Phase 1 & 2 (2010, 2012): This project developed a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley and in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and develop an LCC-specific online shorebird monitoring portal publicly available at the California Avian Data Center. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model...
This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
This project completed a Conservation Lands Network for biodiversity preservation which includes an on-line decision support tool, a GIS database, a computer software for finer scale planning, and a report card template. Project results may be found at The Conservation Lands Network website.
This project assessed the potential effects of climate change on tidal marsh habitats and bird populations, identified priority sites for tidal marsh conservation and restoration, and developed a web-based mapping tool for managers to interactively display and query results. Project results can be found at PRBO’s San Francisco Bay Sea-Level Rise Website
Vulnerability Analysis and Monitoring Program for Detecting Changes in San Francisco Bay Tidal Marsh Bird Populations
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
Climate-Driven Alteration of Intertidal Habitats for Migratory Birds in the San Francisco Bay Estuary
This project evaluates the effects of global climate change and sea level rise on estuarine intertidal habitat in the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Flyway migratory waterbirds that rely on this habitat. Phase 2 of this project is a continuation of work to evaluate the effects of global climate change and sea level rise (SLR) on intertidal shoals in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and the migratory waterbirds that rely on this critically important resource in the Pacific Flyway. The primary objectives are to: 1) use downscaled global climate change models to translate SLR and climate scenarios into habitat quantity predictions through Delft3D and Dflow-FM (unstructured grid) geomorphic modeling; 2) model the response...
The California Landscape Conservation Cooperative has offered numerous webinars and workshops over the years to deliver science and support to resource managers in California. This metadata collection describes some of the highlights.
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where each (invasive) species is likely to spread. The distribution maps are based on a new dataset created through a major campaign to collect expert opinion data from local resource managers across the state. From this dataset, Cal-IPC recently completed risk maps and management recommendations for 43 invasive plant species in the Sierra Nevada. The proposed project will build an online tool for these data. The tool will allow natural resource managers to generate risk maps and summary statistics for areas they select, and to determine...
This project helps the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) track gains and losses of key bird and waterfowl habitats at a landscape scale. This will allow the CVJV to effectively monitor and evaluate habitats essential to conservation planning for wildlife species. This work is important for identifying, assembling, and analyzing data for key habitats of concern and will provide a foundation for future monitoring.
Avian demographic response to climate change: a multi-species and multi-landscape approach to synthesizing risk factors.
This project researched the expected variation in avian demographic responses to environmental change across a gradient of species and landscapes from the San Francisco Bay to the Central Valley of California. We used two avian taxa, waterfowl and songbirds, as case studies for the integration of long-term demographic data with climate change variables. For each taxon, we assessed and synthesized several demographic responses to climate change variables (i.e., precipitation and temperature) to explore the relationship between four large-scale climate indices and bird species arrival dates and nest survival. A web-based application provides natural resource managers with project results.
This project is analyzing downscaled climate model data to assess the geography of climate change at scales relevant to actual conservation actions. This work analyzes the California Essential Habitat Connectivity products to determine which protected lands are most vulnerable and which of the proposed corridors would partially mitigate climate change threats.
Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Ecology and Habitats of Waterbirds in the Central Valley
Phases 1-3 (2010-2012): This project developed landscape change scenarios based upon water availability and precipitation and temperature patterns projected from downscaled models and investigated impacts of these changes on habitats and ecology of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds in the Central Valley. This project provides critical information and support to understand and incorporate likely impacts of climatic change in conservation planning. Science Delivery Phase (2013): The goal of this work is to work with the Central Valley Joint Ventures (CVJV) to adapt the scenario modeling project results and modeling tool so they can be used by the CVJV to incorporate climate, urbanization, and water supply...