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We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands that are managed for timber production. Regional outbreaks of SPB occur in bursts resulting in elimination of entire stands and major economic loss. These outbreaks are often interspersed with decades of inactivity, making long-term modeling of SPB dynamics challenging. Forest management techniques, including thinning, have proven effective and are often recommended...
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Amphibians are vulnerable to extinction owing, partly, to altered physiological processes induced by projected global warming and drying. Understanding the mechanisms behind their responses is essential to formulate adaptation strategies for their conservation. Puerto Rico harbors 15 endemic Eleutherodactylus frogs considered vulnerable to extinction due to poor vagility and sensitivity to environmental variability. Herein are reported the effects of four temperature treatments (15, 20, 25, and 30 degrees Centigrade) on metabolic rates associated with specific dynamic action (SDA) and standard metabolic rates (SMR) of four representative species of Eleutherodactylus employing a respirometer. All species in either...
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Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade, the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center has invested in several scientific investigations to understand how global climate change is likely to affect the local climate of the US Caribbean and how sensitive different coquí species are to changes in local climate and habitat conditions in Puerto Rico. This project...
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This dataset represents the extent of urbanization (for the year indicated) predicted by the model SLEUTH, developed by Dr. Keith C. Clarke, at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Geography and modified by David I. Donato of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Eastern Geographic Science Center (EGSC). Further model modification and implementation was performed at the Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center at North Carolina State University. Purpose: Urban growth probability extents throughout the 21st century for the Southeast Regional Assessment Project, which encompasses the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee...
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
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Coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) provide a myriad of beneficial services, including buffering storm surge, improving water quality, supporting commercial fisheries, and providing habitat for imperiled wildlife and plants. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the goods and services provided by NWRs and pose decision-making challenges for refuge managers. The purpose of this project was to explore how structured decision-making – a formal, systematic method for analyzing decisions – could help NWR staff make informed...
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for wildlife and plants, water quality, and recreation opportunities. As climate changes, a better understanding of how our ecosystems will be affected is vital for identifying strategies to protect these ecosystems. We assessed climate change vulnerability for twelve ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean. We synthesized data and literature related to three components of vulnerability: climate sensitivity, climate change exposure, and adaptive capacity. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem. Based on the available information, we identified...
Abstract (from WileyOnline): Compared to non-urban environments, cities host ecological communities with altered taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition. However, we know little about how these urban changes take shape over time. Using historical bee (Apoidea: Anthophila) museum specimens supplemented with online repositories and researcher collections, we investigated whether bee species richness tracked urban and human population growth over the past 118 years. We also determined which species were no longer collected, whether those species shared certain traits, and if collector behavior changed over time. We focused on Wake County, North Carolina, United States where human population size has increased...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date and state-of-the-art downscaled climate projections for the U.S., using a range of plausible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Second, a series of workshops were held to solicit input about climate-related data needs and to discuss best practices for accessing and using downscaled climate projections....
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The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change vulnerability of 12 key ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean, ranging from Caribbean coastal mangrove to Nashville Basin limestone glade and woodland. Scientists used the existing scientific literature and geospatial analysis to determine each ecosystem’s sensitivity to changes in climate, its exposure level to...
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Translocating individuals of Eleutherodactylus frogs to alternative, suitable habitat is an adaptation strategy designed to minimize the impact of projected warming and drying in Puerto Rico. The action increases species persistence by increasing spatial redundancy, but it could also be used to supplement extant populations. We released 34 Eleutherodactylus coqui to determine initial, post-release survival under two treatments – non-translocated (N = 14), and translocated (N=20) to a different location 0.8 km away, but sharing similar habitat and environmental conditions. We defined “initial” as the first 17 days post-release, a period where we hypothesized that translocated individuals would have lower survival...
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We determined the critical thermal maximum (CTMax) of six species of Eleutherodactylus frogs (Eleutherodactylus antillensis, Eleutherodactylus brittoni, Eleutherodactylus cochranae, Eleutherodactylus coqui, Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi, Eleutherodactylus wightmanae) to understand their response to warming temperatures. Data consist of capture history, body condition, and temperature at which the frog exhibited spasms and erratic behavior, which may impair predator avoidance. Our results underscored the potential vulnerability of Eleutherodactylus species exhibiting lower CTMax to the forecasted warming of tropical zones (e.g., E. wightmanae, E. brittoni).
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
    map background search result map search result map Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Data set for Developing Long-term Urbanization Scenarios for the Caribbean LCC as Part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species Local demographic rates and Critical Thermal Maximum (CTMax) values of four Eleutherodactylus frogs in Puerto Rico, 2021-2022 Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean Post-release survival of translocated Eleutherodactylus coqui in Puerto Rico Physiological Analysis of Eleutherodactylus Specimens in West-Central Puerto Rico, 2021-2022 Post-release survival of translocated Eleutherodactylus coqui in Puerto Rico Physiological Analysis of Eleutherodactylus Specimens in West-Central Puerto Rico, 2021-2022 Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts Data set for Developing Long-term Urbanization Scenarios for the Caribbean LCC as Part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data