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Case Study: Integrated Scenarios and Outreach for Habitat Threat Assessments on California RangelandsWe developed six scenarios organized around our management question: How can we maintain viable ranchlands and their ecosystem services in light of future integrated threats? The scenarios represent alternative futures of climate/land use/hydrological change for the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (Rangeland Coalition) focus area (the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast Range) based on (a) consistent storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)5 and (b) downscaled global climate models (GCMs) that represent...
Kristin Byrd presented how this project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and will quantify two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents will develop integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminate information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (CRCC) study area, which includes the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast...
Change in the percentage of watershed area with critical habitat from 2010 to a future time period These maps display the change in the proportion of watershed area that contains critical habitat from 2010 to a future time period for three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Future time periods displayed include 2040, 2070 and 2100. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Critical habitat is defined as critical priority conservation areas mapped in the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition’s focus area map (http://www.carangeland.org/focusarea.html). Priority conservation areas were defined by The Nature Conservancy as privately-owned rangelands...
Percent change in grassland soil carbon sequestration potential. These maps display the percent change in the potential for grassland soil carbon sequestration for each watershed under three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Here soil carbon represents soil organic carbon (up to 20 cm in depth). Future change in soil carbon was modeled by the U.S. Geological Survey’s General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) (http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/land_carbon/BGM.asp). Carbon model outputs were produced through the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) national carbon sequestration assessment of ecosystem...
Raster datasets developed in the project Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands.This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project “Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands”.The project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and quantifying two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents developed integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland...
These interactive maps display results from a scenario analysis on the integrated effects of future land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition focus area (the California Central Valley and surrounding foothills). A three-map viewer allows users to view and compare results at the watershed scale across three scenarios simultaneously. Maps are available for the following metrics: 1) Change in the percentage of watershed area with critical habitat, 2) Percent change in grassland soil carbon sequestration potential, 3) Percent change in climatic water deficit relative to the 1981-2010 climate period, 4) Ratio of recharge to runoff for three 30-year...
Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning...
Average percent change in multiple ecosystem services from 2010 to 2040 These maps display the average percent change in three rangeland ecosystem services – total ecosystem carbon, critical habitat and water availability – from 2010 to 2040 for three IPCC-SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and two climate projections (warm, wet future and hot, dry future). Total ecosystem carbon is total carbon stored in vegetation and soils (up to 20 cm in depth), and was estimated annually from 2006 to 2050 by the U.S. Geological Survey’s General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) (http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/land_carbon/BGM.asp). See Percent change in total ecosystem carbon dataset page for model details. Critical...
When: May 29, 2014 1:00 - 3:30 PMWhere: Department of Water Resources, Large Conference Room, 2nd Floor, Bonderson Building, 901 P Street, Sacramento, CA 95814The project evaluates the effects of different climate change and land use change scenarios on ecosystem services (water availability, wildlife habitat and carbon sequestration) provided by rangelands in California. The project is a partnership between the USGS and Defenders of Wildlife and it is funded by the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative.More information, an online tool and associated data are available at http://climate.calcommons.org/aux/rangeland/index.html.A fact sheet with information about the project can be found at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3019/.
Percent change in climatic water deficit relative to the 1981-2010 climate period These maps display the average percent change in climatic water deficit (CWD) from the 1981-2010 climate period to a future climate period for each watershed. Percent change in CWD is provided for two climate projections for each of the three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Future time periods displayed include 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). CWD is defined as potential evapotranspiration minus actual evapotranspiration. This term effectively integrates the combined effects of solar radiation, evapotranspiration, and...
This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project “Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands”.The project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and quantifying two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents developed integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminated information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland...
Water-Wildlife Hotspots: Areas where changes in water availability (recharge plus runoff) and loss of critical habitat coincide. These maps display percent change in water availability relative to the 1981-2010 climate period where 5% or more of watershed area has lost critical habitat. Water availability is defined as recharge plus runoff. Critical habitat is defined as critical priority conservation areas mapped in the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition’s focus area map (http://www.carangeland.org/focusarea.html) (TNC, 2007). Percent change in water availability is provided for two climate projections for each of the three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Scenarios of critical habitat loss for years...
Dr. Frank Casey of the US Geological Survey discussed the challenges faced when attempting to value changes in ecosystem services in response to climate/land use change impacts on California rangelands.The presentation provides a brief overview of how an economics conceptual framework and tools can be used to value three ecosystem services that California rangelands provide:Carbon sequestrationWildlife habitatWater flow and quality The Alameda Creek watershed is selected as a case study example illustrating the challenges and opportunities in valuing changes in these services under two climate/land use change scenarios.
ContextIn addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture.ObjectivesTo understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.MethodsWe quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic...
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed future scenarios of land use-land cover (LULC) change in the United States as part of a national carbon sequestration assessment required by the U.S. Congress (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007). Future potential demand, or the area of land required for each LULC class, was based on a set of scenarios from three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. 2000): A2 (emphasizes economic development with a regional focus), A1B (emphasizes economic development with a global orientation), and B1 (emphasizes environmental sustainability with a global orientation). To develop LULC change scenarios...
The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these...
Why Rangelands: The Central Valley of California, the surrounding foothills and the interior Coast Range include over 18 million acres of grassland. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. Because grasslands are found in some of California’s fastest-growing counties, they are severely threatened by land conversion and development. In addition climate change stresses grasslands by potentially changing water availability and species distributions.Maintaining a ranching landscape can greatly support biodiversity conservation in the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) region. In addition ranches generate multiple ecosystem services—defined as human benefits provided...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...