Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > North Central CASC > FY 2013 Projects > Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species? ( Show direct descendants )
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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___North Central CASC ____FY 2013 Projects _____Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species? Filters
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Abstract (from Diversity and Distributions): Aim Surrogate species can provide an efficient mechanism for biodiversity conservation if they encompass the needs or indicate the status of a broader set of species. When species that are the focus of ongoing management efforts act as effective surrogates for other species, these incidental surrogacy benefits lead to additional efficiency. Assessing surrogate relationships often relies on grouping species by distributional patterns or by species traits, but there are few approaches for integrating outputs from multiple methods into summaries of surrogate relationships that can inform decisionāmaking. Location Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Methods...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
North Central CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wetlands,
Wildlife and Plants
Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Climate Change,
Decision Support Systems,
Modeling,
North Central CASC,
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the northern Great Plains contains millions of wetlands that provide habitat for breeding and migrating birds. Although conservation and management largely focuses on protecting habitat for nesting ducks, other wetland-dependent birds also rely on this region. Land managers want to know whether habitat conserved for ducks provides habitat for other species and how these habitats will be affected by climate change. A primary goal of this research has been to assist managers in conserving areas that will provide habitat to a broad suite of species. We considered how climate change is likely to affect land-use patterns and agricultural conversion risk. We then predicted how climate...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
Great Plains,
North Central CASC,
Prairie Pothole,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Abstract from Ecosphere: The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Birds,
North Central CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wetlands,
Wildlife and Plants
These data were used to estimate models relating climate and land cover to wetland densities and develop projections under climate and land use change. Data for model estimation were derived from historical climate data, estimates of hydrological processes based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, National Wetlands Inventory, and the National Land Cover Database. Wetland densities were based on observations from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Projected climate conditions were derived from ten Global Climate Models, and projected changes in land use were based on an economic model of the effects of climate on land use transitions. These data support the following publication: Sofaer,...
Categories: Data;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Montana,
North Central CASC,
North Dakota,
Plants,
Prairie Pothole Region,
The purpose of this project was to estimate and map the probability that grassland converts to cropland in the northern plains and prairie region given potential climate change. This region provides critical breeding and migratory habitat for waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species, and is also a highly productive agricultural region. Generally, the regional effects projected by climate models are increasing temperatures and more variable precipitation, which could provide incentives for private landowners to convert native and managed grassland to intensive cropland. Conversion of grassland to cropland can result in habitat loss for dependent species and the degradation of a range of ecosystem services. If...
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