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The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: DELTAS, DELTAS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, Decision Support, All tags...
Water temperature plays a critical role in the health of pre-smolt salmon life stages, and changes in water temperature may be a strong driving factor on growth and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon. Climate is expected to warm substantially in the coming decades in western Alaska, potentially affecting juvenile salmon condition in freshwater habitats. This project investigates the variability in size-at-age and annual growth for juvenile Chinook salmon across the western Alaska landscape, the association of juvenile Chinook size-at-age or annual growth with spatial or temporal stream temperature gradients, and whether expected water temperature changes in western Alaska will affect juvenile Chinook salmon habitat...
The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
Viable sockeye salmon populations are critical to the economy, culture, and freshwater ecosystems of Bristol Bay in Western Alaska, and it is unclear how populations might respond to warming temperatures during the critical life history stages of spawning and embryo incubation. The overarching goal of the project is to understand how temperature might influence population-specific patterns of embryo incubation, timing of hatching and fry emergence, and sockeye salmon embryo survival. By combining analyses of data from two large lake systems in the Kvichak watershed, laboratory rearing experiments to elucidate functional relationships, and simulation modeling, this project quantifies biological responses to changing...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DATA REFORMATTING, DATA REFORMATTING, All tags...
To assess the vulnerability of a region to invasive plants, documentation of the presence or absence of invasive plants is necessary. This project expands on work initiated by the EPA to identify invasive plants in rural communities in the Bristol Bay region. Between the two efforts, 26 villages will be inventoried for invasive plant species; this will provide both an essential baseline for understanding the potential impact from these plants and the opportunity to treat the existing populations before they invade new areas. The second part of the project will use these data to assess the vulnerability of important subsistence plants (blueberry and low-bush cranberry) to changes in pollination, as key insect species...
Concern about invasive species in Alaska is a growing concern, attracting attention from land managers, politicians and the public. Nearly half the new discoveries of invasive plants, animals, and insects in the state are reported by concerned individuals with a general interest in invasive species. The development of a mobile application for invasive plant identification and reporting will help enable the public to gather and share new invasive plant discoveries. This project will result in the development of a decision tool for identifying non-natives plant species, which will provide the foundation for the app. Project staff will also review user-submitted requests for identification assistance, review app-generated...
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Caribou are an important source of food for residents of western Alaska, but as environmental conditions and migration patterns change, some local hunters have encountered difficulty accessing the Mulchatna caribou herd (MCH). Existing data describe MCH harvests, herd movements, and caribou abundance through time, but an investigation drawing from traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) has not occurred. This project will integrate TEK with existing knowledge of caribou movements and subsistence harvests. Targeted stakeholders include local tribes, including Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), local village councils, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (LCNP), and...
We propose to develop a Yukon-Kuskokwim Berry Outlook: a data- and observer-driven ecological monitoring and modeling framework that forecasts changes in berry habitat and abundance with climate and environmental change. Berry-producing plants are extremely important to human and wildlife communities of the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta. Berry yield can be influenced by snow cover, rainfall, soil moisture, air temperature, availability of insect pollinators, and seasonal weather extremes; and berry habitat can be altered by more frequent tidal inundation, increased frequency of storm surges, and permafrost deterioration, all of which may be significantly impacted by climate change. In a recent survey of Alaskan environmental...
This project will produce an existing vegetation type map at 30m resolution for the entire Western Alaska LCC region. The lack of a consistently mapped vegetation data layer for Alaska has been identified as a primary road block for many conservation and management entities across the state. This project will address a number of the LCC conservation goals by addressing a baseline science need that is the foundation for current and future project within the region.
Lack of complete snow cover for the past 3 winters in southwestern Alaska has forced agencies to postpone moose surveys due to the likelihood of underestimating the population/lack of comparability to previous surveys. Poor snow conditions lower the sightability of moose, yet, for most regions of Alaska, the variation in moose sightability during suboptimal conditions has not yet been quantified. Because scientists are predicting less snowfall in this region over the long term, we initiated research to estimate sightability correction factors (SCF_c) using radiocollared animals to apply to abundance estimates obtained via the GeoSpatial Population Estimator (GSPE) method. The Project Goal is to develop a model that...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2016, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, All tags...
The purpose of the research is to develop a storm surge model for the YK Delta area and to apply it to determine biological impacts of storm surges in the current and future climates. This research is needed as storm surges are expected to be more frequent and more severe in the YK Delta area due to climate change and sea level rise. The biological impacts in the YK Delta due to the changed storm surges could be extreme. With the model, we will study 10 storms over the 1980 – 2011 time period. Model output will be used to determine the recurrence interval for the individual storms. With the model output from individual storms, an inundation index (time-integral of water level during a storm) will be calculated....
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, Academics & scientific researchers, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, All tags...
This project supports the technical development of a mobile application for identifying and reporting invasive plant species in Alaska. It will result in a portable, digital version of a field guide that can be easily updated and that supports integration of reports into the Alaska Exotic Plants Information Clearinghouse (AKEPIC). Under development for both Android and iOS operating systems, the app has the potential to increase the public’s knowledge of invasive plants, as well an improve opportunities for reporting new occurrences. See also project WA2014_33.


    map background search result map search result map Traditional ecological knowledge of Mulchatna Caribou Herd phenology, habitat change, subsistence use, and related species interactions Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Landscape-scale analysis of the relationship between juvenile Chinook size and growth and stream temperature in western Alaska (Feasibility Study) Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Alaska invasive plant identification and record input smartphone app Temperature, phenology, and embryo survival in western Alaska sockeye salmon population: the potential for adaptation to a warming world? Storm Surge Impacts on Biological Resources in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Invasive plant identification and record input smartphone app for western Alaska The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Temperature, phenology, and embryo survival in western Alaska sockeye salmon population: the potential for adaptation to a warming world? Storm Surge Impacts on Biological Resources in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Traditional ecological knowledge of Mulchatna Caribou Herd phenology, habitat change, subsistence use, and related species interactions Alaska invasive plant identification and record input smartphone app Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Invasive plant identification and record input smartphone app for western Alaska