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Existing stream temperature data will be compiled from numerous federal, state, tribal, and private sources to develop an integrated regional database. Spatial statistical models for river networks will be applied to these data to develop an accurate model that predicts stream temperature for all fish-bearing streams in the US portion of the NPLCC. Differences between model outputs for historic and future climate scenarios will be used to assess spatial variation in the vulnerability of sensitive fish species across the NPLCC.
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Located between Wellfleet and Turo, Massachusetts, the 1100-acre Herring River watershed has historically provided many ecological and social benefits, including forest and wetland habitat for native fish, birds, and mammals and recreational and educational opportunities for residents and visitors. Construction of a dike and ditches beginning in the early 1900s constricted tidal exchange into the river basin, resulting in ecological degradation of the estuary, loss of valued salt marsh and extensive conversion to upland habitat vegetation. Tidal restrictions limit passage of fish species that spend their time in both fresh and salt water into the Herring River, have resulted in dangerous bacterial levels posing...
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Drought poses a major threat to New Mexico’s state fish, the Rio Grande cutthroat trout. This southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in New Mexico and Colorado, has already been restricted to an estimated 12% of its former range. Now climate change, in the form of lower winter snowpack and reduced precipitation, challenges its long-term persistence. This trout tends to occupy small and fragmented streams, which are at higher risk of drying up during drought events. Yet, the full extent of drought impacts to Rio Grande cutthroat trout is unknown. To address this knowledge gap, researchers examined the effects of drought - in particular stream intermittency - on the growth and survival of Rio Grande...
This is a collaborative project between the National Park Service (NPS) and Oregon State University (OSU) for the purpose of studying the genetic connectivity of pika populations in five NPS units. OSU researchers will use individual and population-based genetic analyses to systematically estimate genetic distances among individuals and gene flow among patches or populations in NPS units in two very different habitats (talus vs. lava beds). Genetic distances among individuals or gene flow among groups reflect (in part) the degree that individuals are related and that populations are interacting via dispersal. Thus, researchers will use variation in genetic distance or gene flow to infer how landscapes (e.g., dispersal...
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Rocky Mountain Research Station scientists initiated a study in the 1990s on avian distribution and habitat associations within the Sky Islands. By re-measuring vegetation and bird populations following wildfires and applying climate change models, they will assess the singular and synergistic effects of climate change and wildfire and provide strategies for managing resilient forests and conserving the avian community structure. They will also continue and expand citizen science efforts to develop a long term avian monitoring plan, as well as simulation studies to provide optimal monitoring designs for avian species to detect changes from large-scale stressors.
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Final Report WaterSMART Agreement No. R13AP80033Introduction: Sky Island Alliance is a non‐governmental organization that works to protect and restore the rich natural heritage of native species and habitats in the Sky Island Region. We work with volunteers, scientists, land‐owners, public officials, and government agencies to establish protected areas, restore healthy landscapes, and promote public appreciation of the region’s unique biological diversity.Springs are keystone ecosystems in the Sky Island Region, exert disproportionate influence on surrounding landscapes, and are known to be biodiversity hotspots. Although they are abundant in this arid region, they are poorly documented and little studied. Changing...
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Although it is certain that climate change will affect the hydrology and biota of Great Plains streams, how and where these effects will be manifested is not known. This project will predict the effects of climate change on these streams by creating watershed hydrology and fish assemblage models that are both linked to watershed characteristics, then predicting changes resulting from climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models. We will identify the areas of primary conservation concern by calculating Index of Biotic Integrity values for 1,600 samples in an existing regional fish database and compare them to the areas that are most likely to experience change under future climate scenarios.
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The project will use baseline data on pre-restoration measures of baseline hydrology and water quality to evaluate the impacts of large scale wetland and prairire restorations on hydrology and water quality including: recovery of key habitats and functions; abilities of wetlands to buffer variable water flows; ability of groundwater to buffer water flows; groundwater and surface water quality; changes in groundwater movement; rates of denitrification and carbon storage/ transport.
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The concept of adaptive management provides a set of good business principles to guide strategic habitat conservation, but these principles are only useful if they are put into practice through a complimentary set of business operations. To that end, if conservation is going to be successful operating at landscape scales, the conservation community must start thinking and functioning like a conservation enterprise. Much more emphasis must be placed on developing and supporting business operations that facilitate the flow of information and other resources at landscape scales. Just like successful national and global businesses, we need to develop an information supply chain to support the communication, coordination,...
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Temperate grassland ecosystems are imperiled globally, and habitat loss in North America has resulted in steepdeclines of endemic songbirds. Commercial livestock grazing is the primary land use in rangelands that supportremaining bird populations. Some conservationists suggest using livestock as “ecosystem engineers” to increasehabitat heterogeneity in rangelands because birds require a spectrum of sparse to dense vegetation cover.However, grazing effects remain poorly understood because local studies have not incorporated broad-scaleenvironmental constraints on herbaceous growth. We surveyed grassland birds across a region spanning26 500 km2 in northeast Montana, United States to assess how distribution and abundance...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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Working within the constraints of the SWAP revision timeline, we propose to advance biodiversity conservation within the region by enhancing the regional effectiveness of SWAPs and the ability of the LCC to address regional biodiversity priorities. We propose to accomplish these outcomes through engagement of SWAP coordinators and LCC professionals in the creation of a set of detailed best practices and learning resources tailored to needs that they help to identify. We will regularly engage with the SWAP coordinators as we develop these resources to allow each state to influence and employ the resources as needed, recognizing that time and resources to participate in this project will vary among states. As part...
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Many ecosystem models, particularly those that are “mechanistic” (based on an understanding of processes), are over-parameterized (not identifiable). As a result, model parameters are selected (not estimated using an optimization technique), parametererror/covariance terms become extremely difficult to estimate, and Monte Carlo error propagation does not adequately capture the effect of all uncertain model terms. In those situations, techniques that evolved from Regional (Generalized) Sensitivity Analysis (RSA), such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Bayes Monte Carlo, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are preferred techniques for model error propagation. These techniques can be used to...
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The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a familiar species across the southeastern Coastal Plain, but its population has declined significantly over the decades. One reason is that much of its primary habitat, sparse stands of mature pine, has been replaced by development or agriculture. Another is that periodic ground fires, which are important for providing needed forage for the tortoise, have been largely suppressed on the landscape. The gopher tortoise is a “keystone” species, meaning that its disappearance from the landscape would jeopardize the existence of many other species that make use of its underground burrows. Besides tortoise habitat, the uplands of the Coastal Plain contain isolated seasonal...
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The scaled quail is an important species that indicates the overall health of the habitats they occupy in the arid Southwest. Some populations are declining, which may be linked to the long-term trend in warmer, drier conditions and reduced monsoonal rainfall across their range. It’s believed that temperature and humidity levels have been too high, reducing the survival of eggs and chicks. Climate models project decreasing rainfall and warming temperatures to continue for the region, so understanding this linkage is becoming increasingly critical. To address this need, researchers sought to measure the success of scaled quail nests at locations across their range, to determine if nest success is related to temperature,...
map background search result map search result map Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Managing for Resilience in Prairie-Wetland Landscapes of the PPP - Sustaining Habitats and Services under Accelerating Climate Change Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Intermittency The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Assessing Large-Scale Effects of Wildfire and Climate Change on Avian Communities and Habitats in the Sky Islands, Arizona Developing a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution NorWeST climate scenarios for the NPLCC Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models Final Report and Appendices: Fire and Water: Assessing Springs Ecosystems and Adapting Management to Respond to Climate Change Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Report: Facilitating the Effectiveness of State Wildlife Action Plans at Multiple Scales in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes LCC: Findings and Recommendations Precipitation and Soil Productivity Explain Effects of Grazing on Grassland Songbirds Application of an Adaptive Management Plan to Reduce Uncertainty and Improve Decisions in Restoring the Herring River Estuary Application of an Adaptive Management Plan to Reduce Uncertainty and Improve Decisions in Restoring the Herring River Estuary Final Report and Appendices: Fire and Water: Assessing Springs Ecosystems and Adapting Management to Respond to Climate Change Assessing Large-Scale Effects of Wildfire and Climate Change on Avian Communities and Habitats in the Sky Islands, Arizona The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Intermittency Precipitation and Soil Productivity Explain Effects of Grazing on Grassland Songbirds Science to Support Adaptive Landscape Planning and Decision Making for Gopher Tortoise Conservation Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis and related techniques applied to landscape and ecological response models The Effects of Climate on Scaled Quail Reproduction and Survival Developing a comprehensive interagency stream temperature database and high-resolution NorWeST climate scenarios for the NPLCC Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Managing for Resilience in Prairie-Wetland Landscapes of the PPP - Sustaining Habitats and Services under Accelerating Climate Change Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Report: Facilitating the Effectiveness of State Wildlife Action Plans at Multiple Scales in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes LCC: Findings and Recommendations