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Environmental Change Network: Current and Future Zonation PrioritizationZonation is a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape. This is in contrast to other spatial conservation planning tools which may require predefined conservation targets or areas. Here, we used 199 California landbirds along with Zonation’s “core-area” algorithm to prioritize the California landscape. Species were weighted according to the California Bird Species of Special Concern criteria and probability of occurrence was discounted by distribution model and climate model uncertainty surfaces.The dataset provides priority areas for “current”...
This website offers results from the project “Impacts of climate change on ecology and habitats of waterbirds”, which evaluates projected impacts of climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios on ecology and habitats of waterfowl and other waterbirds in the Central Valley of California.The Central Valley (CVCA) of California contains some of the most important habitats for waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds in North America. Most waterbird habitats in the CVCA which include wetlands, flooded rice fields, and other agricultural lands, rely on managed surface water supplies stored in reservoirs and delivered via a complex, interconnected system to a wide array of competing water users. Downscaled...
Ducks Unlimited, Inc Introduction In addition to working with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center team led by Joe Fleskes on defining the feasibility and strategies for tracking a variety of key avian habitats in the Central Valley. Ducks Unlimited focused on mapping Central Valley rice habitats that provide large bioenergetic inputs to overwintering waterfowl and shorebirds in the region. The first year of the project characterized rice fields and their winter- flooded state in the Sacramento Valley. This report summarizes our findings and reviews our future plans to quantify foraging habitats in the Central Valley .
These maps display the magnitude of projected future climate change in relation to the interannual variability in late 20th century CA climate. The maps show the standardized Euclidean distance between the late 20th century climate at each pixel and the future climate at each pixel. The standardization puts all of the climate variables included on the same scale and down weights changes in future climate which have had large year to year variation historically. Warmer colors indicate greater climate change and cooler colors indicate less extreme climate change.
Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
CVJV Implementation Plan chapter and/or chapter sections incorporating results of scenario modeling and description of method to follow to evaluate potential impacts to water supplies and habitats of future proposed changes to water supply management.
This business plan provides the rationale for developing an Environmental Change Network for the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative. This plan will illustrate important potential uses of the network and its data and show how these uses will increase the efficiency and efficacy of adaptation planning and implementation efforts. We will demonstrate how the value of the network will be greater if implemented sooner. We also show how the proposed network will integrate with larger scale efforts currently ongoing at the national level and how it can also inform smaller scale efforts at local levels. The specific objectives of this business plan are to:• Provide a rational for the further development and implementation...
Full Title: Environmental Change Network: Current and Projected VegetationThe current vegetation layer is derived from the vegetation map developed as part of the California Gap Analysis project. The derivation takes the California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR) habitat classification provided in the California Gap Analysis layer, generalizes the classes to a set of broader habitat types, and rasterizes it at 800 meter resolution.The future vegetation layers for both the GFDL and CCSM GCM models are derived using a random forest model of the vegetation classification. The original CWHR classification has been generalized to 12 classes for ease in modeling. Inputs to the model include eight bioclimatic variables...
This update describes the project’s background and summarizes progress and data produced.Most waterfowl habitats in the Central Valley of California rely on managed surface water supplies stored in reservoirs and delivered via a complex system to a wide array of competing water users. Water supplies vary with snow pack, temperature, and precipitation, all of which are projected to change substantially under some global climate models; land use and water management decisions also greatly impact water supplies. Led by USGS - Western Ecological Research Center , this multi - partner project ( California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, USFWS, CVJV, California Dept. of Fish and Game, Ducks Unlimited, Delta Waterfowl,...
The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying...
The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area...
This website provides information on the project’s effort to establish a network of environmental monitoring stations within the boundaries of the California LCC. Users of this web portal can view predicted distributional changes in landbird, habitat, and climate under future climate conditions and find out general information on the progress and evolution of the network.
Metrics used to evaluate scenario impacts and success of proposed conservation actions were provided in datasets for specific Central Valley basins. Metrics included the amount of projected available habitat area (and loss of area) across years, and resulting impacts of habitat reduction on goal waterbird populations. Metrics evaluating success of proposed habitat conservation actions primarily focused on adequacy of food supplies to support wintering waterfowl at CVJV-goal population levels. Metrics were provided for each scenario evaluated in WEAP-CVwh.
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
The development of sophisticated species distribution modeling techniques provides an opportunity to examine the potential effects of climate change on bird communities. Using these modeling approaches, we are relating bird data to environmental layers to generate robust predictions of current (1971–2000) and projected future species occurrence. Future bird distributions are based on regional climate model projections for the periods 2038–2070 (IPCC Scenario A2). Bird species distributions were created using the Maxent modeling technique: Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006), which is able to model non-linear responses to environmental variables. Map values represent the predicted habitat suitability; the higher the values,...
This project helps the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) track gains and losses of key bird and waterfowl habitats at a landscape scale. This will allow the CVJV to effectively monitor and evaluate habitats essential to conservation planning for wildlife species. This work is important for identifying, assembling, and analyzing data for key habitats of concern and will provide a foundation for future monitoring.
Empirical evidence supports wild birds as playing a role in the interhemispheric exchange of bacteriaand viruses; however, data supporting the redistribution of parasites among continents are limited. Inthis study, the hypothesis that migratory birds contribute to the redistribution of parasites between continentswas tested by sampling northern pintails (Anas acuta) at locations throughout the North PacificBasin in North America and East Asia for haemosporidian infections and assessing the genetic evidencefor parasite exchange. Of 878 samples collected from birds in Alaska (USA), California (USA), and Hokkaido(Japan) during August 2011–May 2012 and screened for parasitic infections using moleculartechniques, Leucocytozoon,...
The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area...
Birds of the order Anseriformes, commonly referred to as waterfowl, are frequently infected by Haemosporidia of the genera Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, and Leucocytozoon via dipteran vectors. We analyzed nucleotide sequences of the Cytochrome b (Cytb) gene from parasites of these genera detected in six species of ducks from Alaska and California, USA to characterize the genetic diversity of Haemosporidia infecting waterfowl at two ends of the Pacific Americas Flyway. In addition, parasite Cytb sequences were compared to those available on a public database to investigate specificity of genetic lineages to hosts of the order Anseriformes. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity of Haemoproteus Cytb sequences was lower than...
Species richness indicates the number of different species predicted to be able to occur at a location. Maps show the projected species richness under current climate and two models of future climate conditions. Species richness is calculated by converting the predictions from maxent models into binary maps of presence and absence and summing the maps across all species. Higher values in the maps indicate where more bird species are projected to be able to occur.