This project assessed the potential effects of climate change on tidal marsh habitats and bird populations, identified priority sites for tidal marsh conservation and restoration, and developed a web-based mapping tool for managers to interactively display and query results. Project results can be found at PRBO’s San Francisco Bay Sea-Level Rise Website
Summary Conduct an objective assessment of the existing programs monitoring climate-sensitive ecological variables (biological and geophysical) in the terrestrial Hawaiian environment, generate a summary for consideration at an expert workshop, participate in the workshop, and summarize the consensus recommendations reached at the workshop.
Current and Future Distribution and Abundance of North Pacific Birds in the Context of Climate Change
This project acquired, federated and curated approximately one million new observations to the Avian Knowledge Network. These new observations, in addition to millions of existing records, were used to model the distribution and abundance of 26 species of land birds in the southern portion of the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) region including CA, OR and WA. The models were based on climate and modeled vegetation.Using the models, maps were created showing the distribution and abundance of each species for current (late 20th century) conditions and projected the models to future conditions (2070) based on five regional climate models. The bird models were also used to create maps of conservation...
Using scenario planning to support climate-smart adaptation for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project: A case study for making science accessible to managers
This project uses existing decision support tools (DST) in a scenario planning analysis for the South Bay Salt Ponds Restoration Project (SBSPRP) as a case study that other bayland managers can reference for best practices for using these DSTs for adaptation planning. Through substantial investment by the CA LCC and other partners, we have developed a set of DSTs that support conservation decision-making for San Francisco Estuary ecosystems (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr (link is external) and (link is external)). These tools are ideally suited to support climate-smart restoration planning for shorebird and marshbird habitat. However, the utility of these tools could be promoted through their application in an actual case...
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.
Most natural resource managers, planners and policy makers are now dependent upon spatially explicit environmental suitability and spatial allocation analyses to inform policy and management decisions. However, staff across agencies has been unable to stay current on understanding and applying these new data, tools and analyses. Currently, this information may be underutilized or used inappropriately, which could result in poor decisions. Two training curricula were developed – one for managers and one for GIS analysts – on current best practices for developing and using spatial information to support conservation decision making. The training materials are open-source and widely distributed to California LCC stakeholders.
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...