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The use of biomass crops as an energy source is frequently mentioned as an option to reduce CO 2 emissions. To evaluate the possibilities reliable yield estimates of biomass crops are required. In this paper a simple method is developed to estimate regional yields of various biomass crops, based on the linear relation between intercepted light and biomass production. The quality of the estimates was studied by using the method to estimate yields of several agricultural crops in two regions in The Netherlands. In general a deviation of less than 10 % was found between actual and estimated average yield.
In this paper part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. The investigation included the interaction with biogeochemical cycles, the effects of clouds and aerosols, ice flow instability, albedo instability and modified ocean circulation. In this paper our results for clouds and aerosols and for biogeochemical cycles are reported.
This report presents an overview and assessment of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Assessment, Risk analysis, report
This article describes the development of an energy accounting. This is a management tool to give farmers a clear understanding of their energy use and of the emission of greenhouse gases on their farm. Results are given of one year accounting on dairy farms and on pig farms. The results show large differences in energy use and in emissions of greenhouse gases between individual farms. These differences indicate that a substantial reduction of emission of greenhouse gasses is possible.
The current project is aimed at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models.
In the projects fostered by the NRP the effects of changed climate (atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature) on different terrestrial ecosystems were studied. For forests it was concluded that the initial stimulation of tree growth in general did not persist after two years, and therefore care must be taken not to overestimate the potential contribution of increased carbon sequestration by forests. On the other hand, shifted patterns of carbon distribution in the tree-soil system may lead to a higher soil organic matter content, which will contribute to an improved soil structure and availability of soil moisture. A sensitivity analysis revealed that, for the poor sandy forest soils, improved rooting depth is...
The relevance of econometric studies of ownership and use of private cars for environmental issues is sketched and some recent results are reviewed.
Our empirical material based on interviews with influental actors in environmental policy in Finland suggested that possible future climatic changes illustrates the greatest single environmental threat on a global scale. The influential actors did not hesitate to consider as an issue of high certainty a kind of man-induced climate change. In mapping out social resources among actors to tackle climatic risks we have utilizised a teleological reasoning of rational action as an ideal model.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Climate change, environment, life
This article reflects the results of a study on sustainability of energy crops. Contribution to the reduction of the greenhouse effect and other environmental effects were investigated for the Netherlands. The study assumed that energy crops are grown on set aside or grain land. Generating electricity and/or heat from hemp, reed, miscanthus, poplar and willow have the best prospects. These crops are sustainable and may in the future be economically feasible. Ethanol from winter wheat has the most favourable environmental effects, but is economically not interesting. Liquid fuels from oil seed rape and sugar beet are not very sustainable.
Yields of winter wheat, silage maize and grain maize in the main arable areas of the European Union (E.U.) were calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined.Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO 2. The impact of crop management in a changed climate was also assessed. The various climate change scenarios used appear to yield considerably different changes in yield, both for each location and for the E.U. as a whole.
Research performed at the AB-DLO and the Free University was intended to quantify the effects of a doubled CO2 concentration on some key agronomic species and grasslands. A set of physiological and morphological processes was studied and related to above- and below ground cycling of carbon. The research was based on experiments and simulation studies at the level of plant, crop and soil in laboratory facilities and semi-field conditions with controlled CO2 supply. Agricultural crops were grown in "Open Top Chambers" or greenhouses and grasses in transparent tunnels made of Lexan. Soil processes and root respiration were studied in the Wageningen Rhizolab. Photosynthesis and assimilate partitioning were measured...
SILMU, which runs from 1990 to 1995, aims at studying climate change and its impacts. It also seeks to provide information to Finnish policy makers on adaptation and mitigation. The topics range from air chemisrty to sociology, and the total number of projects is 74. Interim evaluation of the programme was carded out in 1992. During the second half of SILMU, 10 % of the total budget (total: 14 Million ECU) has been devoted to programme integration.
Climate change influences the water balance of drainage basins in several ways. In a project of the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin the possible consequences for the discharge regime of the Rhine are investigated. In the first phase of this project detailed models have been developed and applied for selected sub-basins and a simple water balance model has been developed for the whole Rhine basin. Results are presented for climate scenarios assuming an increase in temperature of about 3~ and an increase in annual precipitation. The consequences of such a climate change are largest in the Alpine part of the Rhine basin, and are also considerable in other parts of the basin and for the...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: History, energy, prices
The aim of the Lifestyle project is to analyse the CO 2 emission reduction potential of lifestyle change. The analysis is carried out by examining the direct and the indirect energy contents of the average Dutch household consumption. An overview of the past developments of Dutch sector energy intensities is produced and its consequences for the average household energy requirement are studied. Also differences in energy requirement related to differences in lifestyle are assessed. Calculations of the Dutch household expenditure survey has resulted in an overview of the energy requirement per income and spending subcategory. The correlations between some relevant household factors are determined and discussed.
Many people believe that 'sustainable solutions' to global air pollution and climate change should include significant changes in human consumption and lifestyles. Under this heading six different NRP projects have been conducted. This chapter gives a review and assessment of these projects, supplemented with discussions of related research. The paper starts with a general statement of the environmental problem of household metabolism as a key component of the socio-economic production- consumption cycle. It summarises and comments upon nine different (sub)projects. And it ends with general observations, conclusions and suggestions for research and policy in relation to sustainable consumption patterns. Conceptual...
The possible impacts of a climatic change associated with an increase in CO2 on the hydrology of forests is evaluated by applying sensitivity analysis and a climatic scenario to a one-dimensional model. Water consumption of forests is affected by changes in plant physiology and meteorological environment. Changes in species composition are not taken into account. Increase in CO2 leads to a decrease of stomatal conductance, resulting in a decrease in transpiration of 10-30%. The evaporation of rainfall interception by the canopy is increased due to a higher leaf area index and higher temperatures. Application of a wet scenario shows an increase in total interception, but the ratio between interception and precipitation...
This paper analyzes the determinants and barriers of energy conservation investment behaviour. A number of barriers were found in a literature survey. A three-phase investment model on the micro level was constructed. Hypotheses derived from the model were empirically tested by analyzing a survey of more than 300 Dutch Firms. Economic variables seem to determine investment behaviour to a large extent.
Eight major industrial processes areresponsible for over 50% of industrial energy consumption in most countries. The energy efficiency of these processes was determined in a number of countries, with appropriate corrections for structural differences between countries. It is shown that considerable differences occur between countries, but that manufacturing industry in Eastern Europe in general is less efficient than in EU countries. In all cases efficiency is worse than what is technically and economically feasible. International comparisons provide information on energy efficiency differences, insight into technological differences between countries and into costs requirements for efficiency improvements. The...
The project Socio-economic aspects o f the greenhouse effect: Climate f u n d studies the impact of international capital transfers on the efficiency and efficacy of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The absolute costs of emission abatement is substantially lower in less developed countries. The associated reduction of the damage due to conventional air pollution is higher in the richer countries in both absolute and relative terms. The costs of climatic change are relatively higher (but absolute lower) in the developing countries. Prime impacts are on agriculture (in the developing world) and human health (highly valued in the developed world). Costs of emission reduction and climatic change are joined in a nine...
Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP, that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders.