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Rocky Mountain Research Station scientists initiated a study in the 1990s on avian distribution and habitat associations within the Sky Islands. By re-measuring vegetation and bird populations following wildfires and applying climate change models, they will assess the singular and synergistic effects of climate change and wildfire and provide strategies for managing resilient forests and conserving the avian community structure. They will also continue and expand citizen science efforts to develop a long term avian monitoring plan, as well as simulation studies to provide optimal monitoring designs for avian species to detect changes from large-scale stressors.
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Although it is certain that climate change will affect the hydrology and biota of Great Plains streams, how and where these effects will be manifested is not known. This project will predict the effects of climate change on these streams by creating watershed hydrology and fish assemblage models that are both linked to watershed characteristics, then predicting changes resulting from climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models. We will identify the areas of primary conservation concern by calculating Index of Biotic Integrity values for 1,600 samples in an existing regional fish database and compare them to the areas that are most likely to experience change under future climate scenarios.
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The project will use baseline data on pre-restoration measures of baseline hydrology and water quality to evaluate the impacts of large scale wetland and prairire restorations on hydrology and water quality including: recovery of key habitats and functions; abilities of wetlands to buffer variable water flows; ability of groundwater to buffer water flows; groundwater and surface water quality; changes in groundwater movement; rates of denitrification and carbon storage/ transport.
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The concept of adaptive management provides a set of good business principles to guide strategic habitat conservation, but these principles are only useful if they are put into practice through a complimentary set of business operations. To that end, if conservation is going to be successful operating at landscape scales, the conservation community must start thinking and functioning like a conservation enterprise. Much more emphasis must be placed on developing and supporting business operations that facilitate the flow of information and other resources at landscape scales. Just like successful national and global businesses, we need to develop an information supply chain to support the communication, coordination,...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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Many ecosystem models, particularly those that are “mechanistic” (based on an understanding of processes), are over-parameterized (not identifiable). As a result, model parameters are selected (not estimated using an optimization technique), parametererror/covariance terms become extremely difficult to estimate, and Monte Carlo error propagation does not adequately capture the effect of all uncertain model terms. In those situations, techniques that evolved from Regional (Generalized) Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Bayes Monte Carlo, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are preferred techniques for model error propagation. These techniques can be used to...
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The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a familiar species across the southeastern Coastal Plain, but its population has declined significantly over the decades. One reason is that much of its primary habitat, sparse stands of mature pine, has been replaced by development or agriculture. Another is that periodic ground fires, which are important for providing needed forage for the tortoise, have been largely suppressed on the landscape. The gopher tortoise is a “keystone” species, meaning that its disappearance from the landscape would jeopardize the existence of many other species that make use of its underground burrows. Besides tortoise habitat, the uplands of the Coastal Plain contain isolated seasonal...


map background search result map search result map Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Managing for Resilience in Prairie-Wetland Landscapes of the PPP - Sustaining Habitats and Services under Accelerating Climate Change Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Assessing Large-Scale Effects of Wildfire and Climate Change on Avian Communities and Habitats in the Sky Islands, Arizona Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Assessing Large-Scale Effects of Wildfire and Climate Change on Avian Communities and Habitats in the Sky Islands, Arizona Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Managing for Resilience in Prairie-Wetland Landscapes of the PPP - Sustaining Habitats and Services under Accelerating Climate Change Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System