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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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Phase 1 & 2 (2010, 2012): This project developed a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley and in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and develop an LCC-specific online shorebird monitoring portal publicly available at the California Avian Data Center. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
We will develop SMART-SLEUTH, an advanced spatially explicit modeling framework designed to augment the current SLEUTH model with sophisticated smart-growth capabilities. Based on the latest version of SLEUTH, we will create an open-source GIS-enabled software package that will implement SMART-SLEUTH with advanced modules and tools for evaluating, predicting, and visualizing smart growth scenarios and outcomes. In this software package, a more user friendly Graphic User Interface (GUI), a multi-level automatic calibration approach built on machine learning algorithms, and new spatial landscape metrics for quantifying land change patterns will provide enhanced support for complex model configuration, calibration,...
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) recently completed an unprecedented assessment of almost 14,000 dams in the Northeastern United States. The Northeast Aquatic Connectivity (NAC) project allows fisheries managers and other interested parties to assess dams at multiple scales based on their potential to benefit anadromous and resident fish species if removed or bypassed. This work has continued, with support from NOAA and USFWS, in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, where data refinements and further analysis have produced a web map and tool that allow users to interactively prioritize dams for mitigation at multiple scales and with varying criteria.The Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership (SARP) has recently completed...
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We propose to use long-term fish-population data from a relict reach of the Pecos River, New Mexico to assess population dynamics of imperiled prairie-river minnows, including Arkansas River shiner. Development of viable management strategies requires basic understanding of population ecology. Rigorous, quantitative ecological methods can be used to analyze continuous, long-term demographic data, but such data are rarely available for imperiled, non-game fishes. Data available for the Pecos River provide a unique opportunity to apply quantitative methods to prairie-river minnow conservation and management. Analyses proposed here would determine (1) whether population regulation is density dependent or flow-regime...
Vernal or seasonal pools are small, temporary bodies of water that can serve as critical habitat for frogs, salamanders, reptiles, invertebrates, and other species. The first step in developing effective conservation strategies for vernal pools and associated wildlife species is to know where on the landscape these small wetlands exist. Although several several states and organizations in the Northeast region have initiated coordinated vernal pool mapping projects, this information has never been assembled in one place.Currently, the Vernal Pool Data Cooperative (VPDC) consists of over 60,000 vernal pool locations submitted by cooperators representing ten states and two Canadian provinces from Virginia to Quebec’s...
Ferguson Lynch is contracted through Wildlife Management Institute for the creation, IT support and ongoing maintenance of a website for the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, including web portal and cloud services.
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The sky island forests of the southwestern United States are one of the most diverse temperate forest ecosystems in the world, providing key habitat for migrating and residential species alike. Black bear, bighorn sheep, mule deer, and wild turkey are just a few of the species found in these isolated mountain ecosystems that rise out of the desert landscape. However, recent droughts have crippled these ecosystems, causing significant tree death. Climate predictions suggest that this region will only face hotter and drier conditions in the future, potentially stressing these ecosystems even further. Simple models predict that vegetation will move to cooler and wetter locations in response to this warming. However,...
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There is growing evidence that headwater stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changing climate and land use, but managers are challenged by the need to address these threats at a landscape scale, often through coordination with multiple management agencies and landowners. This project sought to provide an example of cooperative landscape decision-making by addressing the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems in the face of climate change at the watershed scale. Predictive models were built for critical resources to examine the effects of the potential alternative actions on the objectives, taking account of climate effects and examining whether there are key uncertainties that impede decision making....
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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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The goal of this project was to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy” based on climate science and ecological forecasting. Project objectives were to: 1. Forecast ecosystem processes and WBP habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) under alternative IPCC future scenarios; 2. Improve understanding of possible response to future climate by analyzing WBP/climate relationships in past millennia; 3. Develop WBP management alternatives; 4. Evaluate the alternatives under IPCC future scenarios in terms of WBP goals, ecosystem services, and costs of implementation; and 5. Draw recommendations for implementation...
This project will provide a comprehensive synthesis of beaver recolonization science and techniques for successful reintroduction or population expansion through a thorough, in-depth, coordinated review of all North American beaver-related information, including identification of research gaps and data needs, and recommendations for project implementation. This information will be disseminated through a series of one-day workshops.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, AK-1, Alaska, Alaska, Alaska, All tags...
The Southeast Aquatic Resource Partnership will direct development of science-based instream flow information for water resource managers and policy makers of the SALCC. The outcome of this project will help inform water resource managers and policy makers about flow requirements of streams, rivers, and estuaries of the SALCC region. It will also identify critical information gaps that must be filled to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow requirements for aquatic ecosystems used by state and federal agencies to protect water resources. Further, the results of this project will include assessments of the likely impacts of climate change to the region’s aquatic resources.
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Comprehensive geospatial data covering the area of the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative is needed to better inform and improve countless conservation efforts and help partners convey a shared vision and priorities for this area in geospatial terms.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, 2016, 2017, Academics & scientific researchers, Applications and Tools, All tags...
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Understanding the changes in the distribution and quantity of, and demand for, water resources in response to a changing climate is essential to planning for, and adapting to, future climatic conditions. In order to plan for future conditions and challenges, it is crucial that managers understand the limitations and uncertainties associated with the characterization of these changes when making management decisions. Changes in consumptive water use (water removed without return to a water resources system) will change streamflow, impacting downstream water users, their livelihoods, as well as aquatic ecosystems. Historical changes in available water may be attributed to changes in precipitation; but these changes...
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The conditions of coral reefs in the Hawaiian Islands are predicted to decline significantly from climate change over the next 100 years. To better prepare for the impacts of climate change on Hawaiian reefs, the research team uses a system of models to simulate ocean waves and circulation, rainfall and storm run-off, and coral reef community dynamics through the year 2100. These models will identify reef areas that are either vulnerable or resilient to the many stressors that the future may hold for reefs. The team’s hope is that this work can identify areas that might benefit from management actions to minimize local stressors such as land-based pollution. Through a collaborative partnership with state and federal...
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Forests in the eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest, and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees celsius. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...


map background search result map search result map Creating a detailed vegetation classification and digital vegetation map for Squaw Creek NWR Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Projecting the Future of Headwater Streams to inform Management Decisions Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Using Beaver for Climate Change and Conservation Benefits Conservation Planning Atlas for the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative Managing instream flows of the SALCC Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Creating a detailed vegetation classification and digital vegetation map for Squaw Creek NWR Predicting Sky Island Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Fine Scale Climate Variability, Drought Tolerance, and Fire Response Using Beaver for Climate Change and Conservation Benefits Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Population Management of Prairie-River Minnows A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Managing instream flows of the SALCC Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Conservation Planning Atlas for the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Projecting the Future of Headwater Streams to inform Management Decisions Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy