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The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project integrated existing models of vegetation, disturbance, and permafrost into one complete ecosystem model for the state of Alaska and Northwest Canada.The final synchronized model will integrate existing climate, vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost models to improve understanding of potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change. The project’s (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016) primary goal was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada....
The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
Bering Sea storms introduce various environmental conditions that adversely affect human activity and infrastructure in the coastal zone and the ecosystems they depend upon. Storm impacts include interactions with sea ice in all potential states: large floes, shore-fast ice, and incipient sea-ice in frazil or slush state. In particular, sea ice can act to enhance or mitigate the impacts of adverse marine state, even as the event is occurring. Such occurrences should be part of a forecasting regimen, however scientific work has not been conducted on this phenomena, with the result that a physical model describing the formation of slush ice berms does not exist. To arrive at such a model requires visits to and input...
Water temperature in lakes and lagoons plays a key role in hydrology, water quality, and habitat suitability for aquatic organisms. The purpose of this project is to provide land and resource managers with information related to the past, present, and future temperature trends in lake surface waters in western Alaska. Through a combination of remote sensing, in situ data collection, model development, we will analyze similarities and differences related to spatial and temporal patterns of lake surface temperatures in western Alaska from 1985 to 2100. ​
Western Alaska is one of the fastest warming regions on the globe and recent trends are expected to continue into the next century, likely having substantial effects on the aquatic resources of this region. While increased air temperatures will have direct effects on water temperatures, indirect effects due to changes in precipitation, groundwater characteristics, and flow regimes may have much larger effects on aquatic ecosystems. Coastal watersheds of Western Alaska are expected to receive 25-50% more snow and 18-25% more rain in the next century. Future “climate warming” may actually cool some streams if the ratio of snow to rain increases for coastal watersheds, while rain-dominated streams are likely to become...
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This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: DELTAS, DELTAS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, Decision Support, All tags...
Water temperature plays a critical role in the health of pre-smolt salmon life stages, and changes in water temperature may be a strong driving factor on growth and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon. Climate is expected to warm substantially in the coming decades in western Alaska, potentially affecting juvenile salmon condition in freshwater habitats. This project investigates the variability in size-at-age and annual growth for juvenile Chinook salmon across the western Alaska landscape, the association of juvenile Chinook size-at-age or annual growth with spatial or temporal stream temperature gradients, and whether expected water temperature changes in western Alaska will affect juvenile Chinook salmon habitat...
The project will complete an extensive mapping of coastal change along the entire coastline of the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). The work will provide important baseline information on the distribution and magnitude of landscape changes over the past 41 years. The extent of change to the coastline and to coastal features, such as spits, barrier islands, estuaries, tidal guts and lagoons, is known to be substantial in some areas along the coast (e.g., portions of the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta), although the extent of change along the full Bering Sea coast is not well documented. With this analysis, changes can be summarized for different land ownerships or other units to assess the extent of...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: BARRIER ISLANDS, BARRIER ISLANDS, COASTAL LANDFORMS/PROCESSES, COASTAL LANDFORMS/PROCESSES, DEGRADATION, All tags...
Understanding the causes of relative sea level rise requires knowledge of changes to both land (uplift and subsidence) and sea level. However, measurements of coastal uplift or subsidence are almost completely lacking in western Alaska. This project will result in precision measurements of prioritized benchmarks across the Western Alaska geography. This will improve the network of published tidal benchmark elevations, allowing for tidal datum conversion in more places, and providing a necessary component for improved inundation studies in coastal communities and low-lying areas.
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The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is supporting a field effort in support of a ShoreZone mapping project along the Chukchi and Beaufort coasts. Funds from the LCC will allow for the inclusion of three additional ShoreStations. Researchers will conduct ground surveys to get detailed physical and biological measurements throughout the various and often unique Chukchi and Beaufort coastal habitats. Sediment samples will be archived from each shore station for hydrocarbon analyses in the event of a local or regional oil spill. The Arctic ShoreZone Shore Stations will be added to the statewide database and made available online to the public NOAA website.
Permafrost thaw can be a major driver of landscape change. Regions in Western Alaska are highly vulnerable to such thawing due to the high ice content of the soils and the lack of thermal monitoring in this region has limited our ability to understand current thermal state and establish thawing rates. This study established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing...
This project uses previously collected ShoreZone imagery to map nearly 1,600 km of coastline between Wales and Kotzebue. With additional mapping supported by the Arctic LCC and National Park Service, this effort will complete the Kotzebue Sound shoreline, which will be included in the state-wide ShoreZone dataset. The complete ShoreZone dataset will be used to conduct a coastal hazards analysis and create maps that identify areas undergoing rapid coastal erosion and areas that are sensitive to inundation by storm surge and sea level rise.​
This project is focused on establishing a statewide framework to improve the hydrography mapping and stewardship in Alaska. This will be acheived through the creation of a statewide system to make digital mapping data updates accessible and affordable, and through the creation of a statewide hydrography mapping coordinator position to synchronize updates and guide hydrography mapping development. This framework will allow agencies and organizations to greatly improve their hydrography mapping data, as well as consume and uplift project level hydrography data that would not otherwise be incorporated.
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
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Viable sockeye salmon populations are critical to the economy, culture, and freshwater ecosystems of Bristol Bay in Western Alaska, and it is unclear how populations might respond to warming temperatures during the critical life history stages of spawning and embryo incubation. The overarching goal of the project is to understand how temperature might influence population-specific patterns of embryo incubation, timing of hatching and fry emergence, and sockeye salmon embryo survival. By combining analyses of data from two large lake systems in the Kvichak watershed, laboratory rearing experiments to elucidate functional relationships, and simulation modeling, this project quantifies biological responses to changing...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DATA REFORMATTING, DATA REFORMATTING, All tags...
This project will fund travel for face to face meetings with stakeholders (State and Federal agencies and Subsistence resource users) of the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (WALCC) in regard to a scientific modelling project. The modelling seeks to project the effects of climate on available forage for moose and caribou, as modified by snow cover and fire regimes, through 2100. The face to face meetings will present the goals and objectives of the modelling effort, seek identification of areas of particular concern for managers and subsistence users, and seek input on additional objectives that may be addressed by the project. At the completion of the project, there will be a second set of face...


map background search result map search result map Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Landscape-scale analysis of the relationship between juvenile Chinook size and growth and stream temperature in western Alaska (Feasibility Study) Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Temperature, phenology, and embryo survival in western Alaska sockeye salmon population: the potential for adaptation to a warming world? Watershed control of hydrologic sources and thermal conditions in SW Alaska streams: a framework for forecasting effects of changing climate Bringing Alaska's Freshwater Hydrography into the 21st Century Development and Application of an Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska ShoreZone Program on the North Slope of Alaska The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Temperature, phenology, and embryo survival in western Alaska sockeye salmon population: the potential for adaptation to a warming world? ShoreZone Program on the North Slope of Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada