricane-induced coastal erosion along the southeast US coastline and implications for vulnerability to future storms. Shoreline positions were compiled prior to and following Hurricane Irma along the sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic...
Low-flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index-streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin (‘index streamgage’) to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index-streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information-transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index-streamgage selection...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: EIA, bias, energy forecasting


    map background search result map search result map Variable Terrestrial GPS Telemetry Detection Rates: Parts 1 - 7—Data Simulation to evaluate response of population models to annual trends in detectability Bias Feature for the Florida panhandle (FLph) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Florida west coast (FLwc) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Georgia coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Florida east coast (FLec) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Georgia coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Florida west coast (FLwc) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Florida panhandle (FLph) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Bias Feature for the Florida east coast (FLec) coastal region containing proxy-datum bias information to be used in the Digital Shoreline Analysis System version 5 Simulation to evaluate response of population models to annual trends in detectability Variable Terrestrial GPS Telemetry Detection Rates: Parts 1 - 7—Data