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Abstract (from Ecosphere): Spruce–fir (Picea–Abies) forests of the North American Acadian Forest Region are at risk of disappearing from the northeastern United States and Canada due to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to predict changes in this critical transitional ecosystem in the past, but none have addressed how seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation interact to influence tree species abundance. Inferences have also been limited by contemporary inventory data that could not fully characterize species ranges because they either, (1) only sampled species occurrence after large-scale human disturbance and settlement, or (2) did not span critical geopolitical boundaries...
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...


    map background search result map search result map Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations