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An online decision support tool for managers, planners, conservation practitioners and scientists.The models generating these maps are the first to take into account the ability of marshes to accrete, or keep up with, rising sea levels, in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.PRBO has generated a series of scenarios to provide a range of projections to address the uncertainty in future rates of sea-level rise and suspended sediment availability.Our maps cover the entire Estuary allowing for analyses at multiple spatial scales.This tool displays maps created at a high spatial resolution using the best available elevation data. The website will be continually updated as new data becomes availableThe tool is the first to...
Conservation priority maps based on combined bird species current and projected abundance and distribution, updated with new model with improved inputs.Point Blue Conservation Science is currently assessing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a “bathtub” model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation...
Priority areas for conservation of tidal marsh birds given current and future environmental conditions. Maps were created using Zonation, a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species and scenarios to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape.The current (2010) and future (2030-2110) prioritization is based upon distribution and abundance models for five tidal marsh bird species which utilized avian observation data (2000 - 2009), a marsh accretion model, and physical variables (e.g. salinity, distance to nearest channel, slope, etc). Values represent the rank in which pixels were removed from the landscape using Zonation Conservation Planning software with...
Marsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA using the Marsh-98 model, described here. The model assumes that rates of marsh plain elevation change depend on the availability of suspended sediment and organic material, water depth, and duration of inundation periods. If enough suspended sediment is available, then tidal marsh elevations can keep pace with increased inundation. Model outputs were linearly interpolated in 10-cm increments for starting elevations ranging from -3.7 to 1.7 m (relative to mean higher high water, or MHHW), and applied to a composite 5-m elevation grid (see below) for SF Bay. Results for each possible combination of projected sea level rise, sediment and organic material availability, and target...
Densities for five key tidal marsh-dependent bird species were modeled using boosted regression trees (Elith et al. 2008). The models are able to fit non-linear functions between environmental variables and the presence/absence or density of a species. Map values represent the probability of occurrence of a species or the density (birds/ha). Higher values in a map indicate a higher likelihood that a species will be present at a site. Bird species modeled: Common yellowthroat, black rail, clapper rail, marsh wren, song sparrow. Model outputs: Probably of occurrence, density (birds per hectare)
Maps of the probability of occurrence of tidal marsh plant species were created using generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani 1990). Species modeled: Saltgrass, alkali-heath, SF Bay gumplant, jaumea, wirerush, pepperweed, giant reed, pickleweed, hard-stem tule, three-square bullrush, smooth cordgrass, California cordgrass, cattail.
The Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes Climate Smart Planning Tool is a web application that enables the user to view and query maps made with projected tidal marsh elevations, vegetation changes, five tidal marsh-dependent bird species distribution probabilities and densities, and current and future conservation prioritization. The map-making tool presents the user with current and future maps side by side, and allows for choices of higher and lower levels of sea level rise, sediment availability, and organic material accumulation. The purpose for using the tool is to support an understanding of how sea level rise may change the extent of tidal marsh habitat and bird species distribution over the next 100 years,...
To be successful, natural resource managers need to synthesize diverse information on the effects of management actions, climate change and other stressors on wildlife populations at appropriate scales. The project team developed a Decision Support Tool (DST) that integrates the results of multi-disciplinary, multi-taxa modeling allowing users to project outcomes of conservation actions, accounting for effects of climate change and other stressors. This DST builds on work to improve a sea level rise tool for adaptive tidal wetland restoration and management. The DST provides information on how restoration can increase population resilience and long-term persistence at multiple scales for multiple species throughout...
Understanding San Francisco Bay’s vulnerabilities to sea level rise is important for both biodiversity conservation and for management of public infrastructure. Coastal marshes provide essential ecosystem services such as water filtration and flood abatement while also providing important habitat for species of conservation concern. Improving our understanding of how tidal marsh habitats will be affected by sea level rise is important so that we maximize ecosystem services that coastal marshes provide and ensure that endemic populations of plants and animals persist into the future. For this project, marsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA (http://www.pwa-ltd.com/index.html) using the Marsh-98 model, described here:...
Current and projected bird distribution and abundance layers, updated with new model that has better inputs. Point Blue Conservation Science assessed the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a “bathtub” model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation (related to salinity).Working with researchers at...