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Streamflow disaggregation techniques are used to distribute a single aggregate flow value to multiple sites in both space and time while preserving distributional statistics (i.e., mean, variance, skewness, and maximum and minimum values) from observed data. A number of techniques exist for accomplishing this task through a variety of parametric and nonparametric approaches. However, most of these methods do not perform well for disaggregation to daily time scales. This is generally due to a mismatch between the parametric distributions appropriate for daily flows versus monthly or annual flows, the high dimension of the disaggregation problem, compounded uncertainty in parameter estimation for multistage approaches,...
Climatic fluctuations have profound effects on water resources variability in the western United States. The effects are manifested in several ways and scales particularly in the occurrence, frequency, and magnitude of extreme events. The project reported herein centers on streamflow predictability at the medium and long range scales in the headwaters of the Colorado River that originates in the State of Colorado. Specifically, we want to improve the capability of forecasting seasonal and yearly flows. The study includes the seasonal and yearly streamflows in the Yampa, Gunnison, and San Juan rivers. For comparison three rivers that drain to the Gulf of Mexico are also included, namely Poudre, Arkansas, and Rio...
Population growth and a changing climate will tax the future reliability of the Colorado River water supply. Using a heuristic model, we assess the annual risk to the Colorado River water supply for 2008–2057. Projected demand growth superimposed upon historical climate variability results in only a small probability of annual reservoir depletion through 2057. In contrast, a scenario of 20% reduction in the annual Colorado River flow due to climate change by 2057 results in a near tenfold increase in the probability of annual reservoir depletion by 2057. However, our analysis suggests that flexibility in current management practices could mitigate some of the increased risk due to climate change–induced reductions...