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Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S. Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Climate-resilient, Conservation, Landscapes, Open-canopy longleaf, Other Landscapes, All tags... South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Southeast CASC, State-and-transition simulation model, Urban growth, Fewer tags Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1): The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Southeast CASC Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature wereestimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Conservation NGOs, Conservation NGOs, Conservation planning, Conservation planning, Federal resource managers, All tags... Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, Informing Conservation Delivery, Interested public, Interested public, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Publication, Publication, State agencies, State agencies, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, completed, environment, environment, environment, publication, Fewer tags Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Birds, Land cover change, Mammals, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, All tags... South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Southeast CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, avian distributions, Fewer tags THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING LAND COVER ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATION IN PUERTO RICO This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Conservation NGOs, Conservation planning, Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, Interested public, All tags... LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, Publication, State agencies, completed, environment, environment, inlandWaters, inlandWaters, Fewer tags The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S. Abstract (from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0102261): The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Ecosystems, Habitats, Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Population Density, All tags... South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Southeast CASC, simulation and modeling, urban areas, urban ecology, wetlands, Fewer tags