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This dataset contains rasters that represent mapped habitat suitability indices for 8 shorebird species, a raster that represents mean habitat suitability indices for all 8 species, and a raster that represents the number of species in which the habitat suitability index exceeded the selected threshold value for each pixel. The shorebird species used for this modeling effort are American Golden-Plover [AMGP], Black-bellied Plover [BBPL], Dunlin [DUNL], Long-billed Dowitcher [LBDO], Pectoral Sandpiper [PESA], Red Phalarope [REPH], Red-necked Phalarope [RNPH], and Semipalmated Sandpiper [SESA].
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The Spectacled Eider is a medium-sized sea duck with males easily recognized by their striking“clown-like” head plumage. This species was listed as threatened in 1993 under the EndangeredSpecies Act as it has suffered severe population declines in western Alaska. The Arctic CoastalPlain population may also be declining. In Arctic Alaska, breeding Spectacled Eiders use riverdeltas and wet tundra habitats, including drained-lake basins, flooded wetlands, and islets withina matrix of thaw lakes for both nesting and foraging (Petersen et al. 2000). During the breedingseason, their diet consists primarily of both adult and larval aquatic insects (Petersen et al. 2000).Alaskan breeders spend their winters offshore in...
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To elucidate these potential “bottom up” effects of climate changes to Arctic ungulates and evaluate the trophic mismatch hypothesis, the Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Teck, Inc., and the National Park Service provided funding in 2012-14 to incorporate the calving and summer range of the Western Arctic caribou herd (WAH) into an ongoing inter-agency research and monitoring effort to examine the influences of climate change on the nutrient dynamics of caribou forages. This work is leveraging existing projects on the North Slope of Alaska that are primarily funded through the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative. Field...
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More information is needed about species composition, abundance, or distribution of the microfauna and meiofauna living within the interstitial spaces of the littoral zones along the Beaufort Sea coast. Shorebirds depend on meiofauna for food for pre-migratory fattening and these organisms make important contributions to bioremediation of oil spills.The information obtained from this jointly-funded research can contribute to development of mitigation measures and strategies to reduce potential impacts from post-lease exploration and development. This information need extends to the lower trophic levels forming the base of these complex food webs and the biochemistry that influences these relationships. Their contributions...
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Using a bioclimatic envelope approach, University of Alberta investigators project how the distribution and abundance of boreal forest birds across North America will respond to different scenarios of future climate-change. Investigation emphasis is on mapping and quantifying potential range expansions of boreal bird species into Arctic and subarctic regions across Alaska and Canada. The final products demonstrate a broad continental-scale overview of potential shifts in avian distribution.
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Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factorsis a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicitCormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects ofenvironmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in thespatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus truesurvival. Our...
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Arctic wetlands, where millions of local and migratory birds nest, are composed of a mosaic of ice wedge polygons, non-patterned tundra, and large vegetated drained thaw lake basins. Regional climate projections suggest that evapotranspiration, rainfall, and snowfall will increase, making it difficult to predict how surface water distribution might change and how habitats for the invertebrate resources used by waterbirds will be impacted. This study will focus on evaluating how climate change will affect the invertebrate community, and whether the change in climate (through changes in hydrology and surface energy balance) could induce a trophic mismatch that might alter the growth and survival of shorebird young....
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The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska is an important region for millions of migrating and nesting shorebirds. However, this region is threatened by climate change and increased human development (e.g., oil and gas production) that have the potential to greatly impact shorebird populations and breeding habitat in the near future. Because historic data on shorebird distributions in the ACP are very coarse and incomplete, we sought to develop detailed, contemporary distribution maps so that the potential impacts of climate-mediated changes and development could be ascertained. To do this, we developed and mapped habitat suitability indices for eight species of shorebirds (Black-bellied Plover [Pluvialis squatarola],...
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The Red-throated Loon is the smallest of the world’s five loon species. This species typicallybreeds in low wetlands in both tundra and forested terrain (Barr et al. 2000). They nest on pondedges, sometimes along very small ponds (<1 ha), particularly in parts of their range sympatricwith Pacific Loons (Barr et al. 2000). Red-throated Loons are unique in that they regularlyforage on fish away from their nesting ponds.In Arctic Alaska this often involves flights to theArctic Ocean (Andres 1993). Like Yellow-billed Loons, the North American breedingpopulation, north of 68° latitude, appear to winter primarily in East Asia from the western KurilIslands to the Yellow Sea (J. Schmutz et al., unpublished data). In 1993,...
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The Peregrine Falcon is one of the most ubiquitous bird species with a breeding distributionranging from tundra to the tropics. In Arctic Alaska this bird’s breeding stronghold is found inmajor river systems where cliff ledges abound and serve as preferred nesting sites. PeregrineFalcons prey on a wide variety of bird species ranging from small passerines to medium-sizedducks and will also take small mammals (White et al. 2002). This species travels widely andArctic-breeding Peregrine Falcons make some of the longest migrations of any bird species. TheNorth American subspecies (tundrius) winters in Central and South America (White et al. 2002).The global population is estimated at ~1.2 million individuals (BirdLife...
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Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) willdevelop a model that examines the relationship betweenmeasured steam flow and surface water connectivity betweensummer feeding and overwintering habitats for fish on theNorth Slope.
The Adapt Alaska Collaborative grew out of a set of initiatives to promote climate resilience and adaptation in Alaska. On May 24 and 25, 2017 a group of participants (including representatives of Alaska regional, state and federal agencies and organizations) gathered at a work session to identify next steps to build on the momentum generated by these initiatives toward a more resilient Alaska. At the work session, three working groups formed around specific areas of effort, including a Planning Working Group with the task of identifying ways to streamline the many planning requirements associated with implementing climate resilience and adaptation strategies.The Adapt Alaska Planning Working Group looked at a range...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aleutian Bering Sea Islands LCC data.gov, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
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This project provides a better understanding how linkages among surface-water availability, connectivity, and temperature mediate habitat and trophic dynamics of the Fish Creek Watershed (FCW). These interrelated processes form a shifting mosaic of freshwater habitats across the landscape that can be classified, mapped, understood, and modeled in response to past and future climate and land-use change in a spatial and temporal context. Developing scenarios of freshwater habitat change in this context provides managers and scientists with a flexible template to evaluate a range of potential responses to climate and land-use change. Applying this approach in the FCW is made feasible because of the availability of...
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
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Temperatures are warming fastest at high latitudes and annual temperatures have increased by 2-3˚ C in the Arctic over the second half of the 20th century. Shorebirds respond to cues on their overwintering grounds to initiate long migrations to nesting sites throughout the Arctic. Climate-driven changes in snowmelt and temperature, which drive invertebrate emergence, may lead to a lack of synchrony between the timing of shorebird nesting and the availability of invertebrate prey essential for egg formation and subsequent chick survival. We modeled the biomass of invertebrates captured in modified Malaise traps as a function of accumulated temperature and weather variables for eight North American research camps...
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Climate models project the rapid warming of boreal and arctic regions of NorthAmerica. This has led to predictions that boreal forest vegetation and fauna will track these changes andshift northward into the arctic over the next century. We used a comprehensive dataset of avian pointcountsurveys from across boreal Canada and Alaska, combined with the best-available interpolatedclimate data, to develop bioclimatic niche models of current avian distribution and density for 102 nativespecies of forest songbirds. We then used a downscaling of projected climates in future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) to assess the potential for these species to shift their ranges and increasetheir abundance across North...
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These raster datasets represent output from the Boreal ALFRESCO (Alaska Frame Based Ecosystem Code) model. Boreal ALFRESCO operates on an annual time step, in a landscape composed of 1 x 1 km pixels, a scale appropriate for interfacing with mesoscale climate and carbon models. The last four digits of the file name specifies the year represented by the raster. For example a file named Age_years_historical_1990.tif represents the year 1990. Cell values represent the age of vegetation in years since last fire, with zero (0) indicating burned area in that year. Coverage of this dataset includes much of the state of Alaska (but does exclude Southeastern AK, Kodiak Island, portions of the Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutian...
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Historically, available polar bear den habitat models have been based primarily on the presence of topographic features capable of capturing drifting snow. In any given season, however, the availability and precise location of snowdrifts of sufficient size to accommodate a bear den depends on the antecedent snowfall and wind conditions, and these vary from one year to the next. Thus, suitable topography is a necessary pre-condition, but is not sufficient to accurately predict potential den sites in a given year. To satisfy the requirements of agency and industry managers what is needed is a user-friendly decision-support tool that takes into account the current fall and early-winter meteorological conditions, and...


map background search result map search result map Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Operational Polar Bear Den Mapping FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Shorebird HSI tiff format Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds Interdisciplinary Study of How Climate Change May Affect Wetland Habitats, Invertebrates and Shorebirds Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Appendices from the Changing Climate-Biomes Final Report Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska Stand Age Projections Climate and Fish Migration Factsheet Peregrine Falcon Modeling Avifaunal Responses Executive Summary Climate Effects on Arctic Food Resources: Retrospective Analysis of Rate of Advancement of Invertebrate Phenology Red-throated Loon Spectacled Eider Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone Shorebirds and Invertebrate Distribution on Delta Mudflats along the Beaufort Sea Climate and Fish Migration Factsheet Operational Polar Bear Den Mapping FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Shorebirds and Invertebrate Distribution on Delta Mudflats along the Beaufort Sea Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Interdisciplinary Study of How Climate Change May Affect Wetland Habitats, Invertebrates and Shorebirds Predicting breeding shorebird distributions on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska Shorebird HSI tiff format Peregrine Falcon Red-throated Loon Spectacled Eider Appendices from the Changing Climate-Biomes Final Report Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Stand Age Projections Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds Climate Effects on Arctic Food Resources: Retrospective Analysis of Rate of Advancement of Invertebrate Phenology Modeling Avifaunal Responses Executive Summary Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone